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3/5 to 3/14 - Classic Multi-storm event for the first half of March


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The snow depth change is likely more accurate.  Unfortunately, that causes the southern edge totals to drop way down.  The latest GFS is south, but it still has the 500 mb low tracking right over me.  I need it to track through southern Iowa.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro is a hair south again, but the low is much weaker than the GFS.  The GFS is likely too amped.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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36 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

GFS trending towards the weaker solution to the surprise of... nobody.

It'll get to the Euro/GEM solution eventually, just taking a little longer. Not the sharpest tool in the shed.

trend-gfs-2023030618-f102.snku_acc-imp.us_nc.gif

This has went from a massive winter storm to virtually nothing around here in a couple of days of models. Really hard to have confidence in this model. I’m still waiting for the 50” it had for me. 😂

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DFWs high will drop 21* between Tuesday and Friday.  Rain in the forecast for next 2 days.  
Not at Equinox yet! 
 

High of 62* Friday 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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00z GFS... south and weaker, more in line with other models.

I'm thinking 2-3" of concrete is most likely here.

image.thumb.png.21bf37e73de72338de3059922d423ff7.png

image.thumb.png.bdfdbd171d98e6b24aa1d1f0b43d7fc9.png

 

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yikes, the Euro is really weakening this thing.

This is 10:1, so we can probably cut these totals in half.

image.thumb.png.887ea0a5e9ae915df4f5ed919c617fb1.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z RDPS.... continuing the overall weakening and southward trend.

This morning's NAM is ridiculously over-wet.

image.thumb.png.c51cd0d2a6daf0f465f88ea9698a989d.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

GFS snow depth change

image.thumb.png.1fa8d42e71484c7373f9c2dc54414cc5.png

I was hoping for a snow day Friday (my turn to work from home with the kids), but the vast majority of this would fall between 3pm Thursday and 3am Friday.  Might not be good enough timing to cancel school Friday.  But of course nowadays they cancel school for 1-2", so maybe it will still be good enough. 

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At least all models have brought the snow southward to Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  The trade-off is a weaker system, but that's the way it works.  I'm still going with 2-3" of concrete, probably not much more.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

At least all models have brought the snow southward to Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  The trade-off is a weaker system, but that's the way it works.  I'm still going with 2-3" of concrete, probably not much more.

I wouldn't argue with that, but if the heaviest bands move through just after sunset, it could accumulate a little better.  

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12z Euro... continues to be the weakest, driest model.  Chicago is in a decent spot, but much of Iowa is weak garbage.

image.thumb.png.8cb08c3992093ea51ad375d78e243f5c.png

 

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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15 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

It's laughable how different the GFS and Euro are with their QPF.  Track and placement are pretty similar.  Thermal profiles too.  It's just the Euro is much weaker.  

I would certainly bet on the actual precip totals being much closer to the Euro than the GFS.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Winter Storm Watch issued for Cedar Rapids on north. 3-9" way to narrow it down. 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-ILZ001-002-007-080445-
/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0004.230309T1800Z-230310T1500Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Jo Daviess-
Stephenson-Carroll-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque,
Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Galena, Freeport,
and Mount Carroll
233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 9
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Illinois and east central and
  northeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
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DVN write up

 

Headlines: Winter storm watch issued for counties in Iowa and
Illinois north of Highway 30. This will begin at noon Thursday and
end at 9 am Friday. Later shifts may need to adjust these timings.

Thursday into Friday: Global models/CAM`s generally in agreement
with a significant snowstorm impacting our northern counties. A
deepening trough with a closed low tracking across the area will
provide strong large-scale forcing. Forecast soundings indicate the
entire column saturated including the Dendritic Growth Zone so
moderate to heavy snow appears likely in our north. Snow
accumulations look to be in the 6 to 10 inch range north of Hwy 30.
Farther south to I-80, the forecast gets tricky with the
potential for mixed pcpn with several inches of snow and sleet
possible, mixed with rain. In our southern counties mostly rain is
expected. What is unnerving is the GFS/NAMNEST suggesting the
entire cwa going to all snow with amounts of 6+ inches, due to
dynamic cooling. These models may be overdoing the cooling process
but for later shifts to monitor. If this does pan out then
headlines may be needed in more of the cwa.
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