February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 33 last night. Hoping to get a freeze in tonight.

[Requiem]

Based on what has happened up here... I am going to go ahead and give myself a little credit for this call.

Props to you, actually.

[Requiem]

I legit will pull several al-night era to track the possibilities of next weekend into early next week.

[Gradient Keeper]

Sunset in six hours! Maybe Rob could do a countdown.

If I gotta, then I gotta

 

Sunset in 5 hours 51 minutes

[Perturbed Member]

Whatever cold air this band can advect it better start soon. Have a rain snow mix but temp is just too high, 37 and wet bulbing isn't gonna get it done. 

[Jbolin]

Hmmm, chilly

[Requiem]

Hmmm, chilly

Is this good?

[Gradient Keeper]

Sharp pressure rises past 7 hours at Olympia and now Kelso has sharp pressure rises too. The arctic front is getting kicked southward still. I'm impressed. Kelso now 32 F, 27 dp light snow

[Deweydog]

Whatever cold air this band can advect it better start soon. Have a rain snow mix but temp is just too high, 37 and wet bulbing isn't gonna get it done.

He’s on the freeway by the McMenamins in Kalama. Unfortunately he stopped to pick up some cans and talk to a road sign.

[TT-SEA]

For clarification... the ECMWF shows snow down there from 4 p.m. to 4 a.m. so I don't think people need to stress about daytime temps.

 

[Phil]

Just caught up with this thread. Congratulations guys! It’s been a long time coming and well deserved especially for the Puget Sound folks that got stiff armed in 2016/17.

 

Take videos so it lives with you for awhile. If your hands aren’t hurting from holding the smartphone in the subzero windchill, you ain’t doing it right. Haha.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 40 now with 4mph with from s

[Timmy]

Getting light to moderate snow now, it’s a good sign that it’s blowing from the north here too

[TT-SEA]

Also... the ECMWF did great with our deformation zone but it did underestimate total amounts a little. Something to consider for tonight.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

For clarification... the ECMWF shows snow down there from 4 p.m. to 4 a.m. so I don't think people need to stress about daytime temps.

 

Also... the ECMWF did great with our deformation zone but it did underestimate total amounts a little. Something to consider for tonight.

Yeah great points.

[Deweydog]

Dust storm in the Tri Cities!

[FroYoBro]

The light rain has made it here. No snowflakes as it is almost 40 right now. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sun is out now for a moment.  Still mostly cloudy.  Let's see we can get to the upper 40s.

[Cloud]

Is this good?

Believe you asked this before and it was answered by someone else. But just in case you missed it... any time you see an ensemble mean of -5 or better, it is always good. This showed a prolonged period of cold for KSEA.

[Phil]

My snow loving cousins in Everett are blasting snow pictures at me over Snapchat, haha.

 

PNW snow is definitely prettier than swamp snow.

[Perturbed Member]

Also... the ECMWF did great with our deformation zone but it did underestimate total amounts a little. Something to consider for tonight.

 

The ECMWF is getting a lot of praise because it did bump up totals up there last second, but honestly it failed pretty badly down here. It showed the highest totals for this event down here above any other model, 5-6 inches on the Saturday 00z run and then folded like a newspaper just 2 runs later. Yes I am biased because I got shafted by it but it would have been a lot more impressive if it didn't flip flop like that last second. 

[Timmy]

Nnw at scappoose now and temp dropped 3 degrees

[Perturbed Member]

Temp is rising now even with some precip. 37.8F as the hot front begins to apparently lift back north.  Back to all rain. 

 

Keep it here for your 24/7 coverage of Portland Snowpocalypse 2019!

[Guest Sounder]

Weather app say it snow but right now only rain why weather app lie

[Deweydog]

The ECMWF is getting a lot of praise because it did bump up totals up there last second, but honestly it failed pretty badly down here. It showed the highest totals for this event down here above any other model, 5-6 inches on the Saturday 00z run and then folded like a newspaper just 2 runs later. Yes I am biased because I got shafted by it but it would have been a lot more impressive if it didn't flip flop like that last second.

The Euro by far was the superior model for this event once again. If it shows a deformation zone for this evening, one is gonna happen. Just a matter of EXACTLY where it resides and how EXACTLY surface temps will behave.

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF is getting a lot of praise because it did bump up totals up there last second, but honestly it failed pretty badly down here. It showed the highest totals for this event down here above any other model, 5-6 inches on the Saturday 00z run and then folded like a newspaper just 2 runs later. Yes I am biased because I got shafted by it but it would have been a lot more impressive if it didn't flip flop like that last second. 

