3/5 to 3/14 - Classic Multi-storm event for the first half of March

[Grizzcoat]

GEFS-

[Grizzcoat]

Euro Kuchera

[ToastedRavs]

Absolutely shithousery from Des Moines on the discussion.  Don't even want to post it, but they should be ashamed of their lack of interest/details/analysis.  More than half the posters here could post something way better than that discussion.  I hope they read this, and respond. What a joke. For a so called detailed discussion,  it lacked both details and discussion.  Another government job where they get no reprimand for absolute bare minimum done.

  Rant over. Hope Des Moines gets pounded all weekend long, not for my love of snow, but for them to feel ashamed for their lack of details.  They did update the grids this AM. For RAIN. And Rain only.  The grass is white and has been snowing for hours. Okay, now rant over!

[Grizzcoat]

10 minutes ago, ToastedRavs said:

Absolutely shithousery from Des Moines on the discussion.  Don't even want to post it, but they should be ashamed of their lack of interest/details/analysis.  More than half the posters here could post something way better than that discussion.  I hope they read this, and respond. What a joke. For a so called detailed discussion,  it lacked both details and discussion.  Another government job where they get no reprimand for absolute bare minimum done.

  Rant over. Hope Des Moines gets pounded all weekend long, not for my love of snow, but for them to feel ashamed for their lack of details.  They did update the grids this AM. For RAIN. And Rain only.  The grass is white and has been snowing for hours. Okay, now rant over!

Most of us on this forum are biased. I get it. It's a winter weather forum for the most part and few (if any us are professional forecasters ) but- for the  NWS DMX to continue the warm bias in headlines simply amazes me along with the lack of detail in the AFD.  Fine if NWX DMX wants to go with what they are ( they are pro's after all) but a simple discount (and the  why's and why nots) would be appreciated. For being pros' -- they should be held accountable to say - at the very least- why the US  main Domestic model, is apparently so far off at 36  hrs out and ensemble at that.   Would like to hear a little more nuts/bolts -- but not from DMX at least this time around (most of the time).   Compared to other CWA's AFD's over the years- DMX in the winter is usually seriously lacking (especially in the shoulder seasons).  Rant over. Agree with Toasted...

[ToastedRavs]

11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Most of us on this forum are biased. I get it. It's a winter weather forum for the most part and few (if any us are professional forecasters ) but- for the  NWS DMX to continue the warm bias in headlines simply amazes me along with the lack of detail in the AFD.  Fine if NWX DMX wants to go with what they are ( they are pro's after all) but a simple discount (and the  why's and why nots) would be appreciated. For being pros' -- they should be held accountable to say - at the very least- why the US  main Domestic model, is apparently so far off at 36  hrs out and ensemble at that.   Would like to hear a little more nuts/bolts -- but not from DMX at least this time around (most of the time).   Compared to other CWA's AFD's over the years- DMX in the winter is usually seriously lacking (especially in the shoulder seasons).  Rant over. Agree with Toasted...

They're probably all too busy geeking out (not what I want to say but that's the PG version) for the Central Iowa NWA conference coming up. I took a quick look at La crosse and Quad Cities, that's all I want is some details in the discussion.  And Des Moines took til 421AM to write that crap? Come on! 

  I call in my severe reports when I am chasing, but damnit they are becoming so annoying I really don't want to help them out. But, I will, because it's not about them I suppose. 

[GDR]

[GDR]

Just now, GDR said:

Latest gfs

[Tom]

To my fellow Chicagoans and N IL posters, I left my "snow magnet" back home...hope you guys get a good amount of snow this weekend.  I told my best fried who's been living temporarily out in W IL in a small town just outside of Uttica, IL, to prepare for a cold and snowy period for MAR standards.  Looks like that is on the horizon and for many of you in the MW/GL's region.

 

0z Euro...through St Patty's weekend...

 

0z Euro Control...

[Tom]

0z EPS...LOT may extend those WSW's farther south if these trends continue for the 12z runs...this is for both systems...

 

[Tom]

06z Euro...

[MIKEKC]

The GFS, often referred to as garbage on here has actually done some pretty good forecasting inside 4 days this winter. Looks like its going to score another victory with this snow event.

