PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not going to respond to your trolling, it shows a solidly cold pattern and snow here. Details always fluctuate, you were consistently trying to poo poo everything the past month and we scored about 55" of snow. 

Today is just awful, warm, cloudy, and gross. 

I have not downplayed much over the last month.  Actually sort of the opposite... playing up snow maps that were probably not going to verify.    Its been very impressive in terms cold and snow in many places.

Not so impressive for my area or King County though and that is usually my main focus.   We only had 5 inches of snow in my backyard compared to your 55.  

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

it's a Balmy 53 out

 

shorts, hoody and (((((GASP)))))). Flip Flops

That’s another thing I will rock over here during the summer evenings…Shorts and a hoodie! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

it's a Balmy 53 out

 

shorts, hoody and (((((GASP)))))). Flip Flops

But are you on LSD though.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

But are you on LSD though.

God I hope so

[Cascadia_Wx]

Some thick overcast moving in now. We were 62 earlier but currently down to 61.

[LowerGarfield]

Nice day outside. Fifties and I opened the windows for the first time this season. We also had a window that broke right at the start of the cold season and finally had it fixed. Nice sliding window for airflow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

But are you on LSD though.

CANT EVEN GET TWO SUNNY DAYS IN THIS GOSH DARN CLIMATE GIVE ME MUSHROOMS NOW!

[TT-SEA]

And yes @SilverFallsAndrew I was teasing you with the "what happened to winter" given you have been buried in snow for the last month and its not winter any more.   Thought that seemed obvious.   

[snow_wizard]

The visible sat pic today was pretty interesting.  Still shows a lot of snow on the Oregon Coast range and even the Willapa Hills.  It also shows Western Douglas County still totally white.  My respect for that microclimate just keeps growing.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The visible sat pic today was pretty interesting.  Still shows a lot of snow on the Oregon Coast range and even the Willapa Hills.  It also shows Western Douglas County still totally white.  My respect for that microclimate just keeps growing.

Definitely some snow in Drain, Elkton, Yoncalla and Reedsport earlier this month.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like a 64/36 for PDX today. 62/35 here. Light east winds and mostly sunny until about 3-4pm, at which point mid to high level clouds moved in pretty quickly.

[snow_wizard]

The probability chart they did for places that would reach 60 today failed pretty miserably.  Places they only gave a 20% chance easily made it.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like a 64/36 for PDX today. 62/35 here. Light east winds and mostly sunny until about 3-4pm, at which point mid to high level clouds moved in pretty quickly.

It's supposed to totally clear out late tonight so a lot of places could crash pretty good before sunrise.

I had 63/35 today.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The probability chart they did for places that would reach 60 today failed pretty miserably.  Places they only gave a 20% chance easily made it.

Just makes no sense with temperatures.   Like anyone can tell the difference between 59 and 60 or that it matters.  

I understand there was a push by the NWS to talk more about probabilities since they would talk about things like snowstorms knowing there was chance it could miss an area and then everyone says they were wrong.   

But its absolutely silly to do it with something like whether it reaches a specific temperature.   Way beyond the original intent and into the realm of absurdity. 

[T-Town]

Cushions out. 

[snow_wizard]

Very good news.  The ECMWF has sped up the departure of the cloud cover tonight on the 18z, and even it seems to be too slow on the progression of the cloud band.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just makes no sense with temperatures.   Like anyone can tell the difference between 59 and 60 or that it matters.  

I understand there was a push by the NWS to talk more about probabilities since they would talk about things like snowstorms knowing there was chance it could miss an area and then everyone says they were wrong.   

But its absolutely silly to do it with something like whether it reaches a specific temperature.   Way beyond the original intent and into the realm of absurdity. 

I have to agree.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very good news.  The ECMWF has sped up the departure of the cloud cover tonight on the 18z, and even it seems to be too slow on the progression of the cloud band.

Looks like it does not clear King County until about 6 or 7 a.m. per the ECMWF.    Won't matter out here anyways since the east wind will be going all night.    I personally consider that to be very good news.   

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF also delays the cool down from the south a little more on Sunday afternoon and evening.    Looks like that day has a decent chance to be as warm as today from Olympia northward.

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like it does not clear King County until about 6 or 7 a.m. per the ECMWF.    Won't matter out here anyways since the east wind will be going all night.    I personally consider that to be very good news.   

The frosty mornings with full sunshine the last couple days have been awesome. Would love to see another one tomorrow when I can watch it unfold instead of sitting at my computer talking on a conference call. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA failed to record the official high yesterday or the low this morning.   It did get the high temp this afternoon of 62.  

Based on the hourly readings... it was probably a 62/39 day.   Maybe 38.   That would be around +3 for the day which would break the streak of at or below normal days.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Temperature did unexpectedly spike this afternoon but only made it to 59.3°F. But tomorrow is forecast to be warmer. Not a bad high temperature for a day that started out at 30.8°F.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

The fact subsidence fails to hold along/east of the dateline following the MJO passage confirms the demise of the La Niña background state, assuming the EPS has a decent handle on things.

