February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[MossMan]

I’m sorry guys but I just don’t know what to call for at this point.

Will need to wait until tomorrow nights Euro I think.

[bainbridgekid]

Don't look at it if you are in Portland.   It will dampen your mood.   Shifted north.  

Still gives Portland a ton of snow. They are right on the Southern edge though.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Canadian is at... cannon beach.

[Phil]

Off topic, but that is about the tightest packed low I've ever seen in my life East of the Philippines.

 

Like a 70mb gradient over about 100 miles.

 

That’s a tropical system. They tend to do that.

[Bryant]

I like it. Including snow! Gotta take advantage of these are occasions when a regional snowstorm is *potentially* imminent.

 

Too bad only Portland and Seattle stations are recording snowfall, though. <_>

Tell me about it

[TT-SEA]

Hardly anyone thinks like you, and I am not talking about your yuppie neighbors or cliques!

 

So everyone in this area is cheering for more snow huh?   

 

So stupid.     And completely wrong.  

[bainbridgekid]

That’s a tropical system. They tend to do that.

Of course.

 

But even for a Hurricane/Cyclone/Typhoon, that is an extremely tightly packed one. I'm not used to looking at that region though. The scale may be throwing me off a bit and make it look even more tightly packed than it is.

[TT-SEA]

Still gives Portland a ton of snow. They are right on the Southern edge though.

 

I saw one frame on Monday afternoon... that is about as much time I can spend on the GEM.   

 

[TT-SEA]

Hell... even some of the weather geeks up on this forum have said they are fine with the next storm hitting Portland because of all the issues we have had with snow this month.

 

If people on a weather forum are OK with missing out on snow for the sake of regular life returning... you know most "normal" people around here are also fine with no more snow. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just got home. Been a long day of not working at work. Ready to see what the UKMET and EURO will show.

[Kayla]

Well they slid down the coast because there was strong blocking in place, this time it gets undercut instead following the weak spots of the ridge south.

 

The block doesn't get undercut until possibly Tuesday though and even that is in question. Block strength is similar albeit a little higher latitude and kind of ebbs and flows a little more than earlier this month.

 

Things are just a bit more progressive this go-around which pays off for us.

[Bryant]

ICON definitely shifted south for Monday compared to its 12Z run.

 

All the 00Z models so far have shifted south.

 

Now watch the ECMWF come out another 150 miles north. Up the ante! Its like a game of Jenga when there are almost no moves left and someone pulls out one more block and smiles cockily at their opponent.

Yes please!

[Phil]

Of course.

 

But even for a Hurricane/Cyclone/Typhoon, that is an extremely tightly packed one. I'm not used to looking at that region though. The scale may be throwing me off a bit and make it look even more tightly packed than it is.

I think it might be the model itself as much as the scale (which is a bit wide/low res there). The GFS runs uncoupled to ocean dynamics and tends to overdeepen tropical cyclones as a result since it can’t factor in upwelling/etc. Remember the 870mb superbombs it had w/ Florence last year?

 

If there’s one benefit the FV3 has, it’s that it does run coupled to the ocean, and doesn’t produce those erroneously deep pressures.

[bainbridgekid]

Hell... even some of the weather geeks up on this forum have said they are fine with the next storm hitting Portland because of all the issues we have had with snow this month.

 

If people on a weather forum are OK with missing out on snow for the sake of normal life returning... you know most "normal" people around here are also fine with no more snow. 

I can confirm that most of the same people I know who were extremely excited for the snow earlier this month groaned when I mentioned the possibility of more snow Monday.

 

But we aren't normal people. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It was technically day 3-4 (84hrs) w/ an elongated center/partial capture. At 72hrs it caught on, but man, what a stressful week of model riding. That was when the term “goofus” was born.

Oh, I didn't know that was where that term came from lol. Yeah, that must of been one heck of a model riding period. It brought not only wind but snow to that region.

[MossMan]

Snow until the second week of March. Then I will be good with spring springing and getting things done outside. But 99.2 percent of weather geeks will choose snow and cold over “normal” 51 degree rain right now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

To much snow lol. Pussys.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM goes a bit north, but then tracks east and keeps us cool through the end of the run. I could deal with that!

[TT-SEA]

Here you go Chris... just a small sample from the North Bend facebook group today.    

 

 

 

 

 

Many people in North Bend are lifelong residents.

