February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[TT-SEA]

We literally posted the same map at the same exact moment.  

[TT-SEA]

Shows about 6-12 hours of rain for me too...Didn't Seattle start as rain Sunday too...This run looks like a carbon copy.

 

It is very similar.   But this one seems to have more southerly flow ahead of it and there is not really cold air just to the west of Puget Sound like there was last Sunday.

 

Here is the period when it shows rain. 

 

 

Small surface details are different but the track is really close.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got about a half inch here. At least we didn't get completely skunked this winter.

Yup. Really pretty this morning.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The low sliding south off the coast is irrelevant. We are looking for a low to form off Vancouver Island later in the day Friday. Did you see the 12Z ICON. It is the ideal setup for southern Vancouver Island.

 

I'm not liking how all the lows are sliding offshore to the SW because we've been burned so many times by that; I typically prefer to see them loop off the island then come ashore somewhere south of here. That said, the models are hinting at a slower moving low that stalls out a bit and that could work in our favor. The potential is huge.

[ShawniganLake]

It is. I would say 4 to 8 inches from that one. Thoughts?

It’s hard for models to handle these lows very well in advance, but they did quite well with the track of the last one. I still like 4-6” based on what I’m seeing but the potential for something bigger is definitely in play.

[Esquimalt]

It is very similar.   But this one seems to have more southerly flow ahead of it and there is not really cold air just to the west of Puget Sound like there was last Sunday.

 

Here is the period when it shows rain. 

 

 

Small surface details are different but the track is really close.

It's showing as a massive snowfall here even though we got nothing from the last one.  Subtle but significant differences. 

[Esquimalt]

I'm not liking how all the lows are sliding offshore to the SW because we've been burned so many times by that; I typically prefer to see them loop off the island then come ashore somewhere south of here. That said, the models are hinting at a slower moving low that stalls out a bit and that could work in our favor. The potential is huge.

This one is much more promising than the Sunday one.  I think we can say that much 

[Timmy]

Looks like it snowed more overnight. Up to 1.25” out there. Everything is absolutely flocked, looks gorgeous.

 

Temp is down to 26 now with clearing skies, DP 19. Feels surreal that this could be just the first event.

nice, I think you got the same amount as me

[Andrew.]

Live look from Portland this morning after 1 inch of snow fell across the city. Thoughts and prayers.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOW

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

This one is much more promising than the Sunday one.  I think we can say that much 

 

Definitely a lot more potential and we never fully lose the offshore wind component from the looks of it. The GEM/GFS/ICON all look promising this morning, would be nice to see the ECMWF latch onto this as well:

 

[Timmy]

The gem buries I-5 from Redding to the Canadian border this weekend

[Esquimalt]

Definitely a lot more potential and we never fully lose the offshore wind component from the looks of it. The GEM/GFS/ICON all look promising this morning, would be nice to see the ECMWF latch onto this as well:

 

The EURO really wasn't impressive last night for this area so I'm hoping we see a turnaround this morning 

[Kayla]

Starting to doubt that I'll ever get above 15F again...

[TT-SEA]

Sun!

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

The GEM is just one snowy trough after another. Spreads the wealth fairly well

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looks more like the 00Z ECMWF for the system on Monday... great for the Seattle area.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah if the GEM verified, the "loser" would be EUG and Roseburg...with over 6" both spots.

[Kayla]

The GEM is just one snowy trough after another. Spreads the wealth fairly well

 

The GEM is historic. Feb 1936 / Jan 1969 mix. Pretty incredible.

[snow maniac]

Hoping I don’t get stuck in the shadow of the olympics again, only got 1/2 inch here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

THE GEM is totally insane. GFS still pretty good up here...Would easily get me close to the 18" total I had last February.

[Jbolin]

Sun!

 

 

Your location looks like virtually any mountain pass nearby when it snows.

[ShawniganLake]

Vancouver Island was cold this morning.

17F here

[Geos]

Total snow over the next week...

 

Wow! 13° here right now.

[Jesse]

How low did Arlington go?

[Alex_Snakes]

GFS for Saturday is rain south of Seattle. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Snow still coating everything but the roads.     Boy it's a relief to not be shut out and we can put 14-15 in the rear view mirror. Definitely ranked above that one now, and other stinkers that didn't even have a dusting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM has 4 separate snow events for the lowlands. 

[Jesse]

Loving all the maps this morning with snow across the region and a narrow band of rain over the Willamette Valley up through Portland. Lol.

[El_Nina]

Maxed out at 3" here this morning. The perpetual snow lasted all night until 5 this morning. It was lightly snowing for 16 hours straight. 27*

[Jesse]

Hope the Euro sticks with its theme of snowier regionally.

[TT-SEA]

Maxed out at 3" here this morning. The perpetual snow lasted all night until 5 this morning. It was lightly snowing for 16 hours straight. 27*

 

 

Very nice!   

[Jesse]

Cliff Mass and the Portland NOAA office tell me it will be rain and a trace for elevations above 14,000 feet.

Might have to cancel my picnic and annual cherry tree planting on top of Rainier then. Ugh!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm going to say this will not verify. Maybe a GFS, ICON, GEM blend.

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Loving all the maps this morning with snow across the region and a narrow band of rain over the Willamette Valley up through Portland. Lol.

 

One model brother. GEM, NAVGEM, and ICON are outstanding! 

[Blizzard777]

I’ve already sold my soul to only winter snow next two weeks! Nervous

It’s like going all in with your chips

[wxmet]

Wouldn’t worry too much about thermals until we get closer to the event. Models might be scouring out the cold air too quickly especially with the high in place to the north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Assuming this is all snow?

 

Major snowy regional blast!

[Jesse]

One model brother. GEM, NAVGEM, and ICON are outstanding!

 

Good to hear brotha. Haven’t had time to look too closely at the models yet this morning.

[Frontal Snowsquall]