January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... a couple people on here give me way more power over their emotions than should be possible. Why? I wish they would stop but I guess I am the almighty on here to them. Its model data... sometimes its good and sometimes its not so good. Sometimes its both!

It wasn't the data. It was your impeccable timing.

[Requiem]

The discrepancies between the models at only three days or so out is pretty impressive. Who knows what'll happen next week.

[Requiem]

I'm not very trusting of the EURO right now. I feel it hasn't been too accurate as of late.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm not very trusting of the EURO right now. I feel it hasn't been too accurate as of late.

 

Isn't it generally the best for snow?

[Requiem]

Isn't it generally the best for snow?

 

I was going by the placement of the low pressure systems this week, as the GFS and EURO differ a lot. But this season the EURO has typically been wrong. I remember when it insisted on slamming a 970 mb low with lots of rain into Ocean Shores for an entire week of runs before the GFS solution of a 1007 mb low turned out to be correct.

[MossMan]

[ShawniganLake]

If the gfs verifies it would be the largest overrunning event for hood canal in ten years. And probable for other places as well

January 2012?

[MossMan]

And my couple of inches on Christmas morning 2017...The needle was threaded successfully a few times last winter...hopefully I will have similar success this season.

[Requiem]

January 2012?

 

Interestingly I believe that regime brought several very powerful lows straight into coastal areas too.

[HighlandExperience]

I forgot that it snowed in Feb. nothing as memorable as memorable as Christmas though.

 

Mossman was in a good location as usual for feb snow.

[Deweydog]

Oops, missed this gem. Already happened!

Do u think its gonna snow???

[Phil]

We actually could be looking at a 20+ day wind reversal up at 65N/10mb. That would be one of the longest events on record.

 

I have little doubt that high latitude blocking/-NAM will develop given the prolific nature of this event. There’s just a fluky/temporary restraint on the conduits to downward transfer by the ERW/tropical forcing feedbacks (given the initial state of AAM/Indo-Pacific MJO).

 

However, with westerly momentum deposition already ongoing in the deep tropics, it’s only a matter of time before the Indo-Pacific machine shuts off and large scale divergence moves over the WHEM.

[Bryant]

Just put me on ignore. Obviously you cannot handle my evil mind games.

 

I literally never respond to your posts unless you are freaking out over something and attacking me. So there will never be any interaction between us... and then you don't have to see all those ECMWF snow maps either.

There are many other members here who could dump Euro maps from Weatherbell. Those people however aren't delusional

[Gradient Keeper]

1-3-19 4:37 PM [Model Countdown]

Next up....

*00z NAM begins in.... 1 hour 3 minutes (5:40 PM)

 

Later this evening....

00z GFS in 2 hours 50 minutes (7:27 PM)

00z GEM/CMC in 3 hours 13 (7:50 PM)

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 8 minutes (9:45 PM)

 

Now that we're within that 2-4 day window the question is which model blinks first? Does the GFS stick to its guns showing deeper, compact lows and a very real wind storm potential along with WRF/NAM/ICON/FV3 model camp? Or does the ECMWF stick to its guns showing a weaker scenario and splitting energy inside 130 W to the Coast more inline with the GEM? Not sure. If I were a betting man, which I am I would factor in the fact that we're in a weak Nino currently and I would lean more towards the ECMWF/GEM. The weather geek in me is heavily rooting for the GFS/WRF! We shall find out soon.

 

With that being said, Think Cold and SNOW!!!!

❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It'll probly be the EC but it's like a ballgame rooting for the underdog.

[Requiem]

 

1-3-19 4:37 PM [Model Countdown]

Next up....

*00z NAM begins in.... 1 hour 3 minutes (5:40 PM)

 

Later this evening....

00z GFS in 2 hours 50 minutes (7:27 PM)

00z GEM/CMC in 3 hours 13 (7:50 PM)

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 8 minutes (9:45 PM)

 

Now that we're within that 2-4 day window the question is which model blinks first? Does the GFS stick to its guns showing deeper, compact lows and a very real wind storm potential along with WRF/NAM/ICON/FV3 model camp? Or does the ECMWF stick to its guns showing a weaker scenario and splitting energy inside 130 W to the Coast more inline with the GEM? Not sure. If I were a betting man, which I am I would factor in the fact that we're in a weak Nino currently and I would lean more towards the ECMWF/GEM. The weather geek in me is heavily rooting for the GFS/WRF! We shall find out soon.

 

With that being said, Think Cold and SNOW!!!!

❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

 

 

Then again, the EURO handled the lows back in December absolutely horribly. But even the weak EC has some fun activity next week, so in all things look active!

