February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Kayla]

GFS is also really good in the long range. Reinforcing shots of cold air and snow after another. Incredible.

[Jesse]

I’ve already sold my soul to only winter snow next two weeks! Nervous

It’s like going all in with your chips

I know what you mean. I feel like all of the epic EPS posts have raised my expectations unreasonably high for the next few weeks.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[MossMan]

Think I would have had no problem getting to the single digits if it wasn’t for those scud clouds that moved in overnight. Currently 15 here in north Everett where I just took my mom for a doc appointment. Shockingly everyone drove safe and sane and the drive went fine. One guy in a Crown Vic was facing the wrong way and off in the ditch at I-5 at Smokey Point. Otherwise I did not see much carnage out on the roads. I sure hope we do not have a period of rain this weekend, the snow is so nice and soft for my dogs paws, last February we had that 6hr period of above freezing melting before things froze solid which made the snow crunchy and terrible for dog pads!! Bloody snow paw prints is no fun. Let’s keep it all snow!!!!

[Guest Sounder]

Amazing how pretty even just 1.5" can be.

[Kayla]

I'm going to say this will not verify. Maybe a GFS, ICON, GEM blend.

 

 

 

 

And that is assuming 10:1 snow ratios. The region would likely see up to 15:1 ratios or greater at times throughout the period. Out here...more like 45:1 so more like 3 feet of snow. 

[TT-SEA]

I-90 at Snoqualmie Ridge... gorgeous morning.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I think the gfs is a bit of outlier the way it pulls the low to the sw on sat. Either way if you average out all the models this weekend will be the largest widespread snow since 08. 5-15 inches easy.

[Farmboy]

Wow, historic looking models, I'm excited for you guys. Gonna be a fun ride.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I just woke up but the model runs so far today look outstanding. The 12z UKMET just came in and it looks great days 4 to 6. Going to go outside now and play in the snow! ❄

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Alex_Snakes]

FV3 looks like rain or freezing rain south of Seattle as well for Saturday. Dumps north of Seattle though. 

 

Models are going to flop around a bit so hopefully they will swing back. 

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX fell to 25 or 26 in the last half hour. That’s impressive for this late in the morning. Shows what snowcover can do.

 

Either of those temps would easily beat their season low of 29.

[jcmcgaffey]

My phone usually seems to follow the ECMWF closely... and updates often happen after a new ECMWF run is completed. But its been WAY off this week. On Sunday it was showing highs in the low 40s here all week with a chance of rain/snow on a couple days.

I really like he wunderground app. Seems fairly accurate compared to others and just googling the weather.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow 1059mb high sliding down sw bc at the same time the low is gaining steam. This could be a brutal windy time for north sound. I doubt there will be rain anywhere north of Olympia at least.

[MossMan]

I absolutely love where I live now...this was my main road this morning when heading out. They plowed the road but didn’t put any sand or deicer down...which is okay with me. Straight flat road so no problem.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Vancouver down to 22!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

33 with a small coating of snow on the grass and roofs. Still pretty.

 

Would be nice to keep the cloud cover through the daylight hours so as to not get well into the 40s like yesterday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had some brief sunshine earlier. Will get mighty cold tonight if there is any clearing over this snow pack.

 

[jcmcgaffey]

A couple things I've noticed as a Northerner living amongst all y'all Southerners

 

The roads are far more "icier" down here in WA. By this point in Juneau everything would be plowed and sanded. The packed snow just turns to a total slick mess with everyone driving on it.

 

Have to laugh at the number of "bunker cars" that I have seen.... people driving around in snow covered car with a little "slit" of snow brushed off for them to view while driving. Kind of hilarious until I realize that I'm sharing the road with these people.

 

I've seen one plow truck in Everett.. Probably the only one? Lol.

 

 

With this cold weather a good trick is to put some silicone oil on the rubber gaskets on your car door, that way it will be easier to open and save the rubber from getting torn up.

 

Got some good ice climbing in on Chair Peak up on Snoqualmie on Sunday. Now I'm starting to wonder if some lower elevation ice will be good to go! I'm super excited about this.

 

 

Nice! I have climbed chair peak in the past and did a bit of rock climbing but have never ice climbed there. Is it any good?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensembles are a little warmer for the weekend. Still -6.5C mean at PDX. Lots of colder members too.

[Jesse]

Vancouver down to 22!

 

Yeah, it really plummeted the last few hours which I wasn't expecting. Fell to 23 here, bounced back up to 25 now.

 

Should see a high in the 35-37 range today. Teens possible tonight if it stays clear.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother down in Coos Bay/North Bend had more accumulating snow overnight. Very rare on the Southern Oregon Coast.

 

Medford and Grants Pass currently below freezing and receiving snow. A true regional event.

[antipex]

Picked up about 2 inches here in SE Gresham ~350 ft. It felt good to get something decent after what happened in Seattle!

 

http://stareatthewall.com/IMG_1229.jpg

[Omegaraptor]

 

Absolutely EPIC forecast for Government Camp.

[Front Ranger]

How low did Arlington go?

 

8

 

#fail

[TT-SEA]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

OMG the fv3 is stalling the low off the cost.

[TT-SEA]

Did you guys get better internet up there?

 

 

Comcast "Blast" internet... 200+ Mbps. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow man awesome. I wana go to my cabin!! it was minus 11 there at 8am.

[TT-SEA]

OMG the fv3 is stalling the low off the cost.

 

 

Looks like its about the same as its 00Z run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The low on the FV-3 is about 50 miles closer to the coast and it makes massive differences for NW Oregon. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Fwiw the fv3 shows it snowing in Seattle for 60hrs straight and still going.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensembles are a notch warmer than they have been. Still stays about -4.5C and below. 

 

Pretty clear trend for a warm up to near average by about the 20th. Would make sense to at least have a break. Would be nice if it i with ridging so we could enjoy some warm sunny days and cold crisp nights. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like its about the same as its 00Z run.

I ignore it because not having the NW view drives me nuts.

[Esquimalt]

FV3 shows 10-14 inches here

[Jesse]

The low on the FV-3 is about 50 miles closer to the coast and it makes massive differences for NW Oregon. 

 

Thanks for the detailed interpretation!

[Jesse]

Yesterday alone dropped PDX to -1.9 for the month to date. Today should come in even colder.

[TT-SEA]

Just a reminder... I am in a meeting from about 10-12 and will not be able to post ECMWF maps in real time.   I might be able to sneak some in at some point but I could be presenting from my computer and the other people probably don't want to see me saving and uploading weather maps.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thanks for the detailed interpretation!

 

Kind of a one and done deal on the FV-3 though. THROW IT OUT!

[Requiem]

Really nice little event (which the HRRR and EURO handled really well). Now I'm just hoping that the GFS comes around to the EURO and GEM and FV3 and gives PDX some more snow into this weekend.