March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Phil]

Sorry. I just wanted to share my happiest weather moment in a decade with you guys. I didn’t think I’d get nuked for that.

 

All good. Love you anyway.

[Requiem]

Sorry. I just wanted to share my happiest weather moment in a decade with you guys. I didn’t think I’d get nuked for that.

 

All good. Love you anyway.

 

I'm glad you got to experience it. The videos I found were pretty intense, lots of hail, snow, and lightning.

[TT-SEA]

Band of light rain formed out here behind initial front... light rain and 51 with a dewpoint of 45 with the sound of frogs out there. Nice to have some rain... and nice to have rain that is not planning to immediately turn to snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hear rain falling outside right now. 00z looked pretty wet overall.

 

Actually nothing crazy. A lot of days with rain, but nothing super significant.

[Tenochtitlan]

Haha. I thought I was tripping on acid when it was happening.

Where exactly do you live again? I see Cabin John but that's close to sea level.

[MossMan]

I hear rain falling outside right now. 00z looked pretty wet overall.

 

Actually nothing crazy. A lot of days with rain, but nothing super significant.

Dry hereall evening after that brief sprinkle earlier.

[Cloud]

Sorry. I just wanted to share my happiest weather moment in a decade with you guys. I didn’t think I’d get nuked for that.

 

All good. Love you anyway.

You don’t need to apologize for anything. Unreal some

are nuking you for it. Keep sharing away!

[Phil]

Where exactly do you live again? I see Cabin John but that's close to sea level.

Yeah just 170ft, but that’s because I’m wedged inside the Potomac River gorge. This area is still west of the Fall Line (which is debatably the border between two climate zones) so the climate here has more of the attributes of areas on the western side (IE: more similar to Dulles than DCA) despite the relatively lower elevation.

 

Only difference is warmer daytime highs and the slightly higher dewpoints due to the water, and perhaps a funnel effect with W/NW winds at times.

[TacomaWaWx]

The rain that came through yesterday wasn’t even enough to completely wet the ground. Definitely not good considering there were a considerable number of brush fires west of the cascades just recently which is very concerning when spring has just started. We need rain before june starts. Either way it’s probably going to be a very significant fire season east and west of the cascades.

[MossMan]

The rain that came through yesterday wasn’t even enough to completely wet the ground. Definitely not good considering there were a considerable number of brush fires west of the cascades just recently which is very concerning when spring has just started. We need rain before june starts. Either way it’s probably going to be a very significant fire season east and west of the cascades.

The RH is back to normal levels for this time of the year which will greatly reduce the fire threat.

[TT-SEA]

The rain that came through yesterday wasn’t even enough to completely wet the ground. Definitely not good considering there were a considerable number of brush fires west of the cascades just recently which is very concerning when spring has just started. We need rain before june starts. Either way it’s probably going to be a very significant fire season east and west of the cascades.

 

You don't know that.    It all depends on our summer weather.   The fires earlier this week were more related to the recent cold period forcing vegetation into deep dormancy followed by an unusually warm and windy period with low humidity.     That is gone now.

 

There are fires every spring in the Midwest and they stop when everything greens up... and everything will be lush green around here in April regardless of how much rain we got in the winter.   We have had Midwest-like weather for the last 2 months.  

 

Early spring fires don't mean anything for August.    The weather in late spring and summer will determine what happens later in the summer.  

[TacomaWaWx]

The RH is back to normal levels for this time of the year which will greatly reduce the fire threat.

Yeah for the time being. But if we have warmer/Drier than normal weather for the next couple months it will certainly be bad. Seems like this is the new normal many trees throughout the region are dying and dried out due to the past few years of warmer conditions

[TacomaWaWx]

You don't know that. It all depends on our summer weather. The fires earlier this week were more related to the recent cold forcing vegetation into deep dormancy followed by an unusually warm and windy period with low humidity. That is gone now.

 

There are fires every spring in the Midwest and they stop when everything greens up... and everything will be lush around here in April regardless of how much rain we got in the winter. We have had Midwest-like weather for t he last 2 months.

 

Early spring fires don't mean anything in August. The weather in late spring and summer will determine what happens later in the summer.

