February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[BLI snowman]

Down to 37 from 37 an hour ago...

 

Hockinson is a pretty horrible place.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hindsight is 20-20, but given the dead Sun + the clear downwelling NAM/SSW signal conjunct the ERW train present across the Indo-Pacific, I’m not sure how I (or anyone else) could have bailed on this winter.

 

Sure, the timing was fluky as hell, and the SSW/-NAM took an eternity to downwell to the tropopause fighting the niño/wave-3 disconnect, but that downwelling signal was very obvious (and extremely potent across time), so there was no season to think it would be trumped by a niño signal so weak that it barely registers in the low pass VP filters.

 

I should have seen this one coming. Bad miss. I guess I let Justin’s “niño climo” stuff spook me.

 

You're not the only one. I gave up too. This is two winters in a row now that I said stick a fork/pitchfork in it prematurely.  I could just say I'm using reverse psycology but deep down I thought we were finished both winters.

[Jesse]

Down to 37 from 37 an hour ago...

Down to 34 here. The homeless guy and I are hanging out eating baked beans from a can and shooting up black tar heroin.

[Deweydog]

Nino is dead. Long live Nada.

If we go snowless for this stretch it will be entirely on you. Not cool.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Some cool clouds caused by Fraser outflow.

 

GOES-17 rapid scan imagery is aimed at Western Washington today. Outflow from the Fraser is creating some interesting wave clouds downwind from Vancouver Island into the Strait. Also, there are cloud streets forming to southwest of the Victoria BC area. pic.twitter.com/vfLiRSaq5i

— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) February 4, 2019

 

[Deweydog]

Down to 34 here. The homeless guy and I are hanging out eating baked beans from a can and shooting up black tar heroin.

Why does he have to be a drug user?

[Perturbed Member]

Radar looks decent enough to make me cautiously optimistic. Temps won't be much of an issue. This low level arctic air is a beast.

 

Yeah the radar does look a bit better than I expected. Will be fun to watch what happens now in downtown as that cold air moves in under that steady precip in the next few hours. 

[Jesse]

Nice to see PDX holding at the same temp through peak insolation.

[BLI snowman]

If we go snowless for this stretch it will be entirely on you. Not cool.

 

Saw flakes. 1991-92 and 2002-03 are so over!

[TT-SEA]

Nino is dead. Long live Nada.

 

 

I did mention that to you as well when I was trying to convince you this was coming.  

 

 

But this is not really Nino...

 

 

[BLI snowman]

Yeah the radar does look a bit better than I expected. Will be fun to watch what happens now in downtown as that cold air moves in under that steady precip in the next few hours. 

 

18z NAM looks good for a widespread 1/2" to perhaps 1.5" out to about Forest Grove. Would be pretty okay with that.

[Requiem]

Well, NWS just cancelled the winter weather advisory, and Nelsen is calling for snow East Metro and hills. This could be decent.

[seattleweatherguy]

Anymore snow or we done for today

[Jesse]

Why does he have to be a drug user?

The same reason he has to be schizophrenic and yelling at a sign.

[Phil]

Do you think this will go out beyond ten days from now? Or Do you think we will end with a undercutting system around ten days from now?

Yes. The larger scale pattern should start to transition a bit during the third week of the month, but it will keep cool/cold air in the vicinity during said transition, so winter storms are certainly still a possibility during that timeframe. So there is **plenty** of time left for this to run. So anyone who misses out today should not fret, because at the bare minimum there are two weeks of chances left, and possibly three weeks if the transitional week is cold too.

 

I don’t know how winter storm climatology works out there, but around here we often get our biggest snows coming out of a blocking pattern. If that’s how it works out there, than the third week of the month probably does something fun.

 

In 2016 it was looking bleak, then we got that big 40” blizzard right at the tail end of the blocky pattern (which had failed miserably up until that point). So you never know when ma’ nature will blow her load. Sometimes it’s last minute.

[Deweydog]

Saw flakes. 1991-92 and 2002-03 are so over!

