3/5 to 3/14 - Classic Multi-storm event for the first half of March

[Grizzcoat]

18Z GEFS-- 10:1

[Andie]

Our cloud cover is growing heavier. 
Rain will begin overnight and 2 days of it ahead.  That’s great. Soak it good! 
73 damp degrees.  

[Iceresistance]

18 minutes ago, Andie said:

Our cloud cover is growing heavier. 
Rain will begin overnight and 2 days of it ahead.  That’s great. Soak it good! 
73 damp degrees.  

Same here, except it's in the 50s.

 

And heavy showers knocking on my door.

[Grizzcoat]

RAP now in range--

 

[Grizzcoat]

18Z Euro  has warning snows where there is no watch and vice versa- looks like the King is caving to the GFS once again---

 

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

18Z Euro  has warning snows where there is no watch and vice versa- looks like the King is caving to the GFS once again---

 

Of course I don't want to see any nasty dry holes around here, but with the storm still two days away I'm sure the qpf details will flop around.

Is that a 10:1 map?

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

alrighty then..

CPC/WPC has indeed trended S here. Pretty sure I've never seen one of their maps like this b4. Like somebody said "why don't you just circle The Mitt? k, yeah, just like that, that's good" lol

[OmahaSnowFan]

Yep.

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep.

OUCH! for OMA. Sure is robust for Iowa tho

[Hawkeye]

00z HRRR...  Not very reliable at this distance from the event.

[jaster220]

GRR fairly bullish on the two events in the pipeline:

 

AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
657 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023

- Possible Impacts with the Storm Thu Night to Friday

A mid level wave digs into the Great Lakes region during this time
generating stronger lift.  This lift shown to be in the DGZ and
peaks Thursday night into Friday morning.The upper jet has a
coupled look to it. This system will tap into some moisture from
the Gulf with PWAT values rising to above normal values. Models
are in relative agreement on this scenario. The models also show
some 700 mb FGEN...but vary considerably with the strength of it.
The GFS has the strongest look. Forecast soundings support snow as
the precipitation type. Mean ensemble snow forecasts are
supporting accumulating snow and an increased risk for impacts
especially for the Friday morning commute for much of the CWA.
Road temperatures will also the be coldest at this time of the
day. However there is still a lot of spread and the system has
been trending slightly quicker. Our forecasts will continue to
support a widespread snowfall event with an increased risk for
impacts. Most scenarios keep the region under warning
criteria...but trends going forward will need to be monitored
closely.

- Another storm system for Sunday night into Monday

A mid level low is shown to track in from the west northwest
Sunday night into Monday. Models are spread out on the timing and
strength of this feature...but they all have a signal there. This
will be another cold system...so mainly snow would be
expected. The moisture looks deep with this system...through 600
mb where temps are shown to be unusually cold at -30 deg C.
Moisture from Lake MI may also enhance this system with 850 mb
temperature dipping down colder than -10 deg C. The low level flow
is convergent on the backside of this system which would also
enhance the low level lift. Impacts appear possible from this
system

[Hawkeye]

00z NAM/3kNAM.... The 3k, in particular, has come way down with snow totals in Iowa compared to the last two runs.  Multiple models have teased a relative dry pocket over Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.

[East Dubzz]

Winter storm watch less than 48 hours away and the forecast is 3-9” lmao.. I mean I get it, it’s just funny to see.

[hawkstwelve]

Current thinking from NWS FSD. Besides SW MN and NW IA there are no advisories or watches but at this point I'll take the 4-6 for Sioux Falls.

While I'm almost to that point of being ready for warmth and thunderstorms, I could go with one last hurrah of a storm. Doesn't need to be huge - 6 inches will put us in the #8 spot for total season snowfall, with some time to spare. At that point I'll be ready to flip the switch to spring and summer.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z GFS-- 3"+ for DSM is overnight tonight which is unlikely.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Nice.. model spread from 0" to 9.8"in Ottumwa  Iowa.  So tired of this all winter.  Tough to run a business  here.

[Grizzcoat]

GEFS-

[Grizzcoat]

Euro Kuchera

[ToastedRavs]

Absolutely shithousery from Des Moines on the discussion.  Don't even want to post it, but they should be ashamed of their lack of interest/details/analysis.  More than half the posters here could post something way better than that discussion.  I hope they read this, and respond. What a joke. For a so called detailed discussion,  it lacked both details and discussion.  Another government job where they get no reprimand for absolute bare minimum done.

