Jan. 22nd-23rd Winter Storm

[St Paul Storm]

3KM NAM world of difference for many compared to recent runs

Yeah no joke.

[Madtown]

looks like I get rain after sitting at 10 below this am. crazy!

[Tom]

LOT's snowfall map...1-2"+ north of I-88 before the slop/mix scenario...better than all rain I guess...

 

[Grizzcoat]

I once heard a wise saying years ago ; that when guidance sucks for consensus  - go with the King.  

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Icon stays steady for Central Nebraska.  I know many don't trust it, I'm not sure about it myself, but it hasn't fluctuated much and looks very similar to the 12Z NAM models.  

[St Paul Storm]

It’s absolutely laughable that the initial band of snow associated with this system is knocking on the door, and the models still have no clue. Skies are darkening. Time to figure it out.

[CentralNebWeather]

It’s absolutely laughable that the initial band of snow associated with this system is knocking on the door, and the models still have no clue. Skies are darkening. Time to figure it out.

I think we may be in for some surprises with this system especially on how much freezing drizzle may precede any snow.

[Stormhunter87]

I think we may be in for some surprises with this system especially on how much freezing drizzle may precede any snow.

Yeah I am getting that feeling too. OAX is only going freezing drizzle and one inch of snow. If that actually plays out braf. But I get the feeling they are playing cautious because of last week's storm.

[erburns18]

Blah Im glad I was jackpocketed with that storm in early December . 

[Iowawx]

GFS looks south so far.

[CentralNebWeather]

Yeah I am getting that feeling too. OAX is only going freezing drizzle and one inch of snow. If that actually plays out braf. But I get the feeling they are playing cautious because of last week's storm.

You hit it right on the head.  I think Hastings is also playing down anything since we got no snow last Friday.  They seem to be hitting the freezing drizzle hard but not snow.  Even if we get a few inches of snow, with these strong winds there are going to be problems.

[Iowawx]

Small shift south. Looks like snow band in Iowa shifted south by like 10 miles or so. Cutting it close here. Hopefully this slight southward trend continues.

[St Paul Storm]

Pretty steady as she goes on the 12z GFS.

[gosaints]

Good test for the new gfs

[St Paul Storm]

I think we may be in for some surprises with this system especially on how much freezing drizzle may precede any snow.

Snow is just to my west and definitely won’t see any liquid precip here with the first band.

[bud2380]

The GFS has been extremely consistent run to run on the south edge of the snow band. Barely a deviation.

[East Dubzz]

Not sure I’m buying what the DVN is saying for this storm, but I’ll take it for now.

[WBadgersW]

Currently getting some beautiful light lake effect snow. Hopefully this storm doesn't ruin it.

[hlcater]

12z Ukmet is wayyy south.

[gosaints]

New GFS has not budged.

[NH4NU]

EURO back south just like yesterdays 12z run at 24hrs

[St Paul Storm]

New GFS has not budged.

Yeah both GFS and FV3 have been remarkably consistent run to run.

[NH4NU]

EURO is officially identical to yesterdays 12z run and has storm tracking N/NE passing over KC.

[jcwxguy]

12z euro

[Iowawx]

12z euro

Do you have map for Iowa?

[jcwxguy]

Do you have map for Iowa?

done

[St Paul Storm]

Euro definitely on the southern end of the models early on.

[BMT]

i like that Euro run.  

[East Dubzz]

Come on King Euro... be right.

[Tom]

A tick S around here and even showing it starting as snow from I-90 on north, then to rain, then back to snow...

[hlcater]

I like that run.

[james1976]

I'm right in the middle. Love it. Thinking this is prolly 10:1 system though. Profiles are messy.

[dubuque473]

Good run...

[Tony]

A tick S around here and even showing it starting as snow from I-90 on north, then to rain, then back to snow...

Don't really need a huge shift south for some of us to be in the good stuff. Expecting little and hoping for much.

[jcwxguy]

Kuchera fwiw

[East Dubzz]

I'm right in the middle. Love it. Thinking this is prolly 10:1 system though. Profiles are messy.

I was think earlier how you appear to be in a really good position on this one.

[Hawkeye]

That's as far south as the euro has been recently.  I'm still not expecting much snow.  1-2" would be a bonus.  I can't feel too down about missing the bulls-eye considering it's not exactly the storm of the century.

[East Dubzz]

Good run...

Indeed. This cutoff is so close.

 

Kind of crazy that we potentially could get the same amount of snow as the last system. I’m not totally convinced that’ll happen, but it’s certainly possible. But given all the hype the last storm got, this one has gone under the radar a little.

[Stormhunter87]

Go euro go! Lol

[dubuque473]

Yes I was pleased with the final result. Man is it cold today..wind picking up.