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February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

Guest hawkstwelve

By Guest hawkstwelve
in West of the Rockies

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SeanNyberg
SeanNyberg

I know we are like Leonardo DiCaprio on one of his yachts, waiting for the newest and freshest models to come out, but I just wanted to say Hi! I'm new to this forum. Studied meteorology at UW for two

Jesse
Jesse

Caught a nice sunset at Cape Horn earlier.    

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

OMG after seeing Andrew's posts I was so excited I pooped with the toilet seat up! and I didn't even care! Sure, it was messy and smelled, but OMG did you see that incredibly historically historic pa

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

BTW, for anyone who can afford it, I’d highly recommend purchasing the RadarScope app. It is, without question, the best radar app in the history of humanity.

 

Not just for the obvious reasons, either. It provides features like the correlation coefficient and specific differential phasing by altitude which allows you to see exactly where the rain/snow line is setting up, down to 0.25km, regardless of terrain (if you know said terrain, since you can adjust the beam angle). Throw in stuff like mPING reports, NWS reports, real-time lightning, stuff like digital VIL, the wife array of radar sites, and SPC/NOAA mesoscale discussions overlayed on the radar map, and it’s a no brainer IMO.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Hope that band of moisture making its way west can hold together. Need more snow ❄

 

 

Not going to make it.   It has stopped which makes sense since the main deformation band is well south of us now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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FWIW, this is good news for at least a more more normal summer *if* it proves to be persistent. Off-equator NE-Pacific cooling (-PMM tendency) right here. Would help tighten the EPAC ITCZ and displace the 4CH to the SE. The SE-Pacific warming is good news too, as is the modest -SIOD tendency (meaningless at this stage, of course).

 

Goes to show how wavebreaking in the extratropics of the winter hemisphere can feed-back on the tropics and subtropics of that hemisphere.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Too bad Fred didn’t add a love button.

 

I was going to ask if this sudden pattern shakeup might be modifying our warm season outlook a bit. But I figured we should get through the cold and snow first before looking ahead to spring and summer. :)

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
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44 and partly cloudy.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
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It seems like it has been many years since I have a day where the temp is 27 at 2pm and seeing snow falling outside. Another wave of moisture it rotating through here and snowing lightly. Wonderful day and just about perfect in every way!

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
Posted

Getting close to popping above freezing here. Tomorrow will be very iffy about whether it remains below freeing. Of course tomorrow morning should be frigid.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I don't think the difference between weak Nino and strongly positive neutral is such that it has any tangible impacts on our weather. All that matters for now is that Nino forcing hasn't kicked in to put its usual death stamp on our late winter.

Exactly this. The way the low pass ENSO signal yielded to the intraseasonal signal so prolifically back in late October/early November was eerily reminiscent of years like 1987/88 (which had timing differences w/ sub-seasonal dynamics, so not the best month to month analog but still had the quick ENSO fade).

 

But then again, I think this was predictable early on last spring, given the timing + structure of the OKW cycle last spring/summer under the antecedent thermocline/IPWP condition and preceding solar state having still been evident in the thermals at the top of the Hadley Cell/ZWL.

 

Unlike 1987/88, however, we’re not radiatively warming the tropical upper troposphere/upper HC, since we’re not rapidly terminating solar minimum in 2019. Also, QBO/MQI is slower, and IPWP/low pass forcing structure + tendency is already in a pre-niño state where the +QBO may actually help, via the destruction of the intraseasonal cycle going through boreal spring/summer, allowing for the low pass signal to take over.

 

So in some ways, despite the immediate structural wavetrain similarities in the middle latitudes thanks to the residual SSW effects, 2019 is kind of the anti-2018 just in terms of the feedback structure in the tropics. Don’t let the similarities to 2018 fool you. Even if we end up with another cold Arctic spring with a strong TPV and/or frigid late season intrusions into the middle latitudes, this is no 2018.

 

Unlike last year, I think El Niño is a real possibility this year, and it will be a slow, steady march in that direction after the equinox, kind of similar to what happened in 2009, except the QBO is lagging by a bit, and the IO/ATL/WHEM sector isn’t playing by the same rules.

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

Getting close to popping above freezing here. Tomorrow will be very iffy about whether it remains below freeing. Of course tomorrow morning should be frigid.

I’m seeing 27 at SEA, 21 at BLI as of 2pm. Hard to imagine temps close to above freezing in between those two locations (even closer to the outflow). Might want to check your thermo for overexposure.

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