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2019 Spring/Summer Discussion


Tom
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With meteorological Winter in the rear view mirror, met Spring has arrived but nature has other plans for our Sub Forum as we progress through #delayed Spring.  When will this relentless winter pattern break???  Who will see our first Severe Wx outbreak???  Any signs of warmth on the horizon???  Using the LRC as long range guidance, one can expect to see an active pattern across the central CONUS this Spring and Summer with unusually strong troughs/systems to swing through the central states.

 

In my opinion, I don't foresee a conducive pattern for a long duration period of Spring-like conditions during the month of March.  As we head into April, the pattern will finally begin to show signs of real Spring, esp during the 2nd half of April.  I do expect a very cold open to April with more late season snows, however, unlike last April, even though the month opens cold, it will break and I'm expecting the ridge to begin to pop across the eastern part of the Sub as the seasonal weakening of the jet and 500mb pattern begins to change.  This is when Severe Wx will likely begin to kick into high gear.

 

Let's discuss...

 

Taking a look at the recent trends off the CFSv2 500mb maps, this is the type of pattern that keeps troughs pounding the SW states which ideally occurs during the Spring months.  I expect an unusually active Spring across this region as the cyclical pattern should continue to keep the storm track alive and well. 

 

With warm building across the south and a warm GOM, look out for a big severe wx month in April across the central/southern Plains.  There will be enough cold air lurking out of the north to be able to provide that "ignition" and spark Severe Wx.  

 

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_1.png

 

 

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_namer_1.png

 

 

 

Spring showers to bring May Flowers???  I'm expecting a fast start to Summer across much of our Sub similar to last year even though May started off on a slow start.  I don't see that happening this year and I expect an overall warm start to the month generally speaking.  I'm worried about dryness across the GL's region and parts of the MW later in the Spring months and into the early part of Summer before it turns cool/wet during the middle part of Summer.  Most of the Plains states will be stuck in a cool/wet pattern throughout Spring/Summer as I don't expect to see any long duration heat waves this season with the exception of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest...and potentially into the GL's early on.

 

Something that I've been pondering on is the idea of seeing unusually strong troughs mid/late Summer.  We have seen several episodes of the Polar Vortex since the LRC began to cycle way back in Oct/Nov and I'm convinced we will see unusually strong troughs later in the Summer.  With that in mind, the month of July stands out to me when we could see some odd looking troughs hitting our Sub. For several reasons, one of which, is the fact that we are heading into a deep Solar Min and that will aid in this development during the Summer.  Will we see a repeat of July '14???  Polar Vortex talk in the Summer???  That would be quite fascinating.  

 

 

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I liked the lack of talk on drought. The Southern Plains have had more than their share of it.

We expect heat and dry spells, but typically Texas gets a period ( even 2 ) of rain, usually in June and July. It serves to get us past the Aug/Sept. dry we often get.

Frankly, last summer just about did me in. The heat and drought was unbearable.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The latest Euro Seasonal has the look of what I'm expecting to evolve this Spring/Summer.  The ridge tries to blossom in the East in April while the Plains states are socked in a BN temp regime.  By the time May comes around, I expect the North American Vortex to be tucked near Greenland/Hudson Bay/NE Canada (similar to last year...which, in my personal opinion is a signal the shift in Arctic wx patterns is transpiring) that allows a fast start to summer all across the Upper MW/GL's/MW region.  Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains will continue to be wet/cool all throughout the Spring/Summer months.

Don't get me wrong, there will be episodes of heat across the heartland but nothing sustained for any long periods this year.

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Is nature saying something???  North American Snow Cover index at decadal highs for so late in the season.  While the rest of the Northern Hemisphere begins to see the seasonal melt-off, North America seeks to go against climo.

 

 

 

 

multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_g

 

 

 

Eurasia...

 

multisensor_4km_ea_snow_extent_by_year_g

 

 

 

I don't want to cause any pause to those looking for Spring-like weather, but over the last week of watching the models continue to grow stronger on some clues happening in the Strat which I look for in the longer range all are pointing to some very unusual behavior.  As a result, the trends off the CFSv2 are slowly starting to see the cool/colder weather hang around as we open up April.  I sure hope we don't see a repeat performance like last April.  If that Vortex stays put across central Canada and the deep trough near the Aleutians stays put, that'll keep the ridging across NW NAMER locked in keeping the flow out of the Arctic.  As advertised, delayed Spring is almost a sure bet to continue into April.

