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3/5 to 3/14 - Classic Multi-storm event for the first half of March


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36 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

GFS trending towards the weaker solution to the surprise of... nobody.

It'll get to the Euro/GEM solution eventually, just taking a little longer. Not the sharpest tool in the shed.

trend-gfs-2023030618-f102.snku_acc-imp.us_nc.gif

This has went from a massive winter storm to virtually nothing around here in a couple of days of models. Really hard to have confidence in this model. I’m still waiting for the 50” it had for me. 😂

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DFWs high will drop 21* between Tuesday and Friday.  Rain in the forecast for next 2 days.  
Not at Equinox yet! 
 

High of 62* Friday 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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00z GFS... south and weaker, more in line with other models.

I'm thinking 2-3" of concrete is most likely here.

image.thumb.png.21bf37e73de72338de3059922d423ff7.png

image.thumb.png.bdfdbd171d98e6b24aa1d1f0b43d7fc9.png

 

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yikes, the Euro is really weakening this thing.

This is 10:1, so we can probably cut these totals in half.

image.thumb.png.887ea0a5e9ae915df4f5ed919c617fb1.png

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z RDPS.... continuing the overall weakening and southward trend.

This morning's NAM is ridiculously over-wet.

image.thumb.png.c51cd0d2a6daf0f465f88ea9698a989d.png

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS snow depth change

image.thumb.png.1fa8d42e71484c7373f9c2dc54414cc5.png

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

GFS snow depth change

image.thumb.png.1fa8d42e71484c7373f9c2dc54414cc5.png

I was hoping for a snow day Friday (my turn to work from home with the kids), but the vast majority of this would fall between 3pm Thursday and 3am Friday.  Might not be good enough timing to cancel school Friday.  But of course nowadays they cancel school for 1-2", so maybe it will still be good enough. 

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Ukie

If the Euro plays a little more ball, we could see some winter storm watches in eastern Iowa.  Especially since this looks more like a Thursday event now.  Only light lingering snow into Friday for Iowa.  

 

sn10_acc-imp.us_mw.png

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At least all models have brought the snow southward to Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  The trade-off is a weaker system, but that's the way it works.  I'm still going with 2-3" of concrete, probably not much more.

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

At least all models have brought the snow southward to Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  The trade-off is a weaker system, but that's the way it works.  I'm still going with 2-3" of concrete, probably not much more.

I wouldn't argue with that, but if the heaviest bands move through just after sunset, it could accumulate a little better.  

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12z Euro... continues to be the weakest, driest model.  Chicago is in a decent spot, but much of Iowa is weak garbage.

image.thumb.png.8cb08c3992093ea51ad375d78e243f5c.png

 

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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15 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

It's laughable how different the GFS and Euro are with their QPF.  Track and placement are pretty similar.  Thermal profiles too.  It's just the Euro is much weaker.  

I would certainly bet on the actual precip totals being much closer to the Euro than the GFS.

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Winter Storm Watch issued for Cedar Rapids on north. 3-9" way to narrow it down. 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-ILZ001-002-007-080445-
/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0004.230309T1800Z-230310T1500Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Jo Daviess-
Stephenson-Carroll-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque,
Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Galena, Freeport,
and Mount Carroll
233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 9
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Illinois and east central and
  northeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
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DVN write up

 

Headlines: Winter storm watch issued for counties in Iowa and
Illinois north of Highway 30. This will begin at noon Thursday and
end at 9 am Friday. Later shifts may need to adjust these timings.

Thursday into Friday: Global models/CAM`s generally in agreement
with a significant snowstorm impacting our northern counties. A
deepening trough with a closed low tracking across the area will
provide strong large-scale forcing. Forecast soundings indicate the
entire column saturated including the Dendritic Growth Zone so
moderate to heavy snow appears likely in our north. Snow
accumulations look to be in the 6 to 10 inch range north of Hwy 30.
Farther south to I-80, the forecast gets tricky with the
potential for mixed pcpn with several inches of snow and sleet
possible, mixed with rain. In our southern counties mostly rain is
expected. What is unnerving is the GFS/NAMNEST suggesting the
entire cwa going to all snow with amounts of 6+ inches, due to
dynamic cooling. These models may be overdoing the cooling process
but for later shifts to monitor. If this does pan out then
headlines may be needed in more of the cwa.
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alrighty then..

image.png.26643ef4abadb208c6a19bd19cc0655e.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

alrighty then..

image.png.26643ef4abadb208c6a19bd19cc0655e.png

ugh, why couldn't this be in January or February?  My 4 year old twins are just playing in our yard right now.  So nice out.  Can't wait now they are old enough to just let them go play in the yard all spring/summer!

