TT-SEA Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 No use in begging him or anyone else really, only Tim has control over the lows track.If I controlled it... the low would be going through San Francisco. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Going out to eat dinner with some friends. See you all later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Trends Jesse. We are 3 days out. Looking for trends. You will now watch all of the 00Z runs trend WAY north. Enjoy.Are you home now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Going out to eat dinner with some friends. See you all later. Hope you return to some good news 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 I think that chehalis north will be prime, I just don’t think the models are gonna take the low from landing in brookings OR to Forks WA in like 18 hours haha but we all thought February 11th was gonna be a slam dunk and it didn’t fully come to be 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 I think that chehalis north will be prime, I just don’t think the models are gonna take the low from landing in brookings OR to Forks WA in like 18 hours haha but we all thought February 11th was gonna be a slam dunk and it didn’t fully come to be Chehalis south should probably expect cold rain with the way this is going. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Chehalis south should probably expect cold rain with the way this is going. you never know things could change Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 you never know GFS already seems to have a northward trend to it, so.... Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewnichols25 Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Chehalis south should probably expect cold rain with the way this is going.Portland could get a surprise ice storm with enough Gorge outflow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Portland could get a surprise ice storm with enough Gorge outflow. Fingers crossed! Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 No idea how... but the MM5 NAM is completely different than the NAM and has everything so far north that even Seattle is too warm by Monday morning. Again... just looking for trends. Looking at all models for trends... even if they are garbage they still tend to trend in one direction or another and that is more information. What is comical is that the MM5 NAM is totally different than the NAM itself and not sure how that happens. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 No idea how... but the MM5 NAM is completely different than the NAM and has everything so far north that even Seattle is too warm by Monday morning. Again... just looking for trends. Looking at all models for trends... even if they are garbage they still tend to trend in one direction or another and that is more information. What is comical is that the MM5 NAM is totally different than the NAM itself and not sure how that happens. Alright, this time I'm not so concerned, it's just the MM5. You are right about the trends though. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Okay, I'm not getting my hopes up cause I'm probably seeing things, but the GFS might have shifted the low pressure system a notch south, Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Been a long time since we had a low track from this angle and hit the sweet spot for the sound. Long time.November 1996 I believe Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Ok, Columbia River landfall tracking NE south of me, boom, lock it in!! I am due... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 South trend on gfs. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 I thought for sure Tim told the gfs to go north not south 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 GFS actually looks like it trending south. I will celebrate if I am wrong about this northward trend. You will not have to mock me because I be all over that myself and love it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 South trend on gfs. So, maybe I'm not seeing things? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Portland could get a surprise ice storm with enough Gorge outflow. Yuck. I hate ice storms...mainly because I have big trees around my house. We had some ice with the event that brought the epic snow to North Bend, and it made the usual mess. It is pretty interesting that I've had rain, snow, graupel, freezing rain, and sleet this month. Nicely rounded for sure! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 South trend on gfs.It's wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Pretty nuts to see major models struggle this close by a huge margin. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Keep it moving north! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 South! LOL 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Good bit further south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Keep it over Portland! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 No idea how... but the MM5 NAM is completely different than the NAM and has everything so far north that even Seattle is too warm by Monday morning. Again... just looking for trends. Looking at all models for trends... even if they are garbage they still tend to trend in one direction or another and that is more information. What is comical is that the MM5 NAM is totally different than the NAM itself and not sure how that happens. The NAM MM5 is atrocious. On the first round of cold that hit that model spit out a high in the low 40s on the day it was in the 20s during the afternoon. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 6z will jog it north. Big time. Book it. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 We know nothing yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 I defended you, Tim, when you did your whole “publicity stunt” a month ago. But you are being pretty rediculus now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Good bit further southNot really Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 The NAM MM5 is atrocious. On the first round of cold that hit that model spit out a high in the low 40s on the day it was in the 20s during the afternoon. Yeah... its really bad. The only reason I ever look at it is for trends. The GFS MOS has been terrible this month as well... way worse than normal. It did not even recognize the snow event and cold last week. It just plugged along with mid 40s every day. Its normally decent... way better than the operational GFS output. But it seemingly is not programmed to even recognize that this pattern is happening. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 The good news for Seattle with a further south track on Monday is the fact it means the cold air is more entrenched. Hopefully we will get ours on Sunday morning. Right now I'm going 1 to 4 inches for the EPSL at that time. I reserve the right to change this though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Not reallySee for yourself18z 00z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 About as acrimonious a north/south divide over the path of a low as I’ve ever seen here. Except for some northern saints like SnowWizard and Snowmizer who are being pretty cool about the whole thing. And the new guy from Tacoma. Definitely nice to see the 00z GFS trend south, though. Any sort of trend like that at this juncture is pretty important to see if Portland hopes to get anything. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 About as acrimonious a north/south divide over the path of a low as I’ve ever seen here. Except for some northern saints like SnowWizard and Snowmizer who are being pretty cool about the whole thing. And the new guy from Tacoma. Definitely nice to see the 00z GFS trend south, though. Any sort of trend like that at this juncture is pretty important to see if Portland hopes to get anything.Lynnwood and points north. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Lynnwood and points north.Shut up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Shut up.Vancouver B. C to Redding. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 About as acrimonious a north/south divide over the path of a low as I’ve ever seen here. Except for some northern saints like SnowWizard and Snowmizer who are being pretty cool about the whole thing. And the new guy from Tacoma. Definitely nice to see the 00z GFS trend south, though. Any sort of trend like that at this juncture is pretty important to see if Portland hopes to get anything. 00z FV3 trended way south as well and it was the first model to trend aggressively north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Vancouver B. C to Redding.Mexico City to ten miles south of Mossman’s house. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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