2/23 - 2/24 Central Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[GDR]

Des Moines jackzone

[East Dubzz]

Every model has me out of it except the 18z NAM. Way to keep the fight alive, little buddy. Onward we go. Lock it in!

[gosaints]

La Crosse throws out watches.  They tend to issue early for high impact weekend events and it doesnt bother them if they end up missing.  

[BMT]

Wow, 12z GFS is active.  

[Stacsh]

GRR has issued a Watch for Sunday for less than 3" of snow on the backside.  3 DAYS in ADVANCE!! They are taking the winds/potential rap around LEHS seriously and issued it to warn people early.  

[jcwxguy]

Point forecast calling 1-3" here now

 

Iconic icon blasts Lincoln/omaha

[St Paul Storm]

MPX just upped the point here. 1-2” for Friday night and 3-7” for Saturday night. Wonder if they’ll pop a watch. Something tells me no.

[DSM WeatherNut]

WSW issued by DMX

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy wintry mixed precipitation Saturday evening
changing over to all snow Saturday night is possible. Areas of
blowing snow are possible late Saturday night through Sunday.
Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches, locally higher
amounts possible in a narrow band of snow that is expected to
develop. Ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds
could gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Southwest, central and northeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy
blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility to near zero
at times, especially in rural areas. Gusty winds and icing could
bring down tree branches and power lines.

[Stormhunter87]

Wpc is keeping the really heavy stuff to the South. I'm going to guess 3-6 with alot of sleet to start off.

[MNTonka]

MPX just upped the point here. 1-2” for Friday night and 3-7” for Saturday night. Wonder if they’ll pop a watch. Something tells me no.

Our already narrow street is seemingly shrinking by the day. I don't know where the plows would put another 4-9". I think Minneapolis/St. Paul will be implementing some parking restrictions here after this next round, if not sooner. It's been quite some time since I remember them doing that. 

[St Paul Storm]

Our already narrow street is seemingly shrinking by the day. I don't know where the plows would put another 4-9". I think Minneapolis/St. Paul will be implementing some parking restrictions here after this next round, if not sooner. It's been quite some time since I remember them doing that.

 

I hear ya. It’s getting tough to navigate by car in some areas. MNDot had the heavy duty snow removal equip along the interstate earlier. They were throwing snow into the middle of the clovers by the exit ramps.

 

Watch posted just to the south and east of the metro for 6-9”.

[gabel23]

18z crush job at hour 54 for Nebraska. Areas off to the north and east should do really good with this run. Also looks a lot more juiced in the deformation band. 

[Grizzcoat]

18Z GFS actually shows some -0C 850 temps ramping into the system in the rain corridor (a sign?)(( C.IA)   - like it's trying to occlude a bit--  who knows/

[St Paul Storm]

Gosaints you don’t need to chase. You’re looking golden. Camp out in your driveway and drink beer during the bliz.

[jcwxguy]

18z crush job at hour 54 for Nebraska. Areas off to the north and east should do really good with this run. Also looks a lot more juiced in the deformation band.

still not much for Omaha/Lincoln

[gosaints]

Gosaints you don’t need to chase. You’re looking golden. Camp out in your driveway and drink beer during the bliz.

hoping for that option... Only 48 hours of model watching to go

[St Paul Storm]

FV3 now down to 975mb like the Euro.

[jcwxguy]

Gid with watches

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Hastings NE

346 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

 

...Freezing drizzle to arrive tonight into Friday, then a powerful

winter storm hits the area on Saturday through Saturday

evening...

 

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ041-048-049-062>064-074>077-083>087-220600-

/O.NEW.KGID.WS.A.0001.190223T1100Z-190224T0600Z/

Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Nance-Merrick-Polk-

Hall-Hamilton-York-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Harlan-Franklin-

Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-

Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Bellaire, Smith Center,

Kensington, Mankato, Jewell, Ionia, Burr Oak, Codell, Plainville,

Stockton, Osborne, Downs, Beloit, Fullerton, Genoa, Central City,

Stromsburg, Osceola, Shelby, Polk, Grand Island, Aurora, York,

Minden, Hastings, Sutton, Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar, Fairfield,

Geneva, Exeter, Fairmont, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell,

Hildreth, Inavale, Red Cloud, Blue Hill, Rosemont, Bladen,

Bostwick, Superior, Nelson, Hebron, and Deshler

346 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

 

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow

accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to

one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 55

mph.

 

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east

central and south central Nebraska.

 

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy

blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty

winds could bring down tree branches.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant

snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue

to monitor the latest forecasts.

 

&&

 

$$

 

Heinlein

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

FV3 much juicier and bit northwest of the 12Z. Has a much bigger area with 12"+ amounts. Omaha and Lincoln riding the edge.

Regular GFS also much juicier with area and amounts...

[jcwxguy]

GFS zoomed in and fv3

[gosaints]

Parallel gfs left of his. But at this range its a noise difference

[OmahaSnowFan]

12Z GFSFV3 on top and the 18Z on bottom

[OmahaSnowFan]

C'mon OAX, issue the watch already.... every other surrounding office has done it.

