3/5 to 3/14 - Classic Multi-storm event for the first half of March

[Iceresistance]

A multi-storm event is possible across the plains for a whole week!

For the first part, heavy rain and snow are possible.

Those who may get the heavy rain: @Black Hole, @OKwx2k4, @Iceresistance (me), and @Andie.

Those who may get snow are @CentralNebWeather, @Tom, @OmahaSnowFan, @gabel23, @Clinton (rain and snow possible for you), @Hawkeye, @Niko, @hawkstwelve, and those who I can't mention.

 

Several days out, but this is looking crazy!

[Andie]

Again?   Here we go.  
Only day forecast for rain at this time is Wednesday and that’s 50%. 

[jcwxguy]

[Iceresistance]

44 minutes ago, Andie said:

Again?   Here we go.  
Only day forecast for rain at this time is Wednesday and that’s 50%. 

Well, the WPC shows otherwise, need the rain to keep away the drought!

 

Also looks like it could either trend north or south, it does have a bad tendency to trend west now that the La Nina is dying.

[Andie]

Shouldn’t complain even a little.   We should take it while we can.  
There was property damage in this recent one.  Top wind speed recorded was a 114 mph gust.  Pretty tough storm.  

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, Andie said:

Shouldn’t complain even a little.   We should take it while we can.  
There was property damage in this recent one.  Top wind speed recorded was a 114 mph gust.  Pretty tough storm.  

80 in DFW, I think the 114 was West Memphis from February.

[jcwxguy]

[hawkstwelve]

I mean, not gonna lie... This is starting to look pretty dang nice.

Always good to have the EPS on your side and it's trending quite well for the Northern Plains at the moment.

[hawkstwelve]

GFS does seem to be trending a bit further south over the past couple runs.

[Andie]

Area blackout tonight. I think all that lightning weakened a relay or something and it finally croaked.  2 hrs later we were back in business.  Not bad for a big city. 
59 currently.  77 tomorrow. Sunny. Should be gorgeous! 

[hawkstwelve]

Nice improvement for Iowa folks on the 00z GEFS.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Tom]

It appears the models are suggesting a general I-80 on north significant snow event but the caveat may be a trend towards a weaker system.  Although, it's still a wide swath of heavy snow.  00z EPS  snow mean...

 

0z CMCE...

 

 

[Tom]

0z UKIE...

[Tom]

0z GEFS...not a bad looking "share the wealth"...

[hawkstwelve]

Slight bettering of trends for Iowa and E NE folks on the NBM over the past couple runs.

[Money]

GFS looks fun 

[CentralNebWeather]

This storm has went from 50”, clown numbers, to basically nothing in 2 days of models. I really hope we can get moisture out of it in some form. There are parts of the Central Plains really struggling with rainfall deficits. 

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

This storm has went from 50”, clown numbers, to basically nothing in 2 days of models. I really hope we can get moisture out of it in some form. There are parts of the Central Plains really struggling with rainfall deficits. 

The GFS is refusing to give up, it has 8 inches of snow for your area when the storm-after-storm pattern is done.

[Hawkeye]

12z UK

[CentralNebWeather]

30 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The GFS is refusing to give up, it has 8 inches of snow for your area when the storm-after-storm pattern is done.

We’ll see what occurs. NWS Hastings has pretty much given up on it, saying it will keep heading north. Model trends today seem to back them up. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro sure is different. More of an open wave than a strong closed low.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro just has some nuisance wet snow and around here that won't accumulate much.

[Iceresistance]

Even the EPS (Euro Ensembles) does not agree with the OP Euro

[hawkstwelve]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Even the EPS (Euro Ensembles) does not agree with the OP Euro

But it has been trending weaker and closer to the new OP solution.

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

But it has been trending weaker and closer to the new OP solution.

Fooey! I forget the trends!

(Facepalm reaction is on myself, not you)

[CentralNebWeather]

All my weather apps decreasing snow and rain chances. This escalated quickly and not in a good way. 

[Iceresistance]

25 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

All my weather apps decreasing snow and rain chances. This escalated quickly and not in a good way. 

That has escalated drier, hopefully, the models can trend this stronger again. It could be just windshield wiper fashion in terms of strength.

[Money]

Icon looks a lot like the euro 

[Money]

18z gfs brings in a secondary system a day or two after 

[Money]

GFS coming in really good for Iowa, minny and WI

[Money]

0z GFS 

[Money]

0z GEM pretty similar to GFS 

[Money]

GFS brings in another system two days later again with a drawn out light snow system that adds up. Looks like some LE snow in eastern WI as low passes by to the south 

[Money]

GEM also shows that second system with a sub 998 low in central IL

 

 

[Hawkeye]

Some 6-7" totals are being reported in the sw MSP area where heavy bands have been parked late this evening.

[Money]

6z GFS/ICON

[Tom]

Well, some of the models are pretty juiced up over the span of the next 7-10 day in the snow dept.  I posted a graphic in the March Discussion of the "haves and have not's".  Does the pattern continue or will nature TRY to share some snow wealth??

0z Euro...seems like the only model that's not as amped/juiced but still mirrors a similar storm track for the weekend Pre St. Patty Day event.

 

[Tom]

0z UKIE...

[Tom]

0z Euro Control....just like some of you who have these "imaginary" cut-off's, we have them here to...as they say, "the cheddar curtain" may be that battle zone around here.

 

0z GEFS...

0z CMCE...

[Tom]

0z EPS...

 

[hawkstwelve]

Man, this thing has quickly turned into a 'no big deal' on the Euro and EPS. 4 inches on the OP and a mean of 5 on the EPS. What a huge change from just two days ago. Wow.

[hawkstwelve]

You can see the weakening on the Canadian as well. Luckily it looks like we have three separate systems (Tues/Wed, Thurs/Fri, Sat/Sun) so hopefully if the main one is a dud the other two can overperform to make up for it. The weekend one in particular is starting to look a bit more interesting.

[Madtown]

haven't been out yet, but looks like 5 ir 6" last night

[bud2380]

The GFS is running really slow this morning. 

[bud2380]

GFS for Thursday into Thursday night.  Colder in Iowa, further south. 

[Money]

Gfs with 12-18 across most of southern WI for the first system

[bud2380]

This now covers most of the storm.

 

[Hawkeye]

The snow depth change is likely more accurate.  Unfortunately, that causes the southern edge totals to drop way down.  The latest GFS is south, but it still has the 500 mb low tracking right over me.  I need it to track through southern Iowa.