Jan. 22nd-23rd Winter Storm

[jcwxguy]

Fv3 qpf

[Money]

Gem

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012100&fh=72&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[jaster220]

Gem

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012100&fh=72&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

 

At least GGEM doesn't skunk me like the GFS duo and the Euro

[Niko]

GEM provides for SEMI 2-3". Sweet.

[Stormhunter87]

This storm makes landfall in a couple of hours correct?

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie appears more N than it's 12Z run but almost impossible to tell until precip/850 maps out

[jcwxguy]

Ukie appears more N than it's 12Z run but almost impossible to tell until precip/850 maps out

qpf

[jcwxguy]

Fv3 qpf

[Grizzcoat]

 During the bulk of the precip -UK  keeps all of IA below 0C at 850 except the SE. Keeps most of IA below 0C at 2M except S Central and SE I still expect a wintry mix more than what it's saying.

 

On to the King. It's probably going to cave to the GFS and N tracks.

[Madtown]

Gfs fv3 was a good 75mi too far north with the last storm. gfs was a touch better but still too north. The euro inside 2 days and the nam at 3 days was most in the ballpark here...also second time this year the hrrr did great at game time.

[jcwxguy]

00z euro is slightly weaker surface but stronger at 500mb and south at hr 48 vs 12z

[NH4NU]

EURO is north from earlier today, but still keeps the Low tracking straight east over KC. 

[Madtown]

south or north that is da question

[jcwxguy]

Good run for Lincoln/omaha

[jcwxguy]

south or north that is da question

south, I see 3hr increments

[jcwxguy]

10:1 euro

[jcwxguy]

Kuchera

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow, this run was good! The banding is the same from 12z, but a bit less snow, but lets be realistic, no ones getting 14 inches from this system lol

[Hawkeye]

For this storm, models have been as locked in and stable as they ever get.

[Stormhunter87]

Go euro go lol. I suspect that it won't play out that well but still is nice. The locals and oax favour a good period of freezing drizzle then a change over.

[snowstorm83]

Surprised the euro held serve for the most part. There's gotta be some kind of cave by 12z, but it probably won't favor us.

[Grizzcoat]

Zoomed out for other peeps

 

[Grizzcoat]

06Z NAM is basicallty a dusting to perhaps 2" for many reading this. WIndy City does quite good/.   Soo different than the EURO ; especially in max snowfall areas of the Euro. I believe the NAM pulled somewhat of coup last time around but dont remember it being this big. Don't mean to be dramatic but the Euro is calling for 1' and widespread 6"+ that the 06Z Nam shows a dusting to 2"??   36-42 hours out?? Never seen such difference over such a large area before that I can remember.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Will never forget how bad the NAM did for eastern Nebraska last Thursday a day before the storm. 6z that day had 14 inches here then by days end at 0z it had 1". 

[Grizzcoat]

[St Paul Storm]

Watches and advisories all around the metro, but not here. This thing is really crapping out. My initial call of 0.5” is sadly still looking like a real possibility. MPX lowering totals, down to 2-4” here.

[Tom]

Both 00z GEFS/EPS seem they trended a touch north and target N IA into S/C Wisco...

[Tom]

06z Euro...

[Tom]

Here was the 21z SREF's....

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/21/sref_namer_072_snow_total_sprd.gif

 

 

Latest 3z run....

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/03/sref_namer_072_snow_total_sprd.gif

[dubuque473]

WSW, DVN has me at 5” still.

[gosaints]

Full sample at 12z.

[CentralNebWeather]

06z Euro...

That is sure backing off amounts.

[gosaints]

So far NAM somewhat stronger at the surface....

 

NAM stepped towards other models for sure.  Advisory event

[gosaints]

6z

 

12z

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z NAM is better for Central Nebraska than the last 2 NAM runs.  Step in the right direction.

[Grizzcoat]

Yep recent NAM considerably further SE--- maybe a sign of caving to the King?

[CentralNebWeather]

Local Mets. concerned about freezing drizzle again starting after 5 PM this evening then snow and 40 MPH winds and gusts tomorrow.  Locally they only say 1-3" but I think there will be bands of heavier as usually happens.  Already schedule issues as this week is our conference basketball tournament with teams spread many miles apart.  

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z NAM 3km has my area at 5".  Could be possible if we get under a heavy band.  My prediction is 3" with a lot of wind by the the time it ends tomorrow evening.  

[St Paul Storm]

Glad to see the 12z NAM claw back from the 06z run. Looks like a relatively high ratio event up this way.

[Grizzcoat]

3KM NAM world of difference for many compared to recent runs