[Stormhunter87]

C'mon OAX, issue the watch already.... every other surrounding office has done it.

Wwa and they will wait until tomorrow morning. Maybe a blizzard watch but not for the amount of snow

[jcwxguy]

C'mon OAX, issue the watch already.... every other surrounding office has done it.

done

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

413 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

 

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>068-

078-088>093-220615-

/O.NEW.KOAX.WS.A.0002.190223T1800Z-190225T0000Z/

Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-

Page-Burt-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-

Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-

Richardson-

Including the cities of Onawa, Mapleton, Missouri Valley,

Woodbine, Logan, Dunlap, Harlan, Council Bluffs, Glenwood,

Red Oak, Sidney, Hamburg, Tabor, Farragut, Clarinda, Shenandoah,

Tekamah, Oakland, Lyons, Decatur, Fremont, Blair, David City,

Wahoo, Ashland, Yutan, Omaha, Bellevue, Papillion, La Vista,

Seward, Milford, Lincoln, Plattsmouth, Nebraska City, Crete,

Wilber, Fairbury, Beatrice, Tecumseh, Sterling, Auburn,

Pawnee City, Table Rock, and Falls City

413 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

 

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow

accumulations of 2 to 8 inches, locally heavier, and a light

glaze of ice possible. Wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph may also

produce Blizzard conditions, with near zero visibility.

 

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Nebraska and

southwest and west central Iowa.

 

* WHEN...Heaviest snowfall Saturday afternoon and evening, with

blowing snow possibly lingering into Sunday afternoon.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Area roadways may become hazardous or

impassable. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

Gusty winds may lead to isolated power outages.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant

snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue

to monitor the latest forecasts.

 

&&

 

$$

 

Albright

 

[Stormhunter87]

done

 

Honestly that is surprising. :/

[jaster220]

What is that strange color on my CWA map????  Has to be some kinda SNAFU going on here.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Wwa and they will wait until tomorrow morning. Maybe a blizzard watch but not for the amount of snow

they usually coordinate with surrounding offices so I figured they would issue a watch

[Stormhunter87]

Local met put out his forecast 2-5 from Lincoln up. 5-9 south and east.

[Stormhunter87]

they usually coordinate with surrounding offices so I figured they would issue a watch

Yeah I just don't see that heavy band making it here. Hope I'm wrong but we will see.

[gabel23]

RGEM likes the northwest route too. Very interesting battle we have going on with the models. To anyone who can answer this; you think the snow that we have on the ground will be too crusted by the weekend to also get blown around? 

[westMJim]

GRR has issued a Watch for Sunday for less than 3" of snow on the backside.  3 DAYS in ADVANCE!! They are taking the winds/potential rap around LEHS seriously and issued it to warn people early

Not sure why a Watch for this as this looks to be more wind then anything else. Should be a high wind watch

[East Dubzz]

RGEM likes the northwest route too. Very interesting battle we have going on with the models. To anyone who can answer this; you think the snow that we have on the ground will be too crusted by the weekend to also get blown around?

I would think that would severely limit it, for sure.

[gabel23]

I would think that would severely limit it, for sure.

That's kind of what I figured; if only we could have avoided the warm up before we could have been talking ground blizzard conditions if you missed out on the snow!

[westMJim]

What is that strange color on my CWA map????  Has to be some kinda SNAFU going on here.

 

20190221 GRR headline map.PNG

As I stated before not sure why a Winter Storm Watch as it looks to more of a wind issue and thus should have been a High Wind Watch.

 

• High Wind Warning: Take Action! Sustained, strong winds with even stronger gusts are happening. Seek shelter. If you are driving, keep both hands on the wheels and slow down. NWS offices issue this product based on local criteria.
• High Wind Watch: Be Prepared! Sustained, strong winds are possible. Secure loose outdoor items and adjust plans as necessary so you're not caught outside. NWS offices issue this product based on local criteria.
•  

[erburns18]

Just posted

[clintbeed1993]

Hastings NWS thinks Central Nebraska will literally be split between heavier snow to the west AND to the east.  FANTASTIC.  That's only happened about 5 times this winter already.  Getting really sick of it.

[Bryan1117]

Hastings NWS thinks Central Nebraska will literally be split between heavier snow to the west AND to the east.  FANTASTIC.  That's only happened about 5 times this winter already.  Getting really sick of it.

Still a lot of moving pieces with this thing 48 hours out. No one should get too excited or frustrated at this point... I don't think forecasters will have a good idea on what is going to happen with this system until maybe tomorrow night at the earliest. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

That's kind of what I figured; if only we could have avoided the warm up before we could have been talking ground blizzard conditions if you missed out on the snow!

I think there will be enough new snow plus wind gusts of 50-60mph to blow around a lot snow either way.

[clintbeed1993]

I'm realllly confused what the NWS is looking at here.  A Winter Storm Watch for 1-2 inches of snow and a small amount of icing?  Seems like they're trying to cover their bases with the watch while also downplaying snowfall amounts.  Seems the circle doesn't connect.  In other words, they have absolutely no idea what's gunna happen.