VMB443 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 0z hrrr and still snowing http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012200&fh=36&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=Yes please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 You aint kidding!!Right north of the NAM but jumped south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Well the RDPS was one of the derivatives that OMA was banking on-- and others offices I sure ; It's now flipped. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Extreme cutoff in Johnson County IA on the RGEM. Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Anyone have the RGEM? Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Really slowedd Well the RDPS was one of the derivatives that OMA was banking on-- and others offices I sure ; It's now flipped.Someone was putting out a forecast based on the RGEM??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 RGEM http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012200&fh=39&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=rdps Through 15z Wed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 wow...NAM Euro and now for the most part GFS are on board with a good snow here...the hi res stuff is all in agreement we get plastered. unreal from 24hrs ago! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 I figured this storm would have a late curveball. Just didn’t know if it’d be good or bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Still +SN in S.WI- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Extreme cutoff in Johnson County IA on the RGEM. Wow Yeah, but it's a significant shift south, so I'd still be feeling pretty good if I was in IC/NL. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Rgem 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Weeee I had a feeling of a surprise was not wrong. Let's see this play out now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Yeah, but it's a significant shift south, so I'd still be feeling pretty good if I was in IC/NL.I think you said CR would probably only get 1-2 inches from this earlier today. Are you ready to change that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Really slowedd Someone was putting out a forecast based on the RGEM???Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE450 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019 The going forecastcontinues to favor the GFS/Canadian (and their derivatives), withthe slower and further south ECMWF deterministic run continuingto be an outlier as of 12Z model runs. I doubt they bothered to look at or respect the 18Z GFS 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Well even if this things ends up skirting south of here it is a breath of fresh air to see a storm slow down a bit and deliver some goods Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Well even if this things ends up skirting south of here it is a breath of fresh air to see a storm slow down a bit and deliver some goodsI feel good about this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE450 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019 The going forecastcontinues to favor the GFS/Canadian (and their derivatives), withthe slower and further south ECMWF deterministic run continuingto be an outlier as of 12Z model runs.The canadian should be considered a perpetual outlier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 MKX disco no chNhes to headlines till the overnight shift takes a peek at things. People are not expecting a storm here and the start time is horrible. Kids will all be sent to school. Snow starts at 9:30am and it's a mess/dangerous getting everyone home in SN+.Boarderline irresponsible in my opinion. We shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE450 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019 The going forecastcontinues to favor the GFS/Canadian (and their derivatives), withthe slower and further south ECMWF deterministic run continuingto be an outlier as of 12Z model runs.They definitely want to play it safe if they were going with those runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 I feel good about this oneAs you should Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wartburger Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Looks to me like it's not a southern shift that is happening, it's more a broader swath of snow that is probably from the cooler temperatures. I doubt we see as much rain/freezing rain in the areas that are now seeing snow. My forecast has yet to change for my area further North in Iowa. Southern shift would have decreased my totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 SREF plumes on the rise.... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Those N and S cutoffs....dayum 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Too bad no other model looks like this for SMI Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Wpc starting to buy in. They have shifted their maps a little. Definitely not playing out how gridded so far. We are at 24 degrees and should be at 29. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Looks to me like it's not a southern shift that is happening, it's more a broader swath of snow that is probably from the cooler temperatures. I doubt we see as much rain/freezing rain in the areas that are now seeing snow. My forecast has yet to change for my area further North in Iowa. Southern shift would have decreased my totals.Agreed. My temp was 15 at suppertime and its now 13. Was supposed to slowly rise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 RPM spitting out 5" for McHenry and about 1.5" for ORD...Lake/McHenry and points NW of the city do very well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Terry already mentioned more snow, he’s coming up next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Sitting at 13 here as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 MKX disco no chNhes to headlines till the overnight shift takes a peek at things. People are not expecting a storm here and the start time is horrible. Kids will all be sent to school. Snow starts at 9:30am and it's a mess/dangerous getting everyone home in SN+.Boarderline irresponsible in my opinion. We shall see.Irresponsible, IMO, is jumping on things without being able to take them in fully. It sucks for them, but it makes sense to wait. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Terry already mentioned more snow, he’s coming up next.I’m not able to watch but I’d be interested to hear what he has to say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 If you look at surface map temps in SE IA into IL -- the forecasted WAA is not happening. At least not yet. Snowpack playing a factor? Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 00z ICON also south, although it continues to be disheveled and weak with the cold sector precip. I think you said CR would probably only get 1-2 inches from this earlier today. Are you ready to change that? Well, sure, I can't ignore the trend. I'm not jumping on the 10" bandwagon, but several inches is now in play. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 What time does the snow let up in SE Wisconsin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Irresponsible, IMO, is jumping on things without being able to take them in fully. It sucks for them, but it makes sense to wait.I am not saying they need to go all in, but do something with your watches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 KFXA in Cedar Rapids now says 4-7 inches for Cedar Rapids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 If you look at surface map temps in SE IA into IL -- the forecasted WAA is not happening. At least not yet. Snowpack playing a factor?I am sure the snow pack is playing factor, but I also think it is taking the storm longer to get going and eject.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 IMO MKX should have mentioned the rising possibility of a significant snowfall. We went from 6-8" to 5-7" to 3-6" to 2-6". People are not expecting more than 3" here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 *cough* Euro called it *cough*You also have to give credit to the Ukie ad that model has been the farthest South of all modeling 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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