St Paul Storm Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Looks like the globals were right after all. Can’t remember a time when all meso models bowed to the globals as the event was unfolding. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Looks like the globals were right after all. Can’t remember a time when all meso models bowed to the globals as the event was unfolding.Ya I am guessing things are actually heavier than I expected back at my house as well though nothing like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Maybe .1 mile vis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Looks like the globals were right after all. Can’t remember a time when all meso models bowed to the globals as the event was unfolding.What I notice is that sometimes the meso models will pick up on something early, and then the global will follow. But if the global continue to be consistent up until the event, they do sometimes win that battle. Of course, that’s not how it always work, but I’ve seen the global “win” those battles before as well. Just like the global model, the meso models aren’t without fault either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 In other news la crosse is going to hold off on headlines for the next event until these expire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 What I notice is that sometimes the meso models will pick up on something early, and then the global will follow. But if the global continue to be consistent up until the event, they do sometimes win that battle. Of course, that’s not how it always work, but I’ve seen the global “win” those battles before as well. Just like the global model, the meso models aren’t without fault either.Yeah I’m just kinda surprised that all of the mesos showed the same thing, and they were all wrong. Doesn’t happen often. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Radar backfilling to the west. I’m enjoying this as I don’t get any work done this afternoon. Ripping hard out there. Quarters falling from the sky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Looks like there are reports of thunder in SE Iowa, just south of the quad cities. Wonder if that’s thunder ice or thunder sleet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Whole thing is about done here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 We had a bit of freezing rain, but it has mostly been sleet. These last couple cells have dropped moderate to heavy sleet. Radar suggests we are mostly done with the heavier stuff. This event doesn't seem to be too big of a deal here. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 We had a bit of freezing rain, but it has mostly been sleet. These last couple cells have dropped moderate to heavy sleet. Radar suggests we are mostly done with the heavier stuff. This event doesn't seem to be too big of a deal here.HRRR does develop some more FZR later tonight, but it won’t add up to a whole lot. That said, it doesn’t really take much freezing rain to cause a mess. Luckily it’ll be during a time where the roads are much less traveled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 The chase was a great choice. On the bluff overlooking red wing. Really great stuff 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 The chase was a great choice. On the bluff overlooking red wing. Really great stuff Was it barn bluff?! So weird, my family lives like right there, literally got a snap from downtown red wing just a few minutes ago. That's so cool you're there, it looks like it's rip city! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Some pretty heavy sleet right now. I think? Guess I don’t know what constitutes as heavy sleet lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Been snowing light to moderate for most of the day. Roads are a disaster even his far north. Can't imagine down south a bit. NWS sitting on around 4 to 5 on the next system. Fun, fun, fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Raining here, not freezing yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Congrats on the chase Gosaints. Still pound town here. Rush hour disaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Was it barn bluff?! So weird, my family lives like right there, literally got a snap from downtown red wing just a few minutes ago. That's so cool you're there, it looks like it's rip city!small world yes I was there. Now overlooking frontenac area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 What kind of vehicle do you use to drive around in that stuff, gosaints? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 4wd explorer. Lots of practice.. It has made the hobby more enjoyable. There is over 7 inches here 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 4wd explorer. Lots of practice.. It has made the hobby more enjoyable. There is over 7 inches hereWow, that’s some impressive thump snow. Congrats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Wow, that’s some impressive thump snow. Congrats.fun afternoon.... What are your thoughts for the next system. I haven't focused on it much. Thinking a borderline warning/advisory event?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 fun afternoon.... What are your thoughts for the next system. I haven't focused on it much. Thinking a borderline warning/advisory event??Models seem to be painting .50” QPF up around your area, but I’m not sure what ratios are like. I’m thinking a warning is very much in play for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 fun afternoon.... What are your thoughts for the next system. I haven't focused on it much. Thinking a borderline warning/advisory event??YI'm thinking you'll get a warning...great track for your area and the wind looks strong as well...great potential for a sweet defo band pivoting right over you and into Wisco. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 I believe every model now has some rain for me with the next system. There’s also some snow and ice mixed in at various points. That just sounds pretty terrible, but will be interesting to watch develop I suppose. Sounds like freezing rain, to regular rain, back to freezing rain. Euro wants to give me 1-3” of snow on the backside, but I think that’s one of most (if not THE most) aggressive models in regards to that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc400 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 It's icing up quickly in my area. Roads are mostly ok but slow. But any untreated surfaces are solidly glazed over. The rain was mixed just enough with ice pellets to give a little texture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 NWS Hastings now saying some snow bands may produce 3-4” tomorrow night with blowing and drifting preceded by various frozen precipitation types. Might be pretty rough travel around this area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. They also mentioned many chances for snow in the next week. Giddy up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Still snowing moderately here in St Paul. Just measured about 6” OTG. Another 4-7” in the point for the next round tomorrow night into Thursday, with up to 0.1” of ice now added. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 A lot of lightning here and pouring rain. So much for the ice storm. Glad they were wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Nam looks like a drizzle fest around here tomorrow night.... Maybe a couple inches for msp verbatim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 The NAM continues to be the least excited about the system coming tomorrow night into Thursday... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 The NAM continues to be the least excited about the system coming tomorrow night into Thursday...Both the NAM and 3km are showing at least 7” here and 5” there. What’s not to like? After their performance today I’m not inclined to believe them, however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 OAX is still absolutely not excited about this. Not even an advisory for here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 OAX is still absolutely not excited about this. Not even an advisory for here.So weird seeing the empty space of no advisories in the central part of the state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 It's like someone dumped a giant snowcone on me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 A slight SE shift on the GFS, but still keep me in rain for a good portion of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 GFS is SE but it's also notably drier. No really appreciable returns so that negates the SE shift. Even lessens amounts in fact. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 GRR has 0.3"-0.4" of ice on the grids in some places. So why on Earth is the entire CWA in a WWA instead of some being in an ice storm warning? That makes absolutely no sense. Same goes for DTX. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 GFS is SE but it's also notably drier. No really appreciable returns so that negates the SE shift. Even lessens amounts in fact.Not drier for everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 GRR has 0.3"-0.4" of ice on the grids in some places. So why on Earth is the entire CWA in a WWA instead of some being in an ice storm warning? That makes absolutely no sense. Same goes for DTX. GRR defaults to a WWA unless pushed, pulled, held at gun point, etc.. to go warning (for anything) it seems these days. Besides, WAA has been robust this winter and they may well be riding that pony. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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