Blizzard777 Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 What a beautiful day..no coat needed 55/33 and a little spotty shower this evening with and exciting week ahead of the unknown 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Not sure this nam is gonna go well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Not sure this nam is gonna go well Not looking good... way west. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Angry winds Icon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 What happened to Sunday? This run makes the 18Z run look really good. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 It's not further west than the 18z? It actually moves NNE from hr 69 to hr 78. There's just that weird new low on the Washington coast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 It's not further west than the 18z? It actually moves NNE from hr 69 to hr 78. It initially was then turned back. Cold air all went out in the ocean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 There's just that weird new low on the Washington coast Its way west of the 18Z run. Terrible run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 We now have new worst case scenario... the 00Z NAM. It actually agrees almost perfectly with the bad 18Z GFS at 84 hours. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 That looks like a nice snowstorm setup on the NAM if it the low stalls a little further north and closer to the island Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 We now have new worst case scenario... the 00Z NAM. it almost looks like it would be more wet, and goodFor offshore flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 it almost looks like it would be more wet, and goodFor offshore flow.Its not that bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Strong low off our coast that will probably make for a good snow storm for some places. 989mb also. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 models are all over the place! hope the euro stays strong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Strong low off our coast that will probably make for a good snow storm for some places. 989mb also.I don't think a big enough precipitation field is being shown on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Trough is farther west on the NAM 00z with the low occluding off-shore. Models still don’t have a good idea on the energy that’s going to be traversing through the northern Pacific over the next 2-3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Well... if it keeps going west then at least some remnants of the blob will enjoy the snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 We now have new worst case scenario... the 00Z NAM. It actually agrees almost perfectly with the bad 18Z GFS at 84 hours. With the amazing ECMWF as a backdrop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Its not that bad.For who? It's a complete non-event for western WA and OR. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Its closing time.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 18z was clearly up to its old tricks again. Pesky motherf*cker... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 For who? It's a complete non-event for western WA and OR. For BC, probably. Honestly almost no matter what happens looks like BC will get something. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I guess I'm crazy because I don't think the 00z NAM is that bad. It introduces a new wrinkle with the low sitting and spinning off the WA coast, strengthening ever so slightly as it does so. Good potential for better precip amounts, if you ask me. Certainly not as bad as the 18z GFS taking it all the way down the coastline.I thought the same thing. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 For who? It's a complete non-event for western WA and OR.all of western wa? Nope. That low will be rotating bands up and most will be snow. Last frame shows this. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I guess I'm crazy because I don't think the 00z NAM is that bad. It introduces a new wrinkle with the low sitting and spinning off the WA coast, strengthening ever so slightly as it does so. Good potential for better precip amounts, if you ask me. Certainly not as bad as the 18z GFS taking it all the way down the coastline.It literally doing that at 84 hours. It's going down the coast. You are just being misled by the bands rotating around the main low. Compare the precip map at 84 hours to 18Z GFS at 90 hours. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 all of western wa? Nope. That low will be rotating bands up and most will be snow. Last frame shows this. I guess for PDX south then, if anywhere. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Icon out to hour 15 looks like the nam, we’re screwed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Big upward jump on the 18z ensembles. Mean only bottoms out just under -5C for PDX. Compared to -10C yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Big upward jump on the 18z ensembles. Mean only bottoms out just under -5C for PDX. Compared to -10C yesterday. 182E7D9B-3F4B-45B6-AC2B-92993C16EB69.png Ouch. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Ouch.Yeah. Maybe the 00z runs (excluding the NAM) will start turning things around. At very least this looks to still be our coolest pattern of the winter. Though that really isn’t saying much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Uh... Am I looking at the right model suite? How is this "going down the coast"? It literally pulls north and by it I mean the low center, not the bands.It is... you are just not wanting to see it. 00Z NAM at 84 hours: 18Z GFS at 90 hours... And here was the 18Z GFS just 12 hours later: The entire thing is rotating down the coast. If you watch the NAM you can see the same thing. You have focus on the center of the ULL. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Yeah. Maybe the 00z runs (excluding the NAM) will start turning things around. At very least this looks to still be our coolest pattern of the winter. Though that really isn’t saying much. I really hope so, because as far as this year goes every single other place in the US has received (or is soon due to receive) at least some interesting weather except our drab corner. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Wow yeah. I dozed off, woke up and see 00z NAM is a Winter Cancel for everyone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Wow yeah. I dozed off, woke up and see 00z NAM is a Winter Cancel for everyone.Onto euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 No need for a night shift tonight. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Wow yeah. I dozed off, woke up and see 00z NAM is a Winter Cancel for everyone. This is so sad. We live in a region where things fall apart so easily and it so difficult just to get an inch of snow. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I'm not seeing it because it's not there, Tim. You are extrapolating out past hour 84 and using the 18z GFS as an assumption of what will happen. That is not the same as the 00z NAM showing the low going down the coast, which is what I was talking about. Two completely different things. It is there. You are being fooled by the lobe rotating to the NE at the end of the run. The GFS had the exact same thing. When it rounds the top of the ULL... the southward progression continues. You will probably see the same thing on the 00Z GFS and be able to go beyond 84 hours. Its all the same... the NAM just stops before it becomes really obvious but it going in the same direction. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 This is so sad. We live in a region where things fall apart so easily and it so difficult just to get an inch of snow. Get ready for this to keep happening more often going forward. Our access to Arctic air keeps getting further cut off every year. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Going to be a great couple days of 30 to 40 degree weather with a little sloppy snow. Truly a classic PNW result and it is better than nothing. Even without snow at least we get a little cooler weather. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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