Jan. 22nd-23rd Winter Storm

[Iowawx]

Closer view

Do you have that map with 10:1 ratios? This seems like it might be low ratio event. 

[jcwxguy]

Great trends for Eastern Nebraska today, I have to say you have to think the King might just be on to something... we are due for a decent snow storm here.

not really a trend, it's just 1 model run. GFS/nam are not good for Eastern Nebraska

[GDR]

I’m calling for 12-18 for omaha

[jcwxguy]

Do you have that map with 10:1 ratios? This seems like it might be low ratio event.

 

[GDR]

not really a trend, it's just 1 model run. GFS/nam are not good for Eastern Nebraska

yeah but I’d rather have the king on my side!

[GDR]

I’m going outside to pull that south about 25 miles or so

[Minny_Weather]

I'm doubting Euro. I feel like the storm cuts way too hard.

[indianajohn]

First Fri/Sat storm a bust then the anticipated LES a bust now looking at rain for Tuesday.... Ultimate trifecta LOL!!

[Stormhunter87]

Wow that Euro run is crazy. But the nam really doesn't agree with this. Hmmm hard to say what plays out. Nam has my vote because of how spot on it has been, but I would love the euro to win this time.

[hlcater]

I'm doubting Euro. I feel like the storm cuts way too hard.

I agree. This is a weak surface low, even though there isn’t really any high pressure in Canada, I can’t forsee it cutting like that.

 

EDIT: especially because the wave is shearing out, wayyy positively tilted and really not terribly defined. This isn’t a massive ejecting neg tilted longwave trough. This inevitably ends up flatter at the very least. Probably with an adjustment colder/south as well.

[Grizzcoat]

Be Leary of that 10:1 Euro map. I did the raw #s here near and NW of DSM and in the beginning looks like 6:1 or so than 10:1 at end. I would conservatively do 75% of that map, at least here. Cant do others now as I have to drive.

[Grizzcoat]

I wonder if watches will be hoisted later today

Even if DMX agrees with higher amounts compared to previous thoughts I think they wait another 12 hours.

[NH4NU]

Obviously not trying to read into this too much, but for us here particularly in E. Nebraska, it was the EURO that identified the more eastern/drier solution with the last system. The GFS, FV3, and NAM packages all followed suit respectively, but not until 24 hours from onset.

 

Food for thought! 

[james1976]

Prolly 4-6" in the heaviest band.

[gosaints]

Nice baro zone

[snowstorm83]

Idk what the euro is on, but I want some. What a dumb outrageous solution (well unless it's right). Hard to trust any model if you can't trust the euro.

[Stormhunter87]

Nam further north a touch stronger at hr.42

[gosaints]

Idk what the euro is on, but I want some. What a dumb outrageous solution (well unless it's right). Hard to trust any model if you can't trust the euro.

what is outrageous?

[hlcater]

Nam further north a touch stronger at hr.42

Still south and much colder than the GFS and CMC. Only a touch further south than the Euro.

[hlcater]

NAM is also dry. Very Dry. Only has 1 narrow band of decent amounts out in Nebraska and a 1-3" event everywhere else. I'd still take that in a heartbeat over rain.

[hlcater]

what is outrageous?

I think the Euro cuts too hard for one. Whether or not this is what he meant is impossible to say. RCNYILWX largely agrees with my thoughts on this system. I actually think the NAM and the Ukie have the right idea with a shearing out, cold turd. 

[Stormhunter87]

Still south and much colder than the GFS and CMC. Only a touch further south than the Euro.

Yeah definitely a change up from the 12z though. And to your other post the dry air really choking the snow amounts. Better track but that dry really sucks.

[NH4NU]

So 18z NAM hovers along SW Kansas border than shoots north/northeast towards Nebraska... Hits the brakes...Then scoots along & east staying just north of KC (similar placement to EURO). Interesting....

[St Paul Storm]

18z NAM for those that are interested.

[East Dubzz]

I’ll take that over rain for sure.

[gimmesnow]

18z NAM for those that are interested.

 

That's some bad news for southern Wisconsin. That should be some rain. I feel like how these last few winters have been for everyone around me, that how this next storm turns out is a test if things have really changed here. Rain, it'll be just like the last few years, one or two good storms then rain and BS. If it ends up as snow, I'm really going to believe things have changed.

 

I just got back from the snowmobile trails. I think their standards of when they are going to open up the trails or keep them closed has dropped significantly. Some fields were great, and some had no snow at all. Years ago they would have kept everyone off to try and build a base. If this event brings decent rain down here, the trails are done.

[CentralNebWeather]

18z NAM for those that are interested.

I love that run

[GDR]

I’ll take the nam and add another inch or two to the snow pack

[gosaints]

We shall see. Decent sampling tonight.

[East Dubzz]

That's some bad news for southern Wisconsin. That should be some rain. I feel like how these last few winters have been for everyone around me, that how this next storm turns out is a test if things have really changed here. Rain, it'll be just like the last few years, one or two good storms then rain and BS. If it ends up as snow, I'm really going to believe things have changed.

 

I just got back from the snowmobile trails. I think their standards of when they are going to open up the trails or keep them closed has dropped significantly. Some fields were great, and some had no snow at all. Years ago they would have kept everyone off to try and build a base. If this event brings decent rain down here, the trails are done.

I don’t believe it has much rain, if any, in southern Wisconsin.

[Minny_Weather]

As much as I hate it, I think the track that favors US-20 straight across is the one that will come to fruition. I just don't see this one digging far enough down to bring any appreciable accumulations for here. Way too weak for that. NAM is wanting to make this an ice event here and atm I 100% believe that.

[St Paul Storm]

That's some bad news for southern Wisconsin. That should be some rain. I feel like how these last few winters have been for everyone around me, that how this next storm turns out is a test if things have really changed here. Rain, it'll be just like the last few years, one or two good storms then rain and BS. If it ends up as snow, I'm really going to believe things have changed.

 

I just got back from the snowmobile trails. I think their standards of when they are going to open up the trails or keep them closed has dropped significantly. Some fields were great, and some had no snow at all. Years ago they would have kept everyone off to try and build a base. If this event brings decent rain down here, the trails are done.

Looks like the rain/mixed stays south of the border in IL.

[gosaints]

Looks like the rain/mixed stays south of the border in IL.

drizzle signal

[gimmesnow]

I don’t believe it has much rain, if any, in southern Wisconsin.

 

I was looking at how GFS has the cut off for rain/snow on the state boarder with some of the rain creeping north. NAM has that breakpoint way further south. Looks like the  GFS is out there compared to everything else. Didn't see the NAM, tropicaltidbits doesn't have it but I found it on pivotal. NAM looks good for me but I don't understand how the 24 hour QPF map disagrees so much with snow amounts yet the other map that snows precip rates and types seems to line up with the QPF.

[St Paul Storm]

3km NAM. Way different than the globals. Sharp cutoff on the southern edge. Not sure I buy it, but we’re within NAM range (if you can call it that).

[Grizzcoat]

Guess is many AFDs go with WPC day 2

[badgerwx]

ARX holding off on issuing anything yet. Still think a broad area of 4-6" in NE IA, SW WI, and SE MN.

[bud2380]

No shift south on the GFS.  Low cuts right through Eastern Iowa.  

[Hawkeye]

GFS has moved a bit further north four straight runs.

[Iowawx]

GFS has moved a bit further north four straight runs.

Seems like it’s the Euro/NAM/UK vs GFS/CMC