 

 

That is because the upper levels changed... the low was farther east.

 

It nailed down the surface details the day before the event so I would trust it for tonight.   Its going to snow in Portland.  

[Bryant]

What's with the bi*ching and moaning about surface details 120 hours out when the upper levels look good?

[Deweydog]

What's with the bi*ching and moaning about surface details 120 hours out when the upper levels look good?

There he is!!!

[Cloud]

Pretty impressive cold air intrusion.... San Francisco could see snowflakes down to SL. The Bay Area currently have a WWA for 2-4” above 1000’.

[Perturbed Member]

The Euro by far was the superior model for this event once again. If it shows a deformation zone for this evening, one is gonna happen. Just a matter of EXACTLY where it resides and how EXACTLY surface temps will behave.

 

I agree that overall it did better than the other models, but it was clearly far less infallible than it is sometimes made out to be here. I don't think it was the first model to show deformation either or at least not by much and it was still shuffling the band around by up to a 100 miles between runs just like the other models. 

[El_Nina]

Moderate snow now and 35.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New blog update from Mark:

 

YOUR EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE FINE THROUGH AT LEAST 6PM…EXCEPT POSSIBLY TURNING SNOWY EAST OF I-205, AND IN CENTRAL/NORTH CLARK COUNTY.

THIS EVENING & OVERNIGHT

1. Light snow continues falling east metro area and western Gorge + temperatures fall.  After sunset it cools enough that areas around Gresham/Troutdale/Camas/Estacada will definitely see sticking snow.  Maybe 1-2″ in those towns, possibly 3-4″ by the time you get up to Sandy, Corbett, and Mt. Pleasant area east of Washougal.  Cool air coming in from the north will likely freeze roads north of Vancouver in Clark County too.
2. West metro area shouldn’t see sticking snow tonight, of course a dusting is possible but that would be it.  Temperatures hang near freezing.
3. IF we get clearing tonight (a very big question), and temperatures fall to freezing, there could be icy spots in the morning on some roads.  Of course that happens many times in the winter so we’re used to that.

TECHNICAL TALK FOR THE WX GEEKS

That arctic front is uncomfortably close and I’m concerned that precip continuing this evening could turn much of the metro snowy after sunset.  The arctic front is the boundary of the cold/dry air where things are pretty much frozen.  It has progressed to Kelso west of the Cascades and Hood River in the eastern Gorge.  I’m worried about that brand new ECMWF showing cold/dry air surging up the Columbia River and into the metro area by 4pm.

 

If precipitation continues this evening, those lower dewpoints + evaporative cooling coming in from the north could easily push sticking snow right down into the city.  In fact ECMWF has temps dropping down to freezing after sunset.  Oh please no evening commute fiasco…

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2019/02/04/snowy-evening-commute-possible-northern-clark-county-and-far-east-metro/

[Deweydog]

I agree that overall it did better than the other models, but it was clearly far less infallible than it is sometimes made out to be here. I don't think it was the first model to show deformation either or at least not by much and it was still shuffling the band around by up to a 100 miles between runs just like the other models.

It shifted. Shifts happen, especially with dynamic patterns like this one. Here lies the problem with models in general. Our dependence on them is directly proportional to the difficulty they’ll have with the information we want. Rarely do we obsess and dissect the timing and exact placement of 49 degree warm frontal rain moving in from the SW.

[TT-SEA]

Not much of a strong signal for cold on the 12Z EPS in 12 days.   

 

This is getting ridiculous.   

 

[Deweydog]

Still 26 at SeaTac at noon. D**n impressive.

[Bryant]

There he is!!!

I've been enjoying the snow. Having Tim on ignore is much more enjoyable as well. He fills this place with unnecessary BS that only results in back and forth bickering

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not much of a strong signal for cold on the 12Z EPS in 12 days.   

 

This is getting ridiculous.   

 

 

Temps at 40+ don't really translate to all that anomalous so it would seem to this point that trend has not verified here yet.

[Deweydog]

I've been enjoying the snow. Having Tim on ignore is much more enjoyable as well. He fills this place with unnecessary BS that only results in back and forth bickering

Yeah, those Euro surface maps that I don’t have to pay for drive me NUTS.

[BLI snowman]

Flaking here.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, those Euro surface maps that I don’t have to pay for drive me NUTS.

 

 

I have also been personally attacking everyone for enjoying their snow and have been dragging everyone down with endless negativity.     

 

I am evil.