PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice evening. Some clouds moving in and currently 35. 42/27 on the day. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Opening soon!

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Doinko said:

130th day below 60 degrees in a row today

Jesse's dream come true

[VancouverIslandSouth]

9 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

In Utah in 1983 and 1984 there were similar scenes of chair lifts needing to be dug out in places, and ski areas having to close due to too much snow. Have memories of riding such lifts.

I believe that was also the case up here in the winter of 1998/1999. It wasn't an amazing winter in the lowlands but there was so much snow in the mountains that were concerns it would take out the power to Vancouver Island as it reached the high voltage lines over the Coastal Range.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

41F and partly cloudy.

[SouthHillFrosty]

What the 

 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What the 

 

Holy cow.

[Thunder98]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What the 

 

awww poor cows! 

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What the 

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Good weekend trends continue on the 0z GFS

[Phishy Wx]

I've never worn socks and sandals in my life.  I also wear flip flops with bare feet all year in spokane.  I also grew up in the carolinas and lots of times did not wear shoes at all as a kid most of the year.   I also like mushrooms and LSD.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I've never worn socks and sandals in my life.  I also wear flip flops with bare feet all year in spokane.  I also grew up in the carolinas and lots of times did not wear shoes at all as a kid most of the year.   I also like mushrooms and LSD.

I am barefoot all summer at home except for when actively working in the yard.   Flip flops and sandals in public places but never with socks.   I think socks would be very uncomfortable on an 80-degree summer day.  

[Phil]

4 hours ago, Doinko said:

130th day below 60 degrees in a row today

Not a very Tim-friendly list there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Not a very Tim-friendly list there.

1954-55 is another solid analog imo. 

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

Yeah just think this could have been you!

This is pretty impressive given rates were like 7-to-1 in most of the area within the deform zone.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I've never worn socks and sandals in my life.  I also wear flip flops with bare feet all year in spokane.  I also grew up in the carolinas and lots of times did not wear shoes at all as a kid most of the year.   I also like mushrooms and LSD.

What about when it snows?

[Phil]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1954-55 is another solid analog imo. 

Doubt it, -ENSO regime has all but terminated.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not a very Tim-friendly list there.

We said the same thing last spring... we all know how that went.   

[Anti Marine Layer]

40 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

awww poor cows! 

Less flatulence

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We said the same thing last spring... we all know how that went.   

Maybe another year where it rains until 4th of July and then gets hot after that with a new 120 F record in Portland during mid-July.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What about when it snows?

I took out the trash with 4" of snow on the drive in flip flops on sunday evening.  meh a little cold and wet but no big deal.  I mean im not going to the store in flip flops in 4" of snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Doubt it, -ENSO regime has all but terminated.

 From an observed weather stand point 1954-55 and 1974-75 were pretty solid. Didn’t say anything about moving forward. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Maybe another year where it rains until 4th of July and then gets hot after that with a new 120 F record in Portland during mid-July.

Rain quit in mid June last year.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I took out the trash with 4" of snow on the drive in flip flops on sunday evening.  meh a little cold and wet but no big deal.  I mean im not going to the store in flip flops in 4" of snow.

I go outside barefoot in the snow all the time. Sandals? That’s kind of weak sauce imo. I typically don’t wear shoes around the property in the summer.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We said the same thing last spring... we all know how that went.   

I remember you whining until after the summer solstice.

Lucky for you this year may very well behave like the inverse of 2022. Substantially warmer/drier spring, but suppressed/impotent 4CH is the difference maker come mid/late summer.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I remember you whining until after the summer solstice.  

Lucky for you this year may very well behave like the inverse of 2022. Substantially warmer/drier spring, but suppressed/impotent 4CH is the difference maker come mid/late summer.

Not for the first 14 days of spring.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I remember you whining until after the summer solstice.  

Lucky for you this year may very well behave like the inverse of 2022. Substantially warmer/drier spring, but suppressed/impotent 4CH is the difference maker come mid/late summer.

