PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s really hard to garden up here. Short growing season and tons of cold rain into June during a normal year. Nights are pretty chilly and damp in the summer too. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife doesn't allow fertilizer in the garden.  

Your mulch is probably loaded with it, though.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Your mulch is probably loaded with it, though.

Don't think so... other than natural fertilizer.   

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s really hard to garden up here. Short growing season and tons of cold rain into June during a normal year. Nights are pretty chilly and damp in the summer too. 

I don't get that... we plant the garden every year in April and have never had a bad year.   Even last year we planted it in late April and it was going gangbusters by early June with all that warm, humid rain.  

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife doesn't allow fertilizer in the garden.  

We bring in fresh top soil every spring and don't need fertilizer. 

The only thing we fertilize a time or two in the summer are the 3 or so hanging baskets we do. No fertilizer in the garden, or the grass, or anywhere else on the property. Weed control is hand pulling and vinegar. I vowed to never touch roundup again after nearly two decades of applying thousands of gallons of it at my previous jobs. 

[TT-SEA]

This was the garden in mid June last year... following the crazy chilly and wet April and May and very wet first part of June.   And before the warm and dry part of summer had even started.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty amazing how the GOA block / suppressed jet them theme keeps recurring in the models.  Might be a pretty enjoyable spring, but with a lot of chilly nights in such a regime.  I'm going to be interested to see how long it will be before SEA finally has an above normal day.  It's been three weeks now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This was the garden in mid June last year... following the crazy chilly and wet April and May and very wet first part of June.   And before the warm and dry part of summer had even started.

We had 18” of snow in mid April and snow in early May. We don’t have raise beds though. That probably helps. In general though your area is significantly warmer than here. 

[snow_wizard]

I scored freezing min number 70 this morning which ranks third for this century IMBY.  Yet another morning with icy roads as well.

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could very well be. I consider 2019, 2002, and 1997 as the most recent/viable +ENSO analogs to the present situation (I don’t think pre-1997/98 analogs will work in today’s climate regime, but would love to be proven wrong).

Of course can’t truly know until the ENSO situation becomes clearer. The next MJO circuit (early/mid April) will be quite revealing.

I totally agree the next MJO cycle is going to be very important.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I scored freezing min number 70 this morning which ranks third for this century IMBY.  Yet another morning with icy roads as well.

We had about 110-120 in 2011-12 I believe. We could get there this year if we close out march strong and have a have a decently cool April and may. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had 18” of snow in mid April and snow in early May. We don’t have raise beds though. That probably helps. In general though your area is significantly warmer than here. 

We planted the last weekend in April last year... after the snow was done.    It survived May and then just exploded in early June.    

And then really exploded after that... it was a jungle by July. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had 18” of snow in mid April and snow in early May. We don’t have raise beds though. That probably helps. In general though your area is significantly warmer than here. 

I think that is mostly a late winter / early spring thing.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had about 110-120 in 2011-12 I believe. We could get there this year if we close out march strong and have a have a decently cool April and may. 

That extra elevation certainly makes a difference.

Even here we had years that have done 20+ freezing mins after this date.

[Phil]

I knew July 1997 ran cooler than average here but I didn’t look at the details until now.

Much crappier than I anticipated.  Small number of cool days skewing the mean negative. And dry as a bone.

 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

I've never worn socks and sandals in my life.  I also wear flip flops with bare feet all year in spokane.  I also grew up in the carolinas and lots of times did not wear shoes at all as a kid most of the year.   I also like mushrooms and LSD.

Why?  Just sounds ridiculous when it's below zero with snow on the ground.

I also know a guy that had a bad trip on LSD.  I will never forget how haunted his eyes looked when I saw him after that.  Dangerous sheit.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I knew July 1997 ran cooler than average here but I didn’t look at the details until now.

Much crappier than I anticipated.  Small number of cool days skewing the mean negative.

 

I'm just not seeing 1997.  ENSO SST's were much further advanced toward a Nino that year than present.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Why?  Just sounds ridiculous when it's below zero with snow on the ground.

I can get by with sandals during part of the winter but I draw the line when there is snow on the ground.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just not seeing 1997.  ENSO SST's were much further advanced toward a Nino that year than present.

