Jan. 22nd-23rd Winter Storm

[gimmesnow]

Seems like it’s the Euro/NAM/UK vs GFS/CMC

 

NAM seems a lot more sane with the temps. I'm not as knowledgeable as most of you, but I feel like going from 13 as a high to upper 30s back to low 20s then single digit highs seems a little crazy. NAM seems to think it'll only reach the upper 20s on the 23rd, I don't know how that warm air can move so far up here.

[Stormhunter87]

NAM seems a lot more sane with the temps. I'm not as knowledgeable as most of you, but I feel like going from 13 as a high to upper 30s back to low 20s then single digit highs seems a little crazy. NAM seems to think it'll only reach the upper 20s on the 23rd, I don't know how that warm air can move so far up here.

The low would have to be strong enough to pull that warm air in. Some models favour that, is it possible yes but unlikely.

[NH4NU]

Storm comes onshore tonight. 

 

HWO -- OAX

 

A storm system will move through the region Monday and Tuesday.
This should produce areas of freezing drizzle and some snow
accumulation. Ice accumulations Monday night into Tuesday morning
could reach 0.15". Snow amounts from late Monday night
through Tuesday are presently forecast around 2 to 5 inches,
mainly north of Interstate 80. If traveling Monday night and
Tuesday, keep up with the latest road conditions and forecasts.

Gusty northwest winds on the backside of the system Tuesday will
result in falling temperatures and areas of blowing snow. Some
wind gusts may reach 35 to 40 mph.

[dubuque473]

DVN saying 5” for me.

[NH4NU]

18z GFS FV3 does not cut the Low through SE Nebraska like before and instead passes near Falls City before heading E/NE This broadens the axis of heavy snow overall but still keeps Omaha on the edge. 

[VMB443]

MKX Situation Report has me at 4-6 inches - would love to see that amount of snow on top of what we’ve got already.

[jcwxguy]

Fv3

[Niko]

Local weatherman said this evening that SEMI will get accumulating snows b4 changing to rain and end abruptly. Suburbs of Detroit will see higher accumulations and stay as snow longer.  So, we will see how this turns out. I think my area goes from snow to rain at the very end. Perhaps, some freezing drizzle.

[Stacsh]

Interesting. Lots of snowpack and cold air to overcome south of mid Michigan. Could be icy.

[james1976]

DMX has 6+ from my area north and east with a large 3-6 around that.

[jcwxguy]

18z euro

[Grizzcoat]

^ Thank you for posting this. Does anyone know if 18Z EURO/ CMC use upper air (updated upper air , ie, not 12Z stuff?)  Curious and not just for this event.

[Hawkeye]

The 18z euro inched north.  The CR airport went from 4 to 1.  C'mon, man, just shift south 20-40 miles.

[Niko]

The 18z euro inched north.  The CR airport went from 4 to 1.  C'mon, man, just shift south 20-40 miles.

Some adjustments are still possible tomorrow and even into early Tuesday, so plenty of time to figure this one out. 

[Madtown]

local nets calling for 5-8 in madison 3-7 in the tier along the boarder

[St Paul Storm]

Here’s the latest graphic from MPX. Widespread 4-6”. Talking ground blizzard conditions in open areas after the storm west and south of the metro. No headlines due to the long duration, light snow.

[jaster220]

As per usual this season, MI peeps ride the edge, awaiting our fate to see if the S camp or N camp wins out.  At least with yesterday's storm, we knew the SLP would be south of us. This riding the line stuff is ruining the fun of tracking. You don't dare get invested if it's just going to end up north and a very dis-heartening rainer/ruiner. IF, like Nov's storm and yesterday's to some extent, the tide turns favorably, it has done so in the final 36 hrs and even then you're left to cross body parts in hopes the models aren't hitting you for one final tease-play. Seems I remember an era when models were less "jumpy" and things trended better from d3 to d1. Now it seems we don't know until it's knocking on our door. 

 

18z FV3 disgusts me. It's an exact replica of Dec 1st in track and rain swath. Hopefully I don't hit 57F the next day like I did on 12/2

[gosaints]

I was just gonna post I think the post storm winds could be an issue

[Iowawx]

00Z NAM looks like it's a tad south so far.

[clintbeed1993]

ANOTHER 1 to 3 incher for my area.  Probably the 10th time since October.  Yippee..

[St Paul Storm]

0z NAM looks like a weak loser so far.

[Iowawx]

0Z NAM increased snow amounts slightly for Iowa. 2-4 inches for most of Iowa. 

[Grizzcoat]

3km NAM looks quite weak

[bud2380]

RGEM significantly stronger than the NAM and further north.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

3km NAM = What storm? More of a snizzle event! lol

[Minny_Weather]

NAM is way overdoing ratios to our North. 15:1-20:1 in places where it's snow throughout the duration vs. 10:1 down here. 10:1 is more realistic throughout the state with the WAA imo.

[jaster220]

so when does the NAM blink from it's cold solution transitioning the rain to snow south of the low here in SMI?

 

[Money]

NAM is way overdoing ratios to our North. 15:1-20:1 in places where it's snow throughout the duration vs. 10:1 down here. 10:1 is more realistic throughout the state with the WAA imo.

Why is that?

[jaster220]

RGEM significantly stronger than the NAM and further north.

 

Nice to look @ but seems way too amped for a weak shearing storm pos-tilted even

 

[Grizzcoat]

GFS with a very slight shift S in C.IA (all the difference for some)-

[james1976]

Tight south gradient with GFS. It can stay put now.

[WBadgersW]

MKX is forecasting 6-8" here. This thing better not move anymore North. The rain/snow line is not too far away.

[Money]

Gfs

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012100&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

[Minny_Weather]

Why is that?

I said it in the post. Temps aloft. Has a razor thin cutoff simply due to ratios and I just don't see that happening.

[Minny_Weather]

I will gladly punt that GFS run. I do NOT want >32 rain to start out the storm.

[Money]

I said it in the post. Temps aloft. Has a razor thin cutoff simply due to ratios and I just don't see that happening.

Temps aloft are much colder in the snow band

[hlcater]

As much as I was expecting a south trend, it doesn't look like that's gonna happen. Oh well. I'll take my 34 and rain on top of deep snow.

[jaster220]

MKX is forecasting 6-8" here. This thing better not move anymore North. The rain/snow line is not too far away.

 

Seems after one decent storm, they're back to throwing caution to the wind. This seems far from a sure bet, even for their CWA

[jcwxguy]

GFS with a very slight shift S in C.IA (all the difference for some)- USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_051.gif

zoomed in

[jaster220]

As much as I was expecting a south trend, it doesn't look like that's gonna happen. Oh well. I'll take my 34 and rain on top of deep snow.

 

Yet to be sampled iiuc, so hold that thought