Jan. 22nd-23rd Winter Storm

[Madtown]

IMO MKX should have mentioned the rising possibility of a significant snowfall. We went from 6-8" to 5-7" to 3-6" to 2-6". People are not expecting more than 3" here.

That's what I'm saying. No one believes there is a chance of a storm atm.

[hlcater]

KFXA in Cedar Rapids now says 4-7 inches for Cedar Rapids.

 

That's kinda trigger happy IMO. I'd say 3-5 accounting for either dry air, or mixing at any point. It's possible CR sees that much, but that probability isn't high enough to put that in a forecast.

[hlcater]

I'm in Iowa City and thinking 1-3" for myself. That is still MUCH better than rain so I'd be content with that. However statistically, I'll still "measure" in Hiawatha and record that. 

[Grizzcoat]

Not saying it means much - but 850 temps on GFS allready ( 0C) much further S in IA

[Iowawx]

GFS is also south.

[BMT]

Man, if we get half of what some of these models are showing, We will have the best snowpack I’ve seen in CR in years.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS for sure S of 18Z GFS-- lining up with trends

[Hawkeye]

Seeing the same structural changes in the GFS.  The 500 mb energy, which had been expected to focus in Nebraska and head east, is instead being shifted back sw by about a state.  It's kinda being detached from the northern stream.

 

[Grizzcoat]

gosaints is right- ejecting slower--

[Madtown]

wow

 

snow seems delayed till 3pm or so here

[Iowawx]

Cedar Rapids/ Iowa city appear to be in the heaviest band on the 0Z GFS

[Madtown]

how big can this go?

[Grizzcoat]

[gosaints]

gosaints is right- ejecting slower--

 

Quite a slow down.  I mean we are still about 24 hours from the good stuff for alot of areas now

[gabel23]

I’ll take the gfs for the win please!

[bud2380]

GFS with nearly 10” for Cedar Rapids by midnight.

[gosaints]

A wet fart will blow around whatever fluff we score here

[gosaints]

The other note would be the storm deepens as it ejects on the GFS.  A large change from a not many runs ago.  The new gfs was the first to show that possibility

[james1976]

0z GFS looks heavier for N IA compared to 18z.

[hlcater]

I knew this would come south. Just didn't expect it to be so late in the game. I pretty much gave up on myself yesterday after the models trended even farther north for last night's 00z. I'm very surprised to say the least. Just had a feeling that models were too far north/warm when they were having WAA overpower a vast expanse of deep snow so quickly, that looks to be the case. Then again that might not be as the changes were at 500mb as well. 

[Andie]

Wow, wind's howling outside. 20-30mph. Out of the SSE.

Not typical for us, indicates rain.

54* and currently a 20% chance of rain rising to 40% in the early hrs.

 

This month is acting more like March in Texas, not January.

 

What gives Weather Swamis ??

[GDR]

Nice can’t wait to see what the king shows!

[Grizzcoat]

[Iowawx]

WOW. GFS with 10.4 inches in Cedar Rapids.

 

I fully expect DVN to issue winter storm warning for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.

[gosaints]

I knew this would come south. Just didn't expect it to be so late in the game. I pretty much gave up on myself yesterday after the models trended even farther north for last night's 00z. I'm very surprised to say the least. Just had a feeling that models were too far north/warm when they were having WAA overpower a vast expanse of deep snow so quickly, that looks to be the case. Then again that might not be as the changes were at 500mb as well. 

Its weather.  Complicated right?

[badgerwx]

Looking into the chat rooms now for DVN and MKX..lots of activity...trying out whether or not to delay the inveitable at this point.

[East Dubzz]

Some hefty totals on the models tonight around here. Man.

[erburns18]

NWS Omaha

@NWSOmaha

·

2m

 

In the interest of being fully transparent, this is a tough forecast coming up for tomorrow. We do have some computer models that are shifting the axis of heavier snow a little farther south toward Lincoln and Omaha, but some models are not. Still assessing the details.

[Hawkeye]

The other note would be the storm deepens as it ejects on the GFS.  A large change from a not many runs ago.  The new gfs was the first to show that possibility

 

Yeah, as the energy is detaching some from the northern stream, it's slowing and strengthening a bit more compared to earlier runs quickly whisking the energy up and away.

[hlcater]

Its weather.  Complicated right?

Yea no doubt.I'm trying to find out why exactly the models trended south. One would think surface snowcover wouldn't affect whats happening at 500mb, especially when the vort itself is embedded in such a large scale feature like that trough in the west. Unless the vort itself was just handled that poorly, but even that seems implausible. Interesting case if these trends verify.

[Madtown]

Looking into the chat rooms now for DVN and MKX..lots of activity...trying out whether or not to delay the inveitable at this point.

Interesting...keep us posted!

[Tony]

Could see alot of places getting upgraded with current modeling. Not liking the Nam with all the ice its showing in N IL

[East Dubzz]

Lol I feel bad for the offices who have had to cover western Iowa the last two storms.

[gosaints]

anyone have the NOAA FV3 link?

[james1976]

I'm not buying Kuchera but I could see offices bumping up totals an inch or two.

[gabel23]

OAX update.

 

581

FXUS63 KOAX 220331

AFDOAX

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

931 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 925 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

 

Freezing drizzle has set up across northeast NE and northwest IA,

north of a line from Columbus, NE to Onawa, IA. The Norfolk, NE

ASOS has already measured 0.12 of flat ice, which would correspond

to 0.05 of radial ice. Models seem to be locked in on this area

through the remainder of the evening, and not seeing much trend to

shift south until after midnight.

 

Another concerning trend would be the changeover to snow on

Tuesday. 18z GFS and 00z Nam models have shifted the axis of

heavier snow a little farther south for tomorrow afternoon, but

not seeing that trend in the most recent RAP and HRRR models and

the Hires ARW, but not the HiRes NMM models. So that is something

that we`ll be looking at closely when the 00z GFS and ECMWF

models come in to see if an adjustment is needed farther south in

higher snowfall totals.

[East Dubzz]

I'm not buying Kuchera but I could see offices bumping up totals an inch or two.

Yeah I’m not buying the 10+ totals, but it’ll be interesting to see if the DVN pushes up the forecast for my area. Latest was 4-6.

[Bryan1117]

I’ll take the gfs for the win please!

Yeah same here, 6+ from this system would be a huge surprise. I am still thinking 2 to 4 inches across the Omaha metro area is a safe bet, on top of a sheet of ice... both the morning and evening commutes around here are going to be miserable LOL. 

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS-FV3 also much slower, but not much farther south... surface low still lifts up into southeast Iowa.

 

[gosaints]

Hawkeye, do you have that link??

 

This will be a good storm to see how this model performs.