 

 

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Taste of Spring coming next week and cannot wait for it as temps soar into the 60s and I would not be surprise if temps get into the 70s, especially if enough sun is available. It will be brief, but I'll take it. Woohooooo!!!

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Taste of Spring coming next week and cannot wait for it as temps soar into the 60s and I would not be surprise if temps get into the 70s, especially if enough sun is available. It will be brief, but I'll take it. Woohooooo!!!

 

This next storm will eviscerate snow pack outside of the Mountains and the far north, paving the way for more seasonable temps and gradual warming after.  Spring is coming.  Won't be like last year.   

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This next storm will eviscerate snow pack outside of the Mountains and the far north, paving the way for more seasonable temps and gradual warming after.  Spring is coming.  Won't be like last year.   

Yes, it is. Cannot wait for severe weather as well.

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eviscerate 30 inch snow packs??

 

Where outside of the "far north" is there 30 inch snow packs?  Remember we are all from different areas in the Midwest/plains here.  Far north to me is UP of MI, Minnesota, Dakotas, NWI.  

 

And 60's with rain will melt that quick.  

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Lake Superior has about 94% ice overage and while LM isn’t nearly as bad, the waters will take a while to warm up. The way the pattern is heading over the next few weeks, you can bet your going to see a flow off the lake which ain’t a warm one. I still believe it won’t be till mid and late April the GL’s region sees more consistent Spring warmth. 40’s in late March and early April is not Spring like in my book.

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Where outside of the "far north" is there 30 inch snow packs? Remember we are all from different areas in the Midwest/plains here. Far north to me is UP of MI, Minnesota, Dakotas, NWI.

 

And 60's with rain will melt that quick.

I got ya. My backyard has 30 inches. Extreme se mn. We are looking at 40 degrees if we are lucky. We won't touch 50 much less 60
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Yes, it is. Cannot wait for severe weather as well.

Just came in from cutting back an old rose bush. Began to sprinkle and it got chilly. 51*.

We have some mild severe storms out west coming this way and about 3 days of rain ahead.

Springs careening around the corner down here !

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2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Just came in from cutting back an old rose bush. Began to sprinkle and it got chilly. 51*.

We have some mild severe storms out west coming this way and about 3 days of rain ahead.

Springs careening around the corner down here !

Awesome....I simply cannot wait for severe weather, especially late March and thereafter.

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The rain has been lurking out west all afternoon. I suppose it will finally drift east.

We should see about 2" out of this.

When I think of the amount of rain we've received since Ja. Of 2018 I'm gob smacked.

With all the moisture in the center of the country all we need is lingering deep cold to see that ice age.

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2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The rain has been lurking out west all afternoon. I suppose it will finally drift east.

We should see about 2" out of this.

When I think of the amount of rain we've received since Ja. Of 2018 I'm gob smacked.

With all the moisture in the center of the country all we need is lingering deep cold to see that ice age.

Thats a lot of moisture, wow. Hopefully, flooding was not an issue for you guys there.

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Hard to say. If it comes over 3 days we won't.

 

But good grief we've had a lot of rain since Jan. 2018.

Over 62" last year when normal is about half of that.

Don't tell me that things aren't seriously messed up.

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2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2019_US_FarmersAlmanac_MediaMap_Spring-6

 

I believe that for us here in the GL's. It'd be a continuation of the see-saw pattern we've had all winter. Only makes sense.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I'd buy it here too. The moisture in the air has been high for at east 16 months. Besides, if the faucet dries up in June, we'llbe complaining.

 

Our rain this week continues to lurk just west of us. Now they're saying it will arrive by 6 am and rain 2 days. I think we'll have

But it's still chilly. 51* tonight with increasing humidity.

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2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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If your looking for a fast start to Summer, the latest JMA seasonal is showcasing just that across the majority of the northern Sub.  While it does show eastern warmth in April, the real deal Summer time warmth/heat may be brewing up in May/June.  The 500mb pattern its suggesting across the GL's/Dakotas region is an ideal "heat" machine.  Not only that, but in recent years when you place the Vortex near Greenland during this time of year I've noticed this is conducive to produce warmth underneath as the jet is weakening.  The wet signal showing up across the central Plains throughout the remainder of the Spring is continuing as are some of the other LR climate models.

