MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I'm already on the fence on staying here or going to my cabin. Looks like it will be very cold there if those 850 temps happen. I was there for a strong arctic push a few years ago and watched it go from 35 degrees to minus 5 in a few hrs and that was really neat. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 At 162 hours the ICON still has PDX at sub 510 thickness, not a quick hitter on all models. The EPS kept the block in a favorable place for quite a while. My gut feeling is the cold will last longer than what the GFS currently shows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 At 162 hours the ICON still has PDX at sub 510 thickness, not a quick hitter on all models. The EPS kept the block in a favorable place for quite a while. My gut feeling is the cold will last longer than what the GFS currently shows. yeah even if it moderates in the upper levels there doesn’t seem to be much to scour out the lower levels. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 At 162 hours the ICON still has PDX at sub 510 thickness, not a quick hitter on all models. The EPS kept the block in a favorable place for quite a while. My gut feeling is the cold will last longer than what the GFS currently shows. It USUALLY does stick around longer than anticipated. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Gfs is trying something around hr 240 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 GFS is very close to something pretty good in the mid-range. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 How can we pull up November 2010 maps to compare? Sh.t i bet MossMan has them on vhs!! 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 So are we going to pretend like this setup doesn’t totally suck this morning? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 It USUALLY does stick around longer than anticipated. The EPS has been insistent on it staying cold for a couple weeks. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 GFS now quite there in the mid-long range, but close. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The EPS has been insistent on it staying cold for a couple weeks. Yeah this feels like a week or longer event with a couple chances of snow. Feels more like a old school pattern and not the super dry pushes of arctic air we've had the last few years. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Yeah this feels like a week or longer event with a couple chances of snow. Feels more like a old school pattern and not the super dry pushes of arctic air we've had the last few years. Low solar has finally asserted itself. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 So are we going to pretend like this setup doesn’t totally suck this morning? You know I'm trying, but its hard to be negative about the 12z runs SO FAR. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 You know I'm trying, but its hard to be negative about the 12z runs SO FAR. I'm glad because that comment was definitely targeted at you, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Really surprised by the GEM and ICON this morning. I expected the GFS would continue to improve, but I expected the other models would start moving more towards it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I'm glad because that comment was definitely targeted at you, lol. I know. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Nice to wake up to a regional snow map. BTW I haven't said a word to anyone... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Well, the Andrew model is on board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I would imagine local weather forecasters are going to start taking the cold a little more seriously by this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Interestingly 850mb temps for PDX are about 2C warmer on the 12z GFS than the 06z. 12z Bottoms out at -9C. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Interestingly 850mb temps for PDX are about 2C warmer on the 12z GFS than the 06z. 12z Bottoms out at -9C. Not so here. Ensembles are about 2 degrees cooler. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Not so here. Ensembles are about 2 degrees cooler. I'm talking about the operational run. That being said, I thought the 06z was kind of funky, it did not look like a pattern which would produce -11C 850mb temps at PDX. The 500mb and surface patterns were much better on the 12z. For Vancouver BC, the 06z and 12z GFS were pretty much identical in terms of coldest 850mb temps. -13C on the 12z, -14C on the 06z. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The op is the warm outlier again for pdx, -7.9 op and -9.7 for mean. Many members in the -10 to -12 range too. The op is also the second warmest member for Tuesday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 It does remind me of November 2010.Were the days leading up to the 2010 arctic front quite a bit different than this is looking. We had close to a foot of snow on the 19th-20th, which was a day or 2 before the arctic front arrived. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Were the days leading up to the 2010 arctic front quite a bit different than this is looking. We had close to a foot of snow on the 19th-20th, which was a day or 2 before the arctic front arrived. Yeah there was a period of cold onshore flow the days prior to the 2010 event. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The op is the warm outlier again for pdx, -7.9 op and -9.7 for mean. Many members in the -10 to -12 range too. The op is also the second warmest member for Tuesday. So far the 12z ensemble appears to be slightly cooler overall. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 In this pattern the snow maps will change every run. We will be saying the same thing 24hrs from the event.Boy I hope so I’m tired of seeing my location in the the snow shadow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 How can we pull up November 2010 maps to compare? Sh.t i bet MossMan has them on vhs!!How much snow did Seattle area get that November? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Boy I hope so I’m tired of seeing my location in the the snow shadow I hear ya. Been much the same in Monmouth, OR. Glad I moved to Springfield which typically sees more snow than EUG somehow. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 How much snow did Seattle area get that November?Not sure. few inches in Seattle proper. I had about 5 but also 55mph north winds. That was the strongest outflow in my area since December 1990. The low crossed from ocean shores to Olympia then east. Not a huge snow event but very dynamic storm. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Boy I hope so I’m tired of seeing my location in the the snow shadowWayyyy to early to be worried about that detail son. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 FV3 looking good still. Showing a potential reload at hour 240 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Fv3 12z shows more snow for sure and no snow shadow. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 How much snow did Seattle area get that November? We had about a foot here... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Like 3rd or 4th run in a row on the FV-3 that is a step back. This one more significantly so than the others. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Like 3rd or 4th run in a row on the FV-3 that is a step back. This one more significantly so than the others. Had to make a "negative" post. It would still be good at face value. And keeps the cold around more than some of the other models. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Looks like another "polar vortex" drops from the north pole down into Central Canada in the long range on the FV-3. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I think Tim from early winter hacked Andrew’s account. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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