Sort of what I am thinking as well... April and May should be much improved over last year but rain will probably be more frequent through the summer.   Maybe something like 2019... which was a pretty nice summer all things considered.   It was warm with many sunny days but wet enough to keep it green all summer.   That would be immensely better than no rain at all like last year and then 2 months of thick smoke in September and October.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wonder if we get some snow tonight. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain is never frequent here in the summer. Only in Tim’s fever dreams. I’m sure this year will not be as wet as last spring as April-June was the wettest on record here. June was actually pretty warm though, disgustingly humid. Interestingly April and May were much colder and wetter from an anomaly perspective down here than further north. Though I understand rain fell on many days up north. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last time we transitioned out of a multi year Nina we ended up with the driest May on record. 2012, the time before that, was a much more balanced and enjoyable spring. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

40 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I've never worn socks and sandals in my life.  I also wear flip flops with bare feet all year in spokane.  I also grew up in the carolinas and lots of times did not wear shoes at all as a kid most of the year.   I also like mushrooms and LSD.

Barefoot most of the warmer months but the winter is too cold for my feet (I’ve tried, it’s miserable). Except for brief forays outside, I do those barefoot year-round (yes, even in the snow). Almost never do any consciousness-altering substances beyond cannabis.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sort of what I am thinking as well... April and May should be much improved over last year but rain will probably be more frequent through the summer.   Maybe something like 2019... which was a pretty nice summer all things considered.   It was warm with many sunny days but wet enough to keep it green all summer.   That would be immensely better than no rain at all like last year and then 2 months of thick smoke in September and October.  

Could very well be. I consider 2019, 2002, and 1997 as the most recent/viable +ENSO analogs to the present situation (I don’t think pre-1997/98 analogs will work in today’s climate regime, but would love to be proven wrong).

Of course can’t truly know until the ENSO situation becomes clearer. The next MJO circuit (early/mid April) will be quite revealing.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Rain is never frequent here in the summer. Only in Tim’s fever dreams. I’m sure this year will not be as wet as last spring as April-June was the wettest on record here. June was actually pretty warm though, disgustingly humid. Interestingly April and May were much colder and wetter from an anomaly perspective down here than further north. Though I understand rain fell on many days up north. 

I said "more" frequent... and that would not be hard to do compared to last year.    And in 2019 it was fairly frequent up here.   It was also well spaced throughout JJA.  

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Barefoot most of the warmer months but the winter is too cold for my feet (I’ve tried, it’s miserable). Except for brief forays outside, I do those barefoot year-round (yes, even in the snow). Almost never do any consciousness-altering substances beyond cannabis.

I’ve shoveled snow barefoot.  Basically never wore shoes as a kid so my soles are like granite, lol.

If it was socially acceptable I probably wouldn’t wear shoes today either.

[TT-SEA]

This was in mid August 2019... it was a good growing season and its was the only time we have not needed to water the garden all summer.  

 

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last time we transitioned out of a multi year Nina we ended up with the driest May on record. 2012, the time before that, was a much more balanced and enjoyable spring. 

It’s like you intentionally gravitate to the years I hate the most.

I could do without 99°F temperatures at 845AM, thanks.

[Anti Marine Layer]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

I remember you whining until after the summer solstice.

Lucky for you this year may very well behave like the inverse of 2022. Substantially warmer/drier spring, but suppressed/impotent 4CH is the difference maker come mid/late summer.

When will the firehose be turned off for California? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could very well be. I consider 2019, 2002, and 1997 as the most recent/viable +ENSO analogs to the present situation (I don’t think pre-1997/98 analogs will work in today’s climate regime, but would love to be proven wrong).

Of course can’t truly know until the ENSO situation becomes clearer. The next MJO circuit (early/mid April) will be quite revealing.

Aside from 2019-20 those were some hideous winters. 02-03 was generationally bad. 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This was in mid August 2019... it was a good growing season and its was the only time we have not needed to water the garden all summer.  

 

You’re gonna trigger a red tide on Puget Sound with all the fertilizer you must use.

We tried sunflowers a couple times over the years. Both times they got flattened by thunderstorm winds.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

You’re gonna trigger a red tide on Puget Sound with all the fertilizer you must use.

We tried sunflowers a couple times over the years. Both times they got flattened by thunderstorm winds.

My wife doesn't allow fertilizer in the garden.  

We bring in fresh top soil every spring and don't need fertilizer.