  Rant over. Hope Des Moines gets pounded all weekend long, not for my love of snow, but for them to feel ashamed for their lack of details.  They did update the grids this AM. For RAIN. And Rain only.  The grass is white and has been snowing for hours. Okay, now rant over!

[Grizzcoat]

10 minutes ago, ToastedRavs said:

Absolutely shithousery from Des Moines on the discussion.  Don't even want to post it, but they should be ashamed of their lack of interest/details/analysis.  More than half the posters here could post something way better than that discussion.  I hope they read this, and respond. What a joke. For a so called detailed discussion,  it lacked both details and discussion.  Another government job where they get no reprimand for absolute bare minimum done.

  Rant over. Hope Des Moines gets pounded all weekend long, not for my love of snow, but for them to feel ashamed for their lack of details.  They did update the grids this AM. For RAIN. And Rain only.  The grass is white and has been snowing for hours. Okay, now rant over!

Most of us on this forum are biased. I get it. It's a winter weather forum for the most part and few (if any us are professional forecasters ) but- for the  NWS DMX to continue the warm bias in headlines simply amazes me along with the lack of detail in the AFD.  Fine if NWX DMX wants to go with what they are ( they are pro's after all) but a simple discount (and the  why's and why nots) would be appreciated. For being pros' -- they should be held accountable to say - at the very least- why the US  main Domestic model, is apparently so far off at 36  hrs out and ensemble at that.   Would like to hear a little more nuts/bolts -- but not from DMX at least this time around (most of the time).   Compared to other CWA's AFD's over the years- DMX in the winter is usually seriously lacking (especially in the shoulder seasons).  Rant over. Agree with Toasted...

[ToastedRavs]

11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Most of us on this forum are biased. I get it. It's a winter weather forum for the most part and few (if any us are professional forecasters ) but- for the  NWS DMX to continue the warm bias in headlines simply amazes me along with the lack of detail in the AFD.  Fine if NWX DMX wants to go with what they are ( they are pro's after all) but a simple discount (and the  why's and why nots) would be appreciated. For being pros' -- they should be held accountable to say - at the very least- why the US  main Domestic model, is apparently so far off at 36  hrs out and ensemble at that.   Would like to hear a little more nuts/bolts -- but not from DMX at least this time around (most of the time).   Compared to other CWA's AFD's over the years- DMX in the winter is usually seriously lacking (especially in the shoulder seasons).  Rant over. Agree with Toasted...

They're probably all too busy geeking out (not what I want to say but that's the PG version) for the Central Iowa NWA conference coming up. I took a quick look at La crosse and Quad Cities, that's all I want is some details in the discussion.  And Des Moines took til 421AM to write that crap? Come on! 

  I call in my severe reports when I am chasing, but damnit they are becoming so annoying I really don't want to help them out. But, I will, because it's not about them I suppose. 

[GDR]

[GDR]

Just now, GDR said:

Latest gfs

[Tom]

To my fellow Chicagoans and N IL posters, I left my "snow magnet" back home...hope you guys get a good amount of snow this weekend.  I told my best fried who's been living temporarily out in W IL in a small town just outside of Uttica, IL, to prepare for a cold and snowy period for MAR standards.  Looks like that is on the horizon and for many of you in the MW/GL's region.

 

0z Euro...through St Patty's weekend...

 

0z Euro Control...

[Tom]

0z EPS...LOT may extend those WSW's farther south if these trends continue for the 12z runs...this is for both systems...

 

[Tom]

06z Euro...

[MIKEKC]

The GFS, often referred to as garbage on here has actually done some pretty good forecasting inside 4 days this winter. Looks like its going to score another victory with this snow event.

I agree with some, it seems that the WSW's are out of place. Tough to call this time of year, going to have to snow hard in these areas that see it during the day tomorrow. ITS MARCH!!

Good luck to the folks that get these last few snows, I sure wish KC could see one last snow. KC is king of rain storms this winter. #10 rain storm happened last night. #11 is on its way tomorrow. I blame Clinton!!! (LOL) I'm over 9 inches of rain since Dec. 1st. WOW!

 

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

The GFS, often referred to as garbage on here has actually done some pretty good forecasting inside 4 days this winter. Looks like its going to score another victory with this snow event.

I agree with some, it seems that the WSW's are out of place. Tough to call this time of year, going to have to snow hard in these areas that see it during the day tomorrow. ITS MARCH!!