You’re right I don’t know but it won’t be great if it’s drier and warmer from now through the summer. That’s what I’m trying to say. Overall dry and warmer than normal conditions are not good and we need it to rain or it will make it worse thats what I mean. Yea fires in March doesn’t mean for sure there will be bad fires but it’s not a good sign. If we don’t get significant rain in the next couple months it will be a problem.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like we ended up with .15 overnight here with the band of rain that formed behind the initial front.

 

Everything looks noticeably greener here this morning... and the sun is peaking out now.

[TT-SEA]

You’re right I don’t know but it won’t be great if it’s drier and warmer from now through the summer. That’s what I’m trying to say. Overall dry and warmer than normal conditions are not good and we need it to rain or it will make it worse thats what I mean. Yea fires in March doesn’t mean for sure there will be bad fires but it’s not a good sign. If we don’t get significant rain in the next couple months it will be a problem.

 

That would be true regardless of what is happening in the middle of March.   

 

Even if it was very wet right now... if there is very little rain from now until fall then we would likely have a bad fire season.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we ended up with .15 overnight here with the band of rain that formed behind the initial front.

 

Everything looks noticeably greener here this morning... and the sun is peaking out now.

 

Since emerging Monday or Tuesday my front lawn first greened up considerably and is no growing at a rapid pace. I will probably have to mow by the end of next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 06z was actually pretty dry. A wet day on Monday and then just scattered showers at times for the next week with some dry days. Probably some nice days, especially mornings and likely some frosts.

[TT-SEA]

Since emerging Monday or Tuesday my front lawn first greened up considerably and is no growing at a rapid pace. I will probably have to mow by the end of next week.

 

 

I was just walking around the yard now checking out everything and thinking that I might be mowing by next weekend... which is pretty amazing considering what it looked like a couple weeks ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was just walking around the yard now checking out everything and thinking that I might be mowing by next weekend... which is pretty amazing considering what it looked like a couple weeks ago.

 

I've usually mowed once or twice by now so its not surprising. Plus we just had 3-4 days in the 60s up here which really gets it going. Everything is 2-3 weeks behind even after the warm weather. It makes sense your area isn't as behind as the cold/snow has been focused further south since about February 11th.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with 0.39" of rain yesterday. 51/35. 

 

Currently 44 after a low of 39. Skies are mostly clear.

[TT-SEA]

I've usually mowed once or twice by now so its not surprising. Plus we just had 3-4 days in the 60s up here which really gets it going. Everything is 2-3 weeks behind even after the warm weather. It makes sense your area isn't as behind as the cold/snow has been focused further south since about February 11th.

 

 

I usually mow for the first time in late March or early April.... so it seems like everything is almost back on track now.     Of course we had a few days in the 70s up here which really helped.     The trees in North Bend look like they are just about ready to start leafing out soon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

People are really overreacting to the March fires... They mean nothing in terms of our upcoming fire season and were caused by a very unique set of conditions. I could drop napalm on my backyard today and it wouldn't ignite.

[Jesse]

Yeah for the time being. But if we have warmer/Drier than normal weather for the next couple months it will certainly be bad. Seems like this is the new normal many trees throughout the region are dying and dried out due to the past few years of warmer conditions

Yeah it’s really gotten out of hand.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like Portland is on track for a top 5 driest March. Hope we get a good amount of rain before June.

[Jesse]

People are really overreacting to the March fires... They mean nothing in terms of our upcoming fire season and were caused by a very unique set of conditions. I could drop napalm on my backyard today and it wouldn't ignite.

Yes obviously the March fires have no bearing on the fire season later. But warm and dry the next few months would.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Portland is on track for a top 5 driest March. Hope we get a good amount of rain before June.

 

About 1.95" of precip here this month. Over half of it fell as snow. A lot of snow melt this past week and half though and still snow melting in the shade so its pretty damp and the ground is pretty soft. But about 5" below normal on precip this month so far. February was pretty wet though. 

 

February in Central Oregon was one of the wettest on record.

[TacomaWaWx]

People are really overreacting to the March fires... They mean nothing in terms of our upcoming fire season and were caused by a very unique set of conditions. I could drop napalm on my backyard today and it wouldn't ignite.

