3/5 to 3/14 - Classic Multi-storm event for the first half of March

[bud2380]

Canadian is similar, not quite as far south or heavy on amounts, so it's probably a lot more accurate than what the GFS is showing.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Zzzzzzzzz…..

[Hawkeye]

12z UK... ratios likely lower than this

[bud2380]

Daytime snow on the Ukie.

 

[hawkstwelve]

With the trends on the GEM, it appears the Euro/EPS are leading the way yet again while the GFS will continue to play catchup. This one might be turning into a routine late winter storm instead of a slap-your-grandma big one.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is a hair south again, but the low is much weaker than the GFS.  The GFS is likely too amped.

[james1976]

Local met up here mentioning heavy snow potential thu-fri

[Iceresistance]

Down here, I may get some flooding rainfall later this week starting tomorrow.

[Madtown]

7.5" here since last night

[hawkstwelve]

GFS trending towards the weaker solution to the surprise of... nobody.

It'll get to the Euro/GEM solution eventually, just taking a little longer. Not the sharpest tool in the shed.

[CentralNebWeather]

36 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

GFS trending towards the weaker solution to the surprise of... nobody.

It'll get to the Euro/GEM solution eventually, just taking a little longer. Not the sharpest tool in the shed.

This has went from a massive winter storm to virtually nothing around here in a couple of days of models. Really hard to have confidence in this model. I’m still waiting for the 50” it had for me.

[jcwxguy]

verbatim the amounts vary significantly for fremont/omaha 

[Madtown]

Still holding at 29" on the level

[Andie]

DFWs high will drop 21* between Tuesday and Friday.  Rain in the forecast for next 2 days.  
Not at Equinox yet! 
 

High of 62* Friday 

[Money]

NAM 

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS... south and weaker, more in line with other models.

I'm thinking 2-3" of concrete is most likely here.

 

[Hawkeye]

Yikes, the Euro is really weakening this thing.

This is 10:1, so we can probably cut these totals in half.

[Money]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yikes, the Euro is really weakening this thing.

This is 10:1, so we can probably cut these totals in half.

Milwaukee is saying 12:14:1 ratios 

[MIKEKC]

A March glacier in IOWA??? Total for two storm between Thursday and Sunday. 

Hey KC, take your rain, mid 30's and shove it!!! 

Tom, the ole Canadian is teasing you, or is it??

[Hawkeye]

12z RDPS.... continuing the overall weakening and southward trend.

This morning's NAM is ridiculously over-wet.

[hawkstwelve]

12z NAM nails Iowa.

[bud2380]

33 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z NAM nails Iowa.

I'm trying not to laugh at the NAM.  

[bud2380]

RDPS coming in further south with the cold air now as well.

 

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

I'm trying not to laugh at the NAM.  

GET NAM'ED! Lol

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS looking a bit better for NE and IA folks. This has definitely trended better for the further SSE folks than it looked like it would a few days ago. I remember it wasn't too long ago that CentralNeb was saying he went from something to nothing. Now he's back to something.

Although the GFS has really been playing catchup almost the entire time with this storm so probably not the best model to forecast off of at this point. Or really at any point.

[bud2380]

GFS

[hawkstwelve]

On the other hand, the GEM trend gif is showing how the 'usual suspects' this winter (FSD/MSP) have been trending worse for this storm. 12z GEM is pretty paltry with precip amounts up here. Now SE IA is the biggest winner in the region outside of NW SD/ND.

[hawkstwelve]

Total snow by the end of the weekend on the 12z GFS.

[Hawkeye]

GFS snow depth change

[hawkstwelve]

Aaaaand 12z GEM through the end of the weekend. Still decent when you put the storms together.

[bud2380]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

GFS snow depth change

I was hoping for a snow day Friday (my turn to work from home with the kids), but the vast majority of this would fall between 3pm Thursday and 3am Friday.  Might not be good enough timing to cancel school Friday.  But of course nowadays they cancel school for 1-2", so maybe it will still be good enough. 

[bud2380]

The ICON is not impressed with this system.  Not even gonna post it, LOL.  Too depressing. 

[bud2380]

GEFS (10:1 so take that into consideration)

 

[bud2380]

Ukie

If the Euro plays a little more ball, we could see some winter storm watches in eastern Iowa.  Especially since this looks more like a Thursday event now.  Only light lingering snow into Friday for Iowa.  

 

[Hawkeye]

At least all models have brought the snow southward to Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  The trade-off is a weaker system, but that's the way it works.  I'm still going with 2-3" of concrete, probably not much more.

[bud2380]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

At least all models have brought the snow southward to Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  The trade-off is a weaker system, but that's the way it works.  I'm still going with 2-3" of concrete, probably not much more.

I wouldn't argue with that, but if the heaviest bands move through just after sunset, it could accumulate a little better.  

[Hoosier]

Still have a signal for steep lapse rates in the DGZ, and the system will be closed off in the low/mid levels.  Definitely some favorable factors to work with.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro... continues to be the weakest, driest model.  Chicago is in a decent spot, but much of Iowa is weak garbage.

 

[bud2380]

It's laughable how different the GFS and Euro are with their QPF.  Track and placement are pretty similar.  Thermal profiles too.  It's just the Euro is much weaker.  

 

 

[GDR]

Weak is where it’s at!

[Hawkeye]

15 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

It's laughable how different the GFS and Euro are with their QPF.  Track and placement are pretty similar.  Thermal profiles too.  It's just the Euro is much weaker.  

I would certainly bet on the actual precip totals being much closer to the Euro than the GFS.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[bud2380]

Winter Storm Watch issued for Cedar Rapids on north. 3-9" way to narrow it down. 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-ILZ001-002-007-080445-
/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0004.230309T1800Z-230310T1500Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Jo Daviess-
Stephenson-Carroll-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque,
Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Galena, Freeport,
and Mount Carroll
233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 9
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Illinois and east central and
  northeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

[FarmerRick]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

12z Euro... continues to be the weakest, driest model.  Chicago is in a decent spot, but much of Iowa is weak garbage.

 

Classic Omadome 

[bud2380]

DVN write up

 

Headlines: Winter storm watch issued for counties in Iowa and
Illinois north of Highway 30. This will begin at noon Thursday and
end at 9 am Friday. Later shifts may need to adjust these timings.

Thursday into Friday: Global models/CAM`s generally in agreement
with a significant snowstorm impacting our northern counties. A
deepening trough with a closed low tracking across the area will
provide strong large-scale forcing. Forecast soundings indicate the
entire column saturated including the Dendritic Growth Zone so
moderate to heavy snow appears likely in our north. Snow
accumulations look to be in the 6 to 10 inch range north of Hwy 30.
Farther south to I-80, the forecast gets tricky with the
potential for mixed pcpn with several inches of snow and sleet
possible, mixed with rain. In our southern counties mostly rain is
expected. What is unnerving is the GFS/NAMNEST suggesting the
entire cwa going to all snow with amounts of 6+ inches, due to
dynamic cooling. These models may be overdoing the cooling process
but for later shifts to monitor. If this does pan out then
headlines may be needed in more of the cwa.

[bud2380]

18z NAM

 

[jaster220]

alrighty then..

[Tony]

14 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

18z NAM

 

NAM putting out some crazy numbers there.

[bud2380]

GFS

 

[tStacsh]

14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

alrighty then..

ugh, why couldn't this be in January or February?  My 4 year old twins are just playing in our yard right now.  So nice out.  Can't wait now they are old enough to just let them go play in the yard all spring/summer!