Good luck to the folks that get these last few snows, I sure wish KC could see one last snow. KC is king of rain storms this winter. #10 rain storm happened last night. #11 is on its way tomorrow. I blame Clinton!!! (LOL) I'm over 9 inches of rain since Dec. 1st. WOW!

 

Look on the bright side, at least there is a ZERO chance of a drought this summer.  I don't see anyone on here from the MW/GL's complaining later this year.  Should be a great year for your landscape business.  Hopefully it won't be TOO much of a good thing.

[MIKEKC]

25 minutes ago, Tom said:

Look on the bright side, at least there is a ZERO chance of a drought this summer.  I don't see anyone on here from the MW/GL's complaining later this year.  Should be a great year for your landscape business.  Hopefully it won't be TOO much of a good thing.

I think I agree, should be a wet growing season. You're right, TOO much of a good thing can hurt business. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

32 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

I think I agree, should be a wet growing season. You're right, TOO much of a good thing can hurt business. 

Its been a crazy to see how continuous  changes in precipitation  have molded my business  here. 2008 to 2011 was incredibly  wet much of the year (77" near me in 2010). Then since 2012 many summers  either on the drought monitor  constantly  or periodically  especially  july to sept. Theres virtually  0% sprinkler systems  here. In 2017 the May 15th to Sept 15th drought  made me so upset  I researched  data around the heartland going  back to 1800s. What I discovered  was north mo, south iowa, west  Illinois  all have crazy wild swings in precipitation much more drastic  than areas south, north and east of Ottumwa.  In the 2017 timeframe i recorded 15 straight months with just 1 rain over 1 inch!!! So we decided  to restructure  the business  focusing on commercial  snow accounts and some other things  rather than primarily  residential  lawn care. That plan has worked out well. During Jan and Feb light snows are almost a lock here and we have almost continuously  broke gross revenue records monthly and yearly since 2018. And the first time since 2008 I honestly  feel the business  is almost "weatherproof".. terrible  swings in precipitation  will still affect our bottom  line but we take what comes. 

[bud2380]

NAM increased totals a little from 00z.

 

[bud2380]

3k NAM

 

[Hawkeye]

I'm still going with about 3" here.

12z RDPS.... yikes

12z HRRR

[hawkstwelve]

Winter Weather Advisory posted this morning for tomorrow. Calling for 3-5 which seems to be the ballpark the models have settled on for FSD. Hoping for a nice surprise but kind of doubt it. 

[Bryan1117]

15 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep.

Your call of 2" of snow total for the month of March (in Omaha) looks dead on right now... this "amazing" pattern continues to deliver for us, doesn't it. Regular March snowstorms in Eastern Nebraska seem to be a thing of the past...

[WinterSquall23]

16 hours ago, jaster220 said:

CPC/WPC has indeed trended S here. Pretty sure I've never seen one of their maps like this b4. Like somebody said "why don't you just circle The Mitt? k, yeah, just like that, that's good" lol

@jaster220bringing the food NMI vibes.  Sweet!

[Hawkeye]

15z RAP.... wtf?

[GDR]

One thing you should know by now is don’t get roped in by the models this winter.

[bud2380]

Euro 10:1 and Kuchera.  Totals increased over Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. 

 

 

[Iceresistance]

1.3 inches of rain so far, which is good considering the I-44 Rain Deflector Force Field exists.

[Hawkeye]

12z EPS

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

15z RAP.... wtf?

Iowa could use some snow.

[BMT]

18z HRRR is dry/warm like the RAP.  turning into a dud

[Hawkeye]

The surface temp is above to well above freezing throughout the event.  The HRRR's meager snow rates won't cut it.

[BMT]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The surface temp is above to well above freezing throughout the event.  The HRRR's meager snow rates won't cut it.

Could be another situation where we get to see it pound, but it doesn't pile up.  i guess ill take that over boring. 

[Hawkeye]

The RDPS is following along with the HRRR

[Hawkeye]

Hmm.  While a few models are drying up big time, DVN just issued a winter storm warning for 5-8 inches. 

[BMT]

27 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Hmm.  While a few models are drying up big time, DVN just issued a winter storm warning for 5-8 inches. 

they upped the point and click amounts too:

 

[Hawkeye]

DVN/DMX weather story

[tStacsh]

March snow.  meh.   Temps should run in the upper 20's here though, so should be a decent snow event.