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3/5 to 3/14 - Classic Multi-storm event for the first half of March


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The surface temp is above to well above freezing throughout the event.  The HRRR's meager snow rates won't cut it.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The surface temp is above to well above freezing throughout the event.  The HRRR's meager snow rates won't cut it.

image.thumb.png.99582559f7ae9cb3f1a91bde8439ed2a.png

Could be another situation where we get to see it pound, but it doesn't pile up.  i guess ill take that over boring. 

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Hmm.  While a few models are drying up big time, DVN just issued a winter storm warning for 5-8 inches. 🤦‍♂️

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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50 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z Euro a slight improvement for FSD, MN, and WI through Friday AM.

trend-ecmwf_full-2023030818-f045.snku_acc-imp.us_mw.gif

The Euro shows a clear trend toward lifting the best snow northeastward, mostly out of Iowa.

The DMX snow graphic has 4-8" from Ames to Fort Dodge.  The Euro has 1-2". 

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Both SMI offices with good AFD's this pm. Solid to high-end WWA most likely scenario. After last week's intensity, this won't seem as good as it actually looks to be via better temps, and overnight timing. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@gimmesnow@MKEstormlook like they will score nicely with the added Lehs bonus...

Quote
Although temperatures will initially be mild, temp profiles will
quickly cool down late today and support all snow with SLR ratios
increasing to 10-12 to 1 during the heaviest burst of snow. Our
snowfall forecast is 6-9 inches, locally more, for the lake
counties including Washington and Waukesha where lake enhancement
will reach. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for 6 PM today
until 10 AM Fri for this area. Elsewhere across srn WI, 4-7
inches is fcst and is a borderline warning situation, but roads
may not become snow covered until late afternoon or early evening
with only lgt snow remaining for the Fri AM commute.

 

 

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NAM, 3kNAM, FV3

I doubt the NWS would issue winter storm warnings in Iowa if they got a do-over.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This snowstorm coming for S MI is looking pretty decent. Accumulations will be enough to shovel once again. At this rate, I would not be surprised to get to near average snowfall, if we get another  one down the road, but should be a close call. Where was this active wintry stuff back in January or February. Anyways, this will be a fast mover, but will make for hazardous driving conditions. 

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z GFS

Just about all models have shifted the best snow out of the northern Iowa warning area and into southeast Iowa.

image.thumb.png.1411701939cc398b9b79f7d3fca54a85.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

@gimmesnow@MKEstormlook like they will score nicely with the added Lehs bonus...

 

 

This has a lot of potential. If they are counting for 4-7 on warm ground where most of it will melt, the ski hills will see a lot of snow because it'll be falling on existing snow and the trees will trap it. Looks like Ski Patrol shift tomorrow will be quite fun, dead in the morning and fresh snow for me. Nice for winter to go out with a bang here instead of a soft wimper.

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I posted this in the wrong thread so I moved it here though this was awhile ago and now I'm up to around 1" of snow. Not sure how much more will accumulate since it's 33° and rates have slowed down a bit.

 

Earlier.......Have heavy snow here currently and it starting to accumulate on the grass even though soil temperatures are in the upper 30⁰s. It started off as a trace of rain/sleet mix, then after a bit it came in like waves of light to heavy snow showers which I could see coming across the fields. It's consistent now though. 

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I'm at 1.8 inches (fell in about 90 minutes).  The rate has dropped quite a bit after the initial heavy burst.  The latest HRRR shows solid snow filling in early this afternoon for a couple hours, but then becomes pretty light after that.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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