January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Warmer runs ahead...

Of course you would.

[Jesse]

If this even comes close to verifying, the 2010s will easily go down as the decade where February got its groove back, if nothing else.

[Perturbed Member]

The 12z King EURO shows snow down to sea level for pretty much most of the PNW starting Sunday night into most of Monday. Lots of snow chances next week.

 

 

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Painful shadowing going on but we can worry about those details later. 

 

 

I feel much better now having the entire euro suite behind this and some run to run consistency on at least some models. 

 

Hopefully GFS surrenders soon. 

[BLI snowman]

If this even comes close to verifying, the 2010s will easily go down as the decade where February got its groove back, if nothing else.

 

If we score next month it'll actually be about to the point where February > January for the 1985 to present period overall. At least for snow and actual arctic airmasses, maybe not overall temp averages.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Painful shadowing going on but we can worry about those details later. 

 

 

I feel much better now having the entire euro suite behind this and some run to run consistency on at least some models. 

 

Hopefully GFS surrenders soon. 

 

Springfield gets good upsloping from either cold onshore or offshore from winds down the valley. If we can get cold enough those totals for the s valley might be a bit higher. Dallas-Corvallis will get screwed again.   They can't buy a break.  They are the most precip-shadowed area in the Willamette Valley so it makes sense.

 

Gonna need a smoke after these model runs.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like your classic oak bay/downtown convergence. The last major one was last February 23rd of last year

I'm not familiar with your convergence zones up there but that's good to hear. We also did well down here last February.

[Gradient Keeper]

I was super busy all morning and missed the 12z runs. My thoughts are the new FV3 is strikingly similar to the ECMWF through Day 5-6. The GEM and GFS are more progressive to an extent. The main difference is amplification. You can see on both the FV3, ECMWF there is a finger of positive anomalies and higher heights jutting up through eastern Alaska. That is key to provide the support to give the arctic trough over BC to nudge it southward towards us. It is very encouraging seeing the ECMWF possibly showing run to run consistency for this colder/snowy solution. It is good to see the EPS trending colder. We do still have a ways to go, but this is looking pretty decent thus far. I would be even more encouraged to see the block at Day 3-4 developing stronger and if we were to see that the block would hold that much longer Days 5-7 and the arctic air would drop another 150-200 miles southward over us. Beyond day 8 looks like there is potential for the block to reorganize even more favorably. Long range looks real similar to the Weeklies. Another thing to point out is with arctic air moving out off the southwestern BC coast that could lead to cyclogenesis and a stronger system dropping south with the colder air which would be a much snowier scenario. It's something to keep an eye on. Onto 00z. OH and yeah, the Drunk Uncle. Let's see how soon the GFS and GEM come around to this Cold and SNOW solution.

 

18z GFS in 56 minutes

00z GFS In 6 hours 56 minutes

00z GEM in 7 hours 19 minutes

00z ECMWF in 9 hours 14 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

It's REAL NICE to have the EURO/EPS on board, maybe fully on board leading the way.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Painful shadowing going on but we can worry about those details later.

 

 

I feel much better now having the entire euro suite behind this and some run to run consistency on at least some models.

 

Hopefully GFS surrenders soon.

Yeah, we can worry about the finer details later. Even then you can get surprises like with the February 18 snowstorm last year for some parts of PDX Metro.

 

I'm excited that the EURO shows multiple snow chances for next week. The GFS and GEM should come around sooner or later.

[Blizzard777]

Yeah, we can worry about the finer details later. Even then you can get surprises like with the February 18 snowstorm last year for some parts of PDX Metro.

I'm excited that the EURO shows multiple snow chances for next week. The GFS and GEM should come around sooner or later.

Never take surprises for granted!

[Gradient Keeper]

Another key difference the FV3, ECMWF show energy held back a bit further into the Western Bering sea and the GFS, GEM show it over the western Coast of Alaska. I could absolutely see the FV3, ECWMF improve the amplification for a full on blast too. 25-30% chance.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It's REAL NICE to have the EURO/EPS on board, maybe fully on board leading the way.

Here's the 12z EURO EPS out to day 15. Blocking stays in place offshore, it looks like we're going to have lots of chances to score in the next 2 to 3 weeks.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If the GFS flips on the druncle this place is gonna go bonkers. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Here's the 12z EURO EPS out to day 15. Blocking stays in place offshore, it looks like we're going to have lots of chances to score in the next 2 to 3 weeks.