I understand that just because there are fires in March that it doesn’t mean it will be bad in the summer. What I meant is if we don’t get a lot of rain this spring it just isn’t a good sign is all.

[TT-SEA]

Most everyone here gets what you are trying to say, and you are correct. This sort of talk will always trigger a few people, though.

 

 

You know that the weather for the rest of spring and into June will determine what happens later in the summer... not the conditions in March before everything has even woken up fully from dormancy yet.

 

And even if May and June are dry... a cooler and wetter than normal July and August would mitigate the fire risk as well.

 

The fires this past week are not an indication at all about what will happen over the summer.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes obviously the March fires have no bearing on the fire season later. But warm and dry the next few months would.

 

We'll have to see how it plays out. I was looking at March 2017 yesterday and that was an extremely wet month. Over 17" of rain up here. And that obviously had no bearing on the fire season either. 

[Jesse]

You know that the weather for the rest of spring and into June will determine what happens later in the summer... not the conditions in March before everything has even woken up fully from dormancy yet.

 

And even if May and June are dry... a cooler and wetter than normal July and August would mitigate the fire risk as well.

 

The fires this past week are not an indication at all about what will happen over the summer.

 

Really all we need is a week or two of rain a year to avoid a bad fire season! Not a cumulative procsss or anything. What a bunch of bull.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we get a wet/cool June we will be golden.

[TT-SEA]

We'll have to see how it plays out. I was looking at March 2017 yesterday and that was an extremely wet month. Over 17" of rain up here. And that obviously had no bearing on the fire season either.

Exactly.

 

And last April was very wet and it was still very smoky later in the summer.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah it’s really gotten out of hand.

Yeah you can tell by looking around the forests in the region that things have been hotter and drier than what they normally are the past few years. That’s why I’m worried that we aren’t going to get enough rain. We don’t know what will happen this spring I just hope it’s good news and not bad. Right now it’s more likely to be drier and warmer than normal this spring but the NWS climate map was wrong about February so we just gotta wait and hope for the best.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I bet Jim is salivating at the last few GFS runs. 

[Kayla]

You know that the weather for the rest of spring and into June will determine what happens later in the summer... not the conditions in March before everything has even woken up fully from dormancy yet.

 

And even if May and June are dry... a cooler and wetter than normal July and August would mitigate the fire risk as well.

 

The fires this past week are not an indication at all about what will happen over the summer.     

 

The point is, it's dry right now and the outlook for the next couple months does not favor above average precipitation for the PNW.

 

It's understandable why some people might be worried about a bad fire season based on those two factors.

[Kayla]

12z GFS says winter is not over...

[Jesse]

We'll have to see how it plays out. I was looking at March 2017 yesterday and that was an extremely wet month. Over 17" of rain up here. And that obviously had no bearing on the fire season either.

 

I’m really regretting getting into this discussion now. Impacts on fire season aside, it would be nice to get closer to average/above average precip going forward if not just to avoid slipping back into drought conditions.

[TT-SEA]

The point is, it's dry right now and the outlook for the next couple months does not favor above average precipitation for the PNW.

 

It's understandable why some people might be worried about a bad fire season based on those two factors.

The fact that it is dry in March historically means wetter weather is ahead.

 

And even it was as wet as possible right now... it could still be a bad summer for fires. Last spring it was about as wet as it could be in the middle of April and it meant nothing later in the summer.

 

And in 2016... it was very dry and warm in the spring and it was not a bad fire season.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m really regretting getting into this discussion now. Impacts on fire season aside, it would be nice to get closer to average/above average precip going forward if not just to avoid slipping back into drought conditions.

 

I have the same concerns. I just am not ready to hit the panic button yet. I had hoped March would have turned out wetter. ,However, when I looked at past years with extended cold in late February and early March, many if not most of them had a period of record/near record warmth a couple weeks later. 

[Jesse]

If we get a wet/cool June we will be golden.

So you think that we could be extremely warm and dry the entire year then magically have a cool and wet June to reset everything and save us from bad drought/fire conditions? It’s definitely not that linear. Soil moisture, snowpack, moisture content of standing vegetation, etc all play a role and many of those factors are determined by conditions throughout the year, not just immediately before summer.