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Our cloud cover is growing heavier. 
Rain will begin overnight and 2 days of it ahead.  That’s great. Soak it good! 
73 damp degrees.  

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  • Rain 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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18 minutes ago, Andie said:

Our cloud cover is growing heavier. 
Rain will begin overnight and 2 days of it ahead.  That’s great. Soak it good! 
73 damp degrees.  

Same here, except it's in the 50s.

 

And heavy showers knocking on my door.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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18Z Euro  has warning snows where there is no watch and vice versa- looks like the King is caving to the GFS once again---

image.thumb.png.98956249aca46e3d6a019ea0465c34b0.png

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

18Z Euro  has warning snows where there is no watch and vice versa- looks like the King is caving to the GFS once again---

image.thumb.png.98956249aca46e3d6a019ea0465c34b0.png

 

Of course I don't want to see any nasty dry holes around here, but with the storm still two days away I'm sure the qpf details will flop around.

Is that a 10:1 map?

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

alrighty then..

image.png.26643ef4abadb208c6a19bd19cc0655e.png

CPC/WPC has indeed trended S here. Pretty sure I've never seen one of their maps like this b4. Like somebody said "why don't you just circle The Mitt? k, yeah, just like that, that's good" lol

1674436674_23-03-07CPCHazardsd3-7.thumb.png.d58e71ea4cbb882697cf9f5d80482bb6.png47631708_23-03-06CPCHazardsd3-7.thumb.png.b590d53970716e30c11af6fb33f866e1.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep.

1F7EBB8B-DF93-44A0-83BD-4642345A27D9.jpeg

OUCH! for OMA. Sure is robust for Iowa tho

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00z HRRR...  Not very reliable at this distance from the event.

image.thumb.png.567673d0fea504c8304ff31db64fb23f.png

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GRR fairly bullish on the two events in the pipeline:

 

AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
657 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023

- Possible Impacts with the Storm Thu Night to Friday

A mid level wave digs into the Great Lakes region during this time
generating stronger lift.  This lift shown to be in the DGZ and
peaks Thursday night into Friday morning.The upper jet has a
coupled look to it. This system will tap into some moisture from
the Gulf with PWAT values rising to above normal values. Models
are in relative agreement on this scenario. The models also show
some 700 mb FGEN...but vary considerably with the strength of it.
The GFS has the strongest look. Forecast soundings support snow as
the precipitation type. Mean ensemble snow forecasts are
supporting accumulating snow and an increased risk for impacts
especially for the Friday morning commute for much of the CWA.
Road temperatures will also the be coldest at this time of the
day. However there is still a lot of spread and the system has
been trending slightly quicker. Our forecasts will continue to
support a widespread snowfall event with an increased risk for
impacts. Most scenarios keep the region under warning
criteria...but trends going forward will need to be monitored
closely.

- Another storm system for Sunday night into Monday

A mid level low is shown to track in from the west northwest
Sunday night into Monday. Models are spread out on the timing and
strength of this feature...but they all have a signal there. This
will be another cold system...so mainly snow would be
expected. The moisture looks deep with this system...through 600
mb where temps are shown to be unusually cold at -30 deg C.
Moisture from Lake MI may also enhance this system with 850 mb
temperature dipping down colder than -10 deg C. The low level flow
is convergent on the backside of this system which would also
enhance the low level lift. Impacts appear possible from this
system
  • Snow 1
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00z NAM/3kNAM.... The 3k, in particular, has come way down with snow totals in Iowa compared to the last two runs.  Multiple models have teased a relative dry pocket over Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.

image.thumb.png.8737874ae011bc9349959da05024b012.png

image.thumb.png.235342058158657df315637097ef2106.png

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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