[Phil]

I wonder if winter will once again extend into April/May for much of the country this year.

 

There was some wicked April cold in both of the last two SSW years (2013, 2018).

[TT-SEA]

I wonder if winter will once again extend into April/May for much of the country this year.

 

There was some wicked April cold in both of the last two SSW years (2013, 2018).

 

That often means warm out here.  

[Requiem]

I wonder if winter will once again extend into April/May for much of the country this year.

 

There was some wicked April cold in both of the last two SSW years (2013, 2018).

 

And your dreamy March nor'easters. I have a fetish for that March 2nd storm last year.

[wxmet]

Pretty classic isentropic lift generated snowfall sounding at KSEA on the 18z GFS. Heavy wet snow before transitioning to rain.

 

[Jbolin]

Tim - you know that we know that you could care less about snow that is just slop and you often eagerly look forward to its departure. What you don't know if that I could give a s**t if you care or not, no need to be a ****. Want to post the map that sucks more joy out of a room for snow and cold enthusiasts in a snow starved multi year stretch where hope springs January, then post your torch maps and add your snarky bit about slop. Want to understand why a bunch of people take it personally, then call it the infallible King Euro map until the WRF shows you clouds in June. Don't be a ****.

 

Bryant - You're not Spartacus taking on the Roman Elite who is holding up all of the snow in the Issaquah Alps to bask in the pain of the poor Puget Plebs, you're a guy who seems to post more angry things about Tim than post happy things about snow. Most of us like the happy stuff, not the angry stuff.

 

Everyone else - back and fourth and personal attacks will result in mod previews.

Oh , dad's pissed

[Requiem]

I dont think you know what that word means.

 

Don't assume.

[Esquimalt]

Don't assume.

Assuming makes an a** of you and me. Do you have an a** fetish?

[Requiem]

Now you have me thinking of that American Pie scene but with a slushy snowball.

 

That's something I did not think I'd be thinking today.

 

[Requiem]

Assuming makes an a** of you and me. Do you have an a** fetish?

 

I have an assuming fetish....

[Esquimalt]

[Requiem]

more of a windstorm fetish I feel.

 

Ya got me, now, no kink shaming pls

[Phil]

And your dreamy March nor'easters. I have a fetish for that March 2nd storm last year.

Yeah, I got 5 snowflakes with that one. Epic stuff.

 

That big daddy downsloper on the backside probably would’ve pushed you over the edge, though.

[Requiem]

Yeah, I got 5 snowflakes with that one. Epic stuff.

 

That big daddy downsloper on the backside probably would’ve pushed you over the edge, though.

 

That one was incredible. Ridge over Ohio, low pressure area moving north...

 

It was a near perfect setup for high winds.

[Requiem]

Anyways, I genuinely think the Puget Sound has a chance at some good snow next week. Looks like a week of serious possibilities for many types of weather. I just wish that models would be less splitty with some of these lows, but GFS and WRF insist on that strong low giving PDX-EUG a good storm and then of course heavy wet snow for Seattle.

[Kayla]

Really threading the needle on this one and the GFS is the only model on board...

[Requiem]

It will just be nice to get a little bit of time with some big white flakes in the air. Still looking forward to how my backyard does as we are in a somewhat sheltered spot for southerly winds and the CZ for the South Everett to Stanwood is the stuff of legends, but I dont think I'll see that until the second low passes.

 

Even for PDX (which is the worst possible area for this setup it seems) the GFS shows maybe a wet inch or two in spots. The wind possibility is more probable for areas south of Olympia.

[TT-SEA]

54 at SEA today... 4 degrees shy of the record.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Near-record warmth...we have been way overdue for some of that.

[Requiem]

Near-record warmth...we have been way overdue for some of that.

 

/:

[ShawniganLake]

54 at SEA today... 4 degrees shy of the record.

If even cracked 50 up here today. With over 3.25” of rain and counting

[ShawniganLake]

Anyways, I genuinely think the Puget Sound has a chance at some good snow next week. Looks like a week of serious possibilities for many types of weather. I just wish that models would be less splitty with some of these lows, but GFS and WRF insist on that strong low giving PDX-EUG a good storm and then of course heavy wet snow for Seattle.

You’ve got the NAVGEM on your side for wind.

 

[Esquimalt]

You’ve got the NAVGEM on your side for wind.

 

15F5DB5F-894F-457E-909E-3A5E9D29869D.png

Is what the navgem showing a snow setup here?

[HateVegasWeather]

iFred. You got mail

[ShawniganLake]

Is what the navgem showing a snow setup here?

Likely a heavy wet snow in the NW quadrant of the low. It is the NAVGEM though. Sometimes it’s okay and sometimes it’s horrible.