I agree with some, it seems that the WSW's are out of place. Tough to call this time of year, going to have to snow hard in these areas that see it during the day tomorrow. ITS MARCH!!

Good luck to the folks that get these last few snows, I sure wish KC could see one last snow. KC is king of rain storms this winter. #10 rain storm happened last night. #11 is on its way tomorrow. I blame Clinton!!! (LOL) I'm over 9 inches of rain since Dec. 1st. WOW!

 

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

The GFS, often referred to as garbage on here has actually done some pretty good forecasting inside 4 days this winter. Looks like its going to score another victory with this snow event.

I agree with some, it seems that the WSW's are out of place. Tough to call this time of year, going to have to snow hard in these areas that see it during the day tomorrow. ITS MARCH!!

Good luck to the folks that get these last few snows, I sure wish KC could see one last snow. KC is king of rain storms this winter. #10 rain storm happened last night. #11 is on its way tomorrow. I blame Clinton!!! (LOL) I'm over 9 inches of rain since Dec. 1st. WOW!

 

Look on the bright side, at least there is a ZERO chance of a drought this summer.  I don't see anyone on here from the MW/GL's complaining later this year.  Should be a great year for your landscape business.  Hopefully it won't be TOO much of a good thing.

[MIKEKC]

25 minutes ago, Tom said:

Look on the bright side, at least there is a ZERO chance of a drought this summer.  I don't see anyone on here from the MW/GL's complaining later this year.  Should be a great year for your landscape business.  Hopefully it won't be TOO much of a good thing.

I think I agree, should be a wet growing season. You're right, TOO much of a good thing can hurt business. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

32 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

I think I agree, should be a wet growing season. You're right, TOO much of a good thing can hurt business. 

Its been a crazy to see how continuous  changes in precipitation  have molded my business  here. 2008 to 2011 was incredibly  wet much of the year (77" near me in 2010). Then since 2012 many summers  either on the drought monitor  constantly  or periodically  especially  july to sept. Theres virtually  0% sprinkler systems  here. In 2017 the May 15th to Sept 15th drought  made me so upset  I researched  data around the heartland going  back to 1800s. What I discovered  was north mo, south iowa, west  Illinois  all have crazy wild swings in precipitation much more drastic  than areas south, north and east of Ottumwa.  In the 2017 timeframe i recorded 15 straight months with just 1 rain over 1 inch!!! So we decided  to restructure  the business  focusing on commercial  snow accounts and some other things  rather than primarily  residential  lawn care. That plan has worked out well. During Jan and Feb light snows are almost a lock here and we have almost continuously  broke gross revenue records monthly and yearly since 2018. And the first time since 2008 I honestly  feel the business  is almost "weatherproof".. terrible  swings in precipitation  will still affect our bottom  line but we take what comes. 

[bud2380]

NAM increased totals a little from 00z.

 

[bud2380]

3k NAM

 

[Hawkeye]

I'm still going with about 3" here.

12z RDPS.... yikes

12z HRRR

[Bryan1117]

15 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep.

Your call of 2" of snow total for the month of March (in Omaha) looks dead on right now... this "amazing" pattern continues to deliver for us, doesn't it. Regular March snowstorms in Eastern Nebraska seem to be a thing of the past...

[WinterSquall23]

16 hours ago, jaster220 said:

CPC/WPC has indeed trended S here. Pretty sure I've never seen one of their maps like this b4. Like somebody said "why don't you just circle The Mitt? k, yeah, just like that, that's good" lol

@jaster220bringing the food NMI vibes.  Sweet!

[Hawkeye]

15z RAP.... wtf?

[GDR]

One thing you should know by now is don’t get roped in by the models this winter.

[bud2380]

Euro 10:1 and Kuchera.  Totals increased over Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. 

 

 

[Iceresistance]

1.3 inches of rain so far, which is good considering the I-44 Rain Deflector Force Field exists.

[Hawkeye]

12z EPS

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

15z RAP.... wtf?

Iowa could use some snow.