 

I like the woman who said aloud "fucck me" when she saw it snowing today.   I could post many more pages... its been a common theme this month after the first snowstorm.   And not one post from me.      

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had to go scrape the snow off the dish. 

[MossMan]

The fact that we are even having this “too much snow” debate is insane...think back to just one month ago...haha!

[TT-SEA]

I can confirm that most of the same people I know who were extremely excited for the snow earlier this month groaned when I mentioned the possibility of more snow Monday.

 

But we aren't normal people. 

 

 

That is definitely a true statement!  

[MossMan]

Had to go scrape the snow off the dish.

My dishes are too high to get to...didn’t have tv and internet most of the day. Didn’t have this issue earlier in the month since most of the snow was of the dry powdery variety.

[TT-SEA]

The fact that we are even having this “too much snow” debate is insane...think back to just one month ago...haha!

 

 

It surreal... that is for sure.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sunny day after sunny day and hot as f.ck is not regular life around here either!!

[jakeinthevalley]

Had to go scrape the snow off the dish.

Fresh snow at the park? Thinking about heading up tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

Had to go scrape the snow off the dish. 

 

 

I did the same thing earlier.   1 inch of heavy, wet snow caused signal loss... but never had an issue when we had 32 inches of dry, powdery snow in one night last week.  

 

My son usually goes up on a ladder but I am not that brave in the dark with a snow covered ground.   I duct taped a light bulb changer and a hose extension and taped a rag on the end and was able to reach it from the ground.  

[TT-SEA]

Sunny day after sunny day and hot as f.ck is not regular life around here either!!

 

 

And neither is 50+ inches of snow in one month.   But it happens!   

 

Its happened before and it will happen again.   

 

Just because people don't want more cold and snow does not mean they want wildfires and 95-degree heat all summer either.   Why is it always one extreme or the other with you?  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00Z UKMET sticking to its buns on landfall along the Southern Oregon Coast Monday morning.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

To much snow lol. Pussys.

 

 

Says the man making thousands and thousands of dollars every time it snows.   

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Is that another overrunning event on Monday?  I didn't really pay attention the past week because of so many things going on in my life.  Geez Louise!  I could use another snow day.  Hehe.

[FroYoBro]

The WRF-GFS looks incredibly snowy for my location next week. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00Z UKMET sticking to its buns on landfall along the Southern Oregon Coast Monday morning.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

12 hours later at Monday 4pm.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Says the man making thousands and thousands of dollars every time it snows.   

It snows so so much around here. Lol

[TT-SEA]

It snows so so much around here. Lol

 

Sometimes it does not snow for long periods of time... and sometimes it comes in ridiculous amounts.   Its the nature of our climate.   

 

People complain when it does not snow at all... and they complain when the snow becomes an ongoing and extended issue with normal life.    Both seem reasonable.  

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the WRF from tomorrow morning at 4 a.m. through Monday at 4 a.m.

 

I am NOT saying its right... just posting the map because its more model data.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Total map has not come out yet... but the WRF shows almost no snow north of Longview on Monday.

 

Northward extent of precip is a common problem for the WRF.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Total snow per the WRF from tomorrow morning at 4 a.m. through Monday at 4 a.m.

 

I am NOT saying its right... just posting the map because its more model data.  

 

 

Going off the 925mb temps this snowfall projection looks like a load of garbage. Is it thinking the snow won't reach the ground through the dry air?

[Esquimalt]

Going off the 925mb temps this snowfall projection looks like a load of garbage. Is it thinking the snow won't reach the ground through the dry air?

I don’t understand, icon, nam and RGEM all believe Sunday mornings event will be primarily to all rain down here. Aren’t temperatures cool enough for snow with this unstable airmass?

[GHweatherChris]

Here you go Chris... just a small sample from the North Bend facebook group today.

 

 

 

 

 

Many people in North Bend are lifelong residents.

 

I like the woman who said aloud "fucck me" when she saw it snowing today. I could post many more pages... its been a common theme this month after the first snowstorm. And not one post from me.

You really do have issues, not looking for an argument here, but D**n dude, I do not live there, nice job reading way too much in to what I said, take a xanax or something... settle the **** down!!

 

We all choose where we live, and then obviously up there most bitchh about it, sounds like a very unhappy situation that was personally selected by most.