 

Pretty critical time frame coming up.  I still think weak ENSO this coming winter and bigger Nino next.  Things just aren't advanced enough for a major warm event to develop this year IMO.  Years with big Ninos already are well on their way by this time.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

The frosty mornings with full sunshine the last couple days have been awesome. Would love to see another one tomorrow when I can watch it unfold instead of sitting at my computer talking on a conference call. 

Tomorrow will be spectacular.   I was outside as much as I could between meetings today.   We even enjoyed our first IPA on the deck this afternoon.  

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tomorrow will be spectacular.   I was outside as much as I could between meetings today.   We even enjoyed our first IPA on the deck this afternoon.  

Currently enjoying our first IPAs of the year on the deck. 

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like it does not clear King County until about 6 or 7 a.m. per the ECMWF.    Won't matter out here anyways since the east wind will be going all night.    I personally consider that to be very good news.   

Looks like it's mostly clear by 12z which is about 5am.  The timing is also moving up so we could do it pretty easily by 4am.  Interestingly the latest run shows onshore flow west of Puget Sound and offshore east of Puget Sound for a while tonight.  That could keep dry air in place for the EPSL.  Places that decouple on the east side could get pretty cold.  Gradients will be weak so it looks like a more widespread potential tonight than last night.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tomorrow will be spectacular.   I was outside as much as I could between meetings today.   We even enjoyed our first IPA on the deck this afternoon.  

It felt good today.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty critical time frame coming up.  I still think weak ENSO this coming winter and bigger Nino next.  Things just aren't advanced enough for a major warm event to develop this year IMO.  Years with big Ninos already are well on their way by this time.

Well, Niño-3 is already +0.6C. And many years that transitioned into moderate/strong niños were still -ENSO at this point. So it’s pretty far along, actually.

Downwelling -QBO during boreal spring/summer is also constructive to El Niño development.

[Phil]

That said it doesn’t look like the PDO/PMM will be flipping positive this year, so cold phase niño composites may better predict amplitude.

[Phil]

And surface+subsurface current anomalies are westerly across the equatorial pacific.

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

And surface+subsurface current anomalies are westerly across the equatorial pacific.

Am I in the blue? 

[Phil]

New EPS weeklies are bullish on -PNA/-NAO continuing through much of the spring. Statistically this argues strongly in favor of continued -PDO/-PMM despite the development of El Niño.

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

New EPS weeklies are bullish on -PNA/-NAO continuing through much of the spring. Statistically this argues strongly in favor of continued -PDO/-PMM despite the development of El Niño.

Some of the best news I’ve heard all day.

[T-Town]

1 seed Purdue lost to 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson. 

[Iceresistance]

18 minutes ago, T-Town said:

1 seed Purdue lost to 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson. 

The funny part is That my team was Fairleigh Dickinson on TWF March Madness

[MossMan]

61/34 on the day. Currently 52. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

30 minutes ago, MossMan said:

61/34 on the day. Currently 52. 

51/27 here. Currently 42

[Cold Snap]

63/31 at my place and 58/27 yesterday. Got my 70th freeze this morning!

[Blizzard777]

63/31 currently 54*   It’s coming or I’ll drive to it

 

[RentonHill]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Tomorrow will be spectacular.   I was outside as much as I could between meetings today.   We even enjoyed our first IPA on the deck this afternoon.  

[Blizzard777]

8 hours ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Not sure if anyone knows about this movie that just came out. You can stream it on Vudu. You can also do it on Amazon Video but the trailer is in Spanish (I think) so I did it on Vudu. It's actually pretty good. 

Definitely going to watch!!

[SnowySeeker50]

A balmy 65/37 today. Currently 54 degrees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF also delays the cool down from the south a little more on Sunday afternoon and evening.    Looks like that day has a decent chance to be as warm as today from Olympia northward.

Looks pretty chilly here. Allah be praised.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't drink often anymore, but when I do it is at least 90 proof. 

[TT-SEA]

In addition to Sunday being nice... the GFS gives us another surprise 60ish day on Wednesday now with all the cold air down in CA.    

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In addition to Sunday being nice... the GFS gives us another surprise 60ish day on Wednesday now with all the cold air down in CA.    

 

F that. At least it's snowing up here by Friday morning. 

Edited March 18 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

F that. At least it's snowing up here by Friday morning. 

We will see.   A couple days ago the GFS was showing lots of snow in my area for Tuesday and Wednesday.    Now the Monday - Thursday period looks benign and quiet.  

[MossMan]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

We will see.   A couple days ago the GFS was showing lots of snow in my area for Tuesday and Wednesday.    Now the Monday - Thursday period looks benign and quiet.  

How is my foot of snow looking

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

How is my foot of snow looking

That was the ECMWF.   But the GFS will get there eventually of course since it assumes all of western WA is above 2,000 feet.  

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Well, Niño-3 is already +0.6C. And many years that transitioned into moderate/strong niños were still -ENSO at this point. So it’s pretty far along, actually.

Downwelling -QBO during boreal spring/summer is also constructive to El Niño development.

I was looking at it more from an atmospheric perspective.