[BMT]

18z HRRR is dry/warm like the RAP.  turning into a dud

[Hawkeye]

The surface temp is above to well above freezing throughout the event.  The HRRR's meager snow rates won't cut it.

[BMT]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The surface temp is above to well above freezing throughout the event.  The HRRR's meager snow rates won't cut it.

Could be another situation where we get to see it pound, but it doesn't pile up.  i guess ill take that over boring. 

[Hawkeye]

The RDPS is following along with the HRRR

[Hawkeye]

Hmm.  While a few models are drying up big time, DVN just issued a winter storm warning for 5-8 inches. 

[BMT]

27 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Hmm.  While a few models are drying up big time, DVN just issued a winter storm warning for 5-8 inches. 

they upped the point and click amounts too:

 

[Hawkeye]

DVN/DMX weather story

[tStacsh]

March snow.  meh.   Temps should run in the upper 20's here though, so should be a decent snow event.  

 

 

 

 

[FV-Mike]

LOT added the next row of counties to the south to the WWA . 2-5 forecasted

[OttumwaSnomow]

Can we for once get a reasonable  forecast for this county? These are some forecast tomorrow.  18 hrs out.

Dmx nws 100% rain

Dvn nws mixed precip (county east & warmer)

Twc 3 to 5" snow

 

 

[Hawkeye]

50 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z Euro a slight improvement for FSD, MN, and WI through Friday AM.

The Euro shows a clear trend toward lifting the best snow northeastward, mostly out of Iowa.

The DMX snow graphic has 4-8" from Ames to Fort Dodge.  The Euro has 1-2". 

[jaster220]

Both SMI offices with good AFD's this pm. Solid to high-end WWA most likely scenario. After last week's intensity, this won't seem as good as it actually looks to be via better temps, and overnight timing. 

[Stacsh]

5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

March snow.  meh.   Temps should run in the upper 20's here though, so should be a decent snow event.  

 

 

 

 

And just like that the heaviest snow shifted south. 1-3”.  Yawn.  

[GDR]

[Tom]

@gimmesnow@MKEstormlook like they will score nicely with the added Lehs bonus...

Quote

Although temperatures will initially be mild, temp profiles will
quickly cool down late today and support all snow with SLR ratios
increasing to 10-12 to 1 during the heaviest burst of snow. Our
snowfall forecast is 6-9 inches, locally more, for the lake
counties including Washington and Waukesha where lake enhancement
will reach. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for 6 PM today
until 10 AM Fri for this area. Elsewhere across srn WI, 4-7
inches is fcst and is a borderline warning situation, but roads
may not become snow covered until late afternoon or early evening
with only lgt snow remaining for the Fri AM commute.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

12z HRRR

[Hawkeye]

NAM, 3kNAM, FV3

I doubt the NWS would issue winter storm warnings in Iowa if they got a do-over.

[MIKEKC]

HEAVY SNOW in Des Moines, Iowa, just pulled up the live traffic cams, beautiful winter scene. 

You guessed it, rain here in KC. The winter of rain continues. 

[Niko]

This snowstorm coming for S MI is looking pretty decent. Accumulations will be enough to shovel once again. At this rate, I would not be surprised to get to near average snowfall, if we get another  one down the road, but should be a close call. Where was this active wintry stuff back in January or February. Anyways, this will be a fast mover, but will make for hazardous driving conditions. 

[Bryan1117]

Picked up about an inch of slushy snow this morning in Southwest Omaha. It was just enough to provide a nice wintry scene around here without causing any major issues on the roads… and it will be mostly melted and gone by the end of the day today.

[bud2380]

Snow has really picked up now in Cedar Rapids.  Visibility has dropped significantly.  Nothing sticking yet, but it's starting to get wet.  

[Iowawx]

Just now seeing a few flakes in Northeast Cedar Rapids. Latest HRRR is actually showing 5-7" for CR/IC 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS

Just about all models have shifted the best snow out of the northern Iowa warning area and into southeast Iowa.

[bud2380]

Snow is sticking to the grass now.  Coming down at least moderately now.  

[Iceresistance]

1.7 inches of rain so far, this is from the ENTIRE system.

 

The funny part is that it's the bullseye in Pott. County, OK