Maybe not that extreme, but they’re evolving similarly in the ways that matter, long term.

That may change if the April MJO short circuits east of the dateline, but I wouldn’t count on that.

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The only thing we fertilize a time or two in the summer are the 3 or so hanging baskets we do. No fertilizer in the garden, or the grass, or anywhere else on the property. Weed control is hand pulling and vinegar. I vowed to never touch roundup again after nearly two decades of applying thousands of gallons of it at my previous jobs. 

Have you removed that dying Alder tree yet?

[TT-SEA]

No idea what it means... but since we are comparing 1997 to this year this is how SSTAs compare at this point.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No idea what it means... but since we are comparing 1997 to this year this is how SSTAs compare at this point.

Heh, even with warm-biased OISST trend we’re still running ahead of 1997 in terms of SSTA. But it’ll be hard to keep pace given what happened in April that year.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Heh, even with warm-biased OISST trend we’re still running ahead of 1997 in terms of SSTA. But it’ll be hard to keep pace given what happened in April that year.

Yeah... obviously 1997 went on very fast track soon after.   It seems pretty unlikely that would repeat this year.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF still looks great for Thursday - Saturday and it remains dry until late Sunday.   Pretty much identical to its 12Z run.  

[TT-SEA]

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wonder if we get some snow tonight. 

Did you get any snow?

37 and raining here this morning... c-zone just to the north so we have a south wind here.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Did you get any snow?

37 and raining here this morning... c-zone just to the north so we have a south wind here.  

Yes, we got a light dusting. Not measurable, just a trace. Currently 34 after a low of 32.

Edited March 15, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

Have you removed that dying Alder tree yet?

Oh “Phil” the tree? That’s what I named it, and no of course not! Phil will remain standing for years yet! 

[westcoastexpat]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty amazing how the GOA block / suppressed jet them theme keeps recurring in the models.  Might be a pretty enjoyable spring, but with a lot of chilly nights in such a regime.  I'm going to be interested to see how long it will be before SEA finally has an above normal day.  It's been three weeks now.

Definitely looks like an above normal day on the table for Friday/Saturday 

[MossMan]

Was dumping buckets of liquid around 3am with a temp of 36 degrees. Then it froze up at daybreak, it’s quite icy out! Currently 32 degrees.

.19” overnight, 3.19” on the month. 

[AlTahoe]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty amazing how the GOA block / suppressed jet them theme keeps recurring in the models.  Might be a pretty enjoyable spring, but with a lot of chilly nights in such a regime.  I'm going to be interested to see how long it will be before SEA finally has an above normal day.  It's been three weeks now.

We are gonna finish with either the #1 or #2 snowiest winter. All of the top 5 had cold snowy springs well into May. Remember 2011? I think we are in for a repeat. 

[Phil]

Have been getting 50-60mph winds for 24 hours now. Apparently we lost multiple window screens but I’ve only been able to track down 1 of them. Assuming the others are in orbit somewhere.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Have been getting 50-60mph winds for 24 hours now. Apparently we lost multiple window screens but I’ve only been able to track down 1 of them. Assuming the others are in orbit somewhere.  

Partly cloudy is the best you can do?

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Partly cloudy is the best you can do?

Actually not a cloud in the sky. A Tim dreamscape.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Chilly batch of showers moved through overnight. Currently mostly cloudy and 40 after a low of 39.

[westcoastexpat]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

No idea what it means... but since we are comparing 1997 to this year this is how SSTAs compare at this point.

Surprised how anomalously warm it is now - looks like a rapid transition taking place

FWIW the Australian BOM has issued an El Nino watch already.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Some wet snow in a fading c-zone here over the last hour... a little slushy accumulation.     Appears to be ending now.  

[westcoastexpat]

Anyone else excited about some sun and 60 degrees? 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Anyone else excited about some sun and 60 degrees? 

Not going to happen.   There was "massive improvement" on the 18Z GFS yesterday.   

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some wet snow in a fading c-zone here over the last hour... a little slushy accumulation.     Appears to be ending now.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

That's about what we got. But it stuck a little better given everything still has snow.