 

April temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201903.D0700_gl2.png

 

 

May temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201903.D0700_gl2.png

 

June...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201903.D0700_gl2.png

 

 

 

In other news, I've noticed the CFSv2 is suggesting a strong El Nino to be brewing up during the Summer and the JMA has dramatically shifted towards this look as well.  Let' see if this is a trend or typical "Spring Shoulder" model mayhem.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201903.D0700_gls.png

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Polar Vortex talk in the Summer???  That would be quite fascinating.  

 

I remember camping in the Northwoods with a newborn and a couple toddlers in Aug 2007. Drying clothes in town after another round of rain I hear on the news of a record low max temp for the month. That was a cold wet week. I hope you're wrong about PV talk this summer!

            High  Low

18 aug  68.0 39.9

19 aug 62.1 43.0

20 aug  64.0 55.0

21 aug 62.1 57.9

22 aug 64.9 59.0

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W the kind of temps coming next week (50s), looks like they have a staying power. Spring will make its presence nice and early this year.

 

2nd half of March is traditionally "spring" not winter. This is nothing unusual if it stays above 40F. I was kinda hoping we'd Morch like 2012 tbh

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2nd half of March is traditionally "spring" not winter. This is nothing unusual if it stays above 40F. I was kinda hoping we'd Morch like 2012 tbh

 

Transitional months have such a widespread variance in temps, that average is a bit skewed.  It could be 70 or 20 and the average is 45.  I'll take 50 degrees.  Been a lot of  March/Aprils around here recently with 30's.  

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2nd half of March is traditionally "spring" not winter. This is nothing unusual if it stays above 40F. I was kinda hoping we'd Morch like 2012 tbh

Relax amigo....I know its Spring. I was just implying that it will feel good outside in terms of being above average (50s) and not mid 40s, which is closer to average.

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Relax amigo....I know its Spring. I was just implying that it will feel good outside in terms of being above average (50s) and not mid 40s, which is closer to average.

 

Haha. I put spring in quotation marks because often (as Stacsh noted) the first month (mid-March to mid-April) can act like both seasons, tho the nod goes to above freezing highs and rain vs snow.  Anyways, it's only mid-50's right now so this big spring-like torch is no better than my upper 50's in Jan or Feb. Was really hopeful for truly warm temps, lol. Tom will come along next with some more dismal news on how that ain't happening anytime soon  :rolleyes:

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Haha. I put spring in quotation marks because often (as Stacsh noted) the first month (mid-March to mid-April) can act like both seasons, tho the nod goes to above freezing highs and rain vs snow. Anyways, it's only mid-50's right now so this big spring-like torch is no better than my upper 50's in Jan or Feb. Was really hopeful for truly warm temps, lol. Tom will come along next with some more dismal news on how that ain't happening anytime soon :rolleyes:

I’m thinking once we get into the 2nd week of April things turn around. Until then, typical yo-yo pattern but predominantly cool to seasonal throughout the rest of March, esp near the GL’s/MW.

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Feel a little guilty about it after reading what the Nebraska peeps are dealing with but dang it feels great outside! Peaks of sun, stiff south wind and temp near 50! Last week Thursday I was snowmobiling with temps around zero.

 

 

 

 

IMG_20190314_130947_176.jpg

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Haha. I put spring in quotation marks because often (as Stacsh noted) the first month (mid-March to mid-April) can act like both seasons, tho the nod goes to above freezing highs and rain vs snow.  Anyways, it's only mid-50's right now so this big spring-like torch is no better than my upper 50's in Jan or Feb. Was really hopeful for truly warm temps, lol. Tom will come along next with some more dismal news on how that ain't happening anytime soon  :rolleyes:

If April can score nicely right into June, then, I am a happy camper. I would like to see a Spring, not go from Winter to Summer like other years. :)

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If April can score nicely right into June, then, I am a happy camper. I would like to see a Spring, not go from Winter to Summer like other years. :)

 

Same. Was telling my wife I don't want immediate 80's. This evening's 62F and TS was spring enough for now. At least you knew it wasn't winter like a week ago. Two years ago April was warmest on record, last year it was May. Maybe we can even things out this AMJ?

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The JAMSTEC model is indicating a very warm/wet remainder of Spring...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2019.1mar2019.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2019.1mar2019.gif

 

 

 

Interestingly, for the 3rd run in a row, it's the only model holding onto the idea of ENSO neutral conditions by late Summer..

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1mar2019.gif

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2019.1mar2019.gif

 

 

Overall, it's advertising a warmer than avg summer except for a small blip in the central Plains where it will be wet.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2019.1mar2019.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2019.1mar2019.gif

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Looks quite typical for Texas.