 

Encouraging. I'd like to see the energy over the Western Bering held back and improved amplification. I'm not complaining however. Thanks for posting.

[Blizzard777]

Meanwhile 46* and beautiful

Perfect weather for landscaping crew finishing up my patio.

Say goodbye to mud and grass

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Never take surprises for granted!

I won't for now on. I wasn't expecting anything so I was kind of bummed that I missed most of it. When I finally looked outside my window there was already 2-3 inches on the ground.

 

Fortunately there would be 2 more snowstorms to come that week that I was able to enjoy from start to finish.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Also, the region is going to be brought to its knees if this happens and we have more than 2 inches widespread from EUG to YVR.  Tons of folks around town haven't been paying attention to forecasts and aren't watching the news. The weather has been so monotonous here that people are just assuming that will continue.  This is going to hit like a ton of bricks...if it pans out.

[Chewbacca Defense]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Had a low of 34 in town.  EUG got down to 32 again so score another one there. Only 45 right now so a bit cooler than I was expecting.  Beautiful sunshine.

 

This should hopefully have a nice rise in numbers in the weeks to come. 

[Front Ranger]

If this even comes close to verifying, the 2010s will easily go down as the decade where February got its groove back, if nothing else.

 

If this works out, that will mean 2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2019 all had meaningful lowland events.

 

As opposed to just 3 Februaries in the 2000s, 4 in the 1990s, 4 in the 80s, and 5 in the 70s.

[MossMan]

I’m not even going to tell my wife, just going to let it be a surprise!! Really need to get my new weather station up and running!!!

[Front Ranger]

I’m not even going to tell my wife, just going to let it be a surprise!! Really need to get my new weather station up and running!!!

 

Let it hit her like a ton of bricks!!

[Perturbed Member]

18z ICON is underway, hopefully it does something useful. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yes, don't day a goddam thing.

[Blizzard777]

[Blizzard777]

I’m not even going to tell my wife, just going to let it be a surprise!! Really need to get my new weather station up and running!!!

Phone apps have already littered FB with a snowflake

[Andrew.]

No one breath

[TigerWoodsLibido]

No one breath

 

Not a single one?   Also, should amend...unless you're inhaling cannabis.

[BLI snowman]

Talking to folks in Atlanta and sounds like they got blanked. So all those schools closed for nothing!

 

Looking at pictures from the area it looks like they got a dusting up north at best. So with my “the SE gets the goods and we get screwed” index, we are back in play for the potential for something to happen.

 

Totally crazy to me that they would even do that. None of the models really indicated much of anything down there so it's not even a legitimate bust.

[Andrew.]

Not a single one? Also, should amend...unless you're inhaling cannabis.

Naw, just mai tai's in Maui. Brain cells are gone now, along with proper grammar.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Naw, just mai tai's in Maui. Brain cells are gone now, along with proper grammar.

 

I hope you are gonna get back in time for the goodies...if they materialise. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like the icon is going to dig more.

[Andrew.]

I hope you are gonna get back in time for the goodies...if they materialise.

Yep! Fly back into PDX Saturday evening just in time....hopefully

[Guest Sounder]

If this works out, that will mean 2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2019 all had meaningful lowland events.

 

As opposed to just 3 Februaries in the 2000s, 4 in the 1990s, 4 in the 80s, and 5 in the 70s.

So... 5 events in a decade compared to 3, 4, 4, and... 5. What a weird decade!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So... 5 events in a decade compared to 3, 4, 4, and... 5. What a weird decade!!!

 

I'm trying to imagine JFK saying this.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z ICON(Hasselhoff model) Day 5. BITTER cold into central and southern BC to nearly the Canadian border and seems the deep, arctic air is progressing nicely well west of the Canadian Rockies too.

 

[MossMan]

[Gradient Keeper]

ICON also shows the block strengthening Day 4-5 with a good degree of amplification.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

ICON also shows the block strengthening Day 4-5 with a good degree of amplification.

 

 

That crazy tilted horseshoe of Arctic cold is so beautiful on historic weather maps.  This might set up just right to do that.

 

Or it might not...cannot let the guard down.

[Front Ranger]

So... 5 events in a decade compared to 3, 4, 4, and... 5. What a weird decade!!!

 

Yeah. Although 2011 was the most anomalous, region-wide Arctic air mass the PNW had seen in February since 1989. And 2014 had the most significant, widespread lowland snowfall (with several events) of any February probably since 1990.