[Geos]

 

1210pm #SitRep: Main snow band that was over the Seattle metro area this AM has weakened & moved west toward the Kitsap Peninsula. However, we are monitoring another band that has developed over Stevens & Snoqualmie Pass moving west toward the Puget Sound Lowlands. #wawx #wasnow pic.twitter.com/y7g9BBHJPa

— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) February 4, 2019

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

 

Was just about to mention that...

 

[Blizzard777]

Daughter reported snowflakes in Tigard

[Deweydog]

The same reason he has to be schizophrenic and yelling at a sign.

Schizophrenia is not a choice. Your implicit biases have him making poor life choices. Bad boy.

[BLI snowman]

I did mention that to you as well when I was trying to convince you this was coming.  

 

Nino may have crapped the bed just in time.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

Schizophrenia is not a choice. Your implicit biases have him making poor life choices. Bad boy.

Maybe mental illness lead to the drug use?

 

#alltoocommon

[TT-SEA]

Was just about to mention that...

 

 

 

I believe this is the northern edge of the Portland deformation zone... I don't think its going to keep spreading to the NW like the previous bands.   Its probably going to move more west or southwest as it rounds the top of the circle now that the main low is much further south.

[Cloud]

Anymore snow or we done for today

There is another band developing from the east and heading towards DT Seattle.

[Deweydog]

Maybe mental illness lead to the drug use?

 

#alltoocommon

He’s just not that kind of guy. He had a lead position at a Kinkos in Renton. He just lost it. He’s also hypertensive which doesn’t help.

[BLI snowman]

 

It snowed a lot the winter that came out.

[Esquimalt]

If there continues to be a Fraser outflow component it’s hard to believe we won’t catch up with other areas at some point. We will have to see

Models are suggesting that. It just can’t be too strong—two February’s ago was a beautiful example of what weak to moderate outflow can do

[Perturbed Member]

18z NAM looks good for a widespread 1/2" to perhaps 1.5" out to about Forest Grove. Would be pretty okay with that.

 

Yep, just enough to coat everything makes a world of difference. 

[Jesse]

He’s just not that kind of guy. He had a lead position at a Kinkos in Renton. He just lost it. He’s also hypertensive which doesn’t help.

I think he really went downhill after his marriage fell apart and he lost the house. Drought played a role too I’m sure.

[Deweydog]

It snowed a lot the winter that came out.

It’s all coming together!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG down to 38.7.  Still 41 here. 

[Deweydog]

I think he really went downhill after his marriage fell apart and he lost the house. Drought played a role too I’m sure.

Really it all started with a case of PTSD after he witnessed multiple drownings on Lake Washington during a Sudden Stratospheric Marine Push in July 2010.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I believe this is the northern edge of the Portland deformation zone... I don't think its going to keep spreading to the NW like the previous bands.   Its probably going to move more west or southwest as it rounds the top of the circle now that the main low is much further south.

It will fizzle like the rest did that went west. It got over here and vanished.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

It will fizzle like the rest did that went west. It got over here and vanished.

 

 

Not sure there is much to it anyways... its technically now over me and its not doing anything at all.  

 

Of course its a little harder to tell when its snowing when the entire world out there is all white.   

[Blizzard777]

Daughter reported snowflakes in Tigard

A little wet bulb cooling. ...hope cold air fortifies from the north so she can have snow

[Jesse]

Really it all started with a case of PTSD after he witnessed multiple drownings on Lake Washington during a Sudden Stratospheric Marine Push in July 2010.

The homeless guy/cold airmass is Tim. No wonder he nailed the first week of Feb with such precision!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not sure there is much to it anyways... its technically now over me and its not doing anything at all.  

 

Of course its a little harder to tell when its snowing when the entire world out there is all white.   

What was your final? what's temp there?

[kokaneekidz]

That band coming off the Cascades is intensifying!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Someone spotted Cliff Mass walking around with a wig and lipstick on today. Wierd.