 

Would anyone like to weigh in on whether it will be average or above average heat ?

 

We would all like to see a summer that doesn't blister us for a month.

Thanks.

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2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Same. Was telling my wife I don't want immediate 80's. This evening's 62F and TS was spring enough for now. At least you knew it wasn't winter like a week ago. Two years ago April was warmest on record, last year it was May. Maybe we can even things out this AMJ?

I sure hope so....its been awhile since we had a normal Spring season.

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Looks quite typical for Texas.

 

Would anyone like to weigh in on whether it will be average or above average heat ?

 

We would all like to see a summer that doesn't blister us for a month.

Thanks.

My guess would be AA, rather than BA because, typically, this far south in the summer, it usually tends to be hot n very humid. Probability standards stand much higher. I.E., if lets say, we were discussing places such as MN or IA, then, for these locales, we can say that there is a possibility that BA temps could be a factor due to being much further north.

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Tom Said:

 

Overall, it's advertising a warmer than avg summer except for a small blip in the central Plains where it will be wet.

 

Looking closely, it looks like SMI is also a little island of blue among a virtual sea of red. Glad it's the just the JAMSTEC

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My guess would be AA, rather than BA because, typically, this far south in the summer, it usually tends to be hot n very humid. Probability standards stand much higher. I.E., if lets say, we were discussing places such as MN or IA, then, for these locales, we can say that there is a possibility that BA temps could be a factor due to being much further north.

I think we can all handle an average summer. The month in 2018 of 100+ was rough. I mean, we hit 110*!

We typically get a few days, then back below 100*.

It was just not acceptable as far as I'm concerned last summer.

Some rain somewhere mid summer is good and temps

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2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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If your looking for a fast start to Summer, the latest JMA seasonal is showcasing just that across the majority of the northern Sub. While it does show eastern warmth in April, the real deal Summer time warmth/heat may be brewing up in May/June. The 500mb pattern its suggesting across the GL's/Dakotas region is an ideal "heat" machine. Not only that, but in recent years when you place the Vortex near Greenland during this time of year I've noticed this is conducive to produce warmth underneath as the jet is weakening. The wet signal showing up across the central Plains throughout the remainder of the Spring is continuing as are some of the other LR climate models.

 

April temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201903.D0700_gl2.png

 

 

May temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201903.D0700_gl2.png

 

June...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201903.D0700_gl2.png

 

 

 

In other news, I've noticed the CFSv2 is suggesting a strong El Nino to be brewing up during the Summer and the JMA has dramatically shifted towards this look as well. Let' see if this is a trend or typical "Spring Shoulder" model mayhem.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201903.D0700_gls.png

That would be great to have El Niño during summer as that bodes well for above average rainfall & a lesser chance of drought which would be welcomed by farmers and anyone that likes good growing conditions, including myself.
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That's a trade off for your nice mild winters.

Usually. This one was damp and the chill went through you.

I normally love winter here. The air is clear, skies often bright blue, and the ground is golden punctuated by dark green Live Oaks.

 

Our summers tend to be oppressive from July to mid September. I grew up without an air conditioner.

I don't know how my parents did it ! My hat's off.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I think we can all handle an average summer. The month in 2018 of 100+ was rough. I mean, we hit 110*!

We typically get a few days, then back below 100*.

It was just not acceptable as far as I'm concerned last summer.

Some rain somewhere mid summer is good and temps

Here IMBY, anything > than 85F in the Summer gets to be uncomfortable.

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I think we can all handle an average summer. The month in 2018 of 100+ was rough. I mean, we hit 110*!

We typically get a few days, then back below 100*.

It was just not acceptable as far as I'm concerned last summer.

Some rain somewhere mid summer is good and temps

After last Summer's relentless heat and humidity here, I'll gladly take an average Summer. That means 80s highs and 60s lows. Yes please.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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FWIW, here is the Euro's Summer temp forecast which looks quite similar to the JAMSTEC...big blob of BN anomalies centered across the Plains.

How's precip looking? Mild and wet is my kinda Summer.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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FWIW, here is the Euro's Summer temp forecast which looks quite similar to the JAMSTEC...big blob of BN anomalies centered across the Plains.

 

D12gmFAUcAA_Oep.jpg

 

Looking good for the Lakes region. Beach-n-boat temps are always welcome in my book. 2013/14/15 trifecta of cold summers will not soon be forgotten.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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