4/10 - 4/12 Plains/Upper Midwest Powerhouse Blizzard

[Madtown]

blizzard here...grass is white and starting to stick on the driveway!

[gosaints]

Still pounding grass completely covered.  Weather is goofy

[gosaints]

Temp has dropped to 30

[Stormy]

Current temps across Iowa & the Midwest. Summer like in Mo. & Ks!

[Hawkeye]

Euro upped MSP snow precip from 0.70"(00z) to 1.20"(12z).

[jcwxguy]

Dropped a good 10 degrees here last hour

[james1976]

36 and getting a lot windier

[St Paul Storm]

17z HRRR dropping 14” on the metro and still snowing after hr 18. RAP with a 12” spot east metro. This is getting ridiculous.

[gosaints]

The redevelopment of the bands through the overnight is going to be quite interesting to see

[OmahaSnowFan]

Dropped a good 10 degrees here last hour

I checked my home weather station and it went from 59.5 at 120p to 53.4 at 200p. It's leveled out now and is back up to 54.5. Wonder what caused the temporary drop.... One of the benefits of having a weather station with online history I can look at, is to see all the little changes in temperatures, humidity, etc that one wouldn't notice or be aware of being inside at work, sleeping etc. During the winter, it was cool to see jumps up in temperatures in the middle of the night, and then go down to the wind graph and see that occurred right when the wind picked up for a period of time and mixed the air. Yep, I'm a weather nerd

[jcwxguy]

I checked my home weather station and it went from 59.5 at 120p to 53.4 at 200p. It's leveled out now and is back up to 54.5. Wonder what caused the temporary drop.... One of the benefits of having a weather station with online history I can look at, is to see all the little changes in temperatures, humidity, etc that one wouldn't notice or be aware of being inside at work, sleeping etc. During the winter, it was cool to see jumps up in temperatures in the middle of the night, and then go down to the wind graph and see that occurred right when the wind picked up for a period of time and mixed the air. Yep, I'm a weather nerd

wind shifted from due east to Northeast here

[OmahaSnowFan]

wind shifted from due east to Northeast here

Unfortunately my anemometer isn't high enough in my backyard to always get a true reading of wind speed and direction to catch that. Thanks for the info

[OmahaSnowFan]

HRRR is consistently bringing a nice cell through Omaha between 10-11p tonight. Will be interesting to see if that has any big hail with it. Might have to try out the new trigger I bought over the winter.

[St Paul Storm]

rippin pretty good now.  That band is going to sit for a while too. Temp down to 30. 

[gosaints]

The 

 

rippin pretty good now.  That band is going to sit for a while too. Temp down to 30. 

The band the NAM redevelops tonight near the Ia MN border has the potential to bury the metro

[Stormgeek]

Very intense swirling snow just started here in the north metro. Sticking to everything. Walking out in it to my car was not exactly a pleasant experience; absolute plaster and concrete falling from the sky.

[gosaints]

Both NAM with over 1.75 inches qpf remaining with temps under freezing....

[St Paul Storm]

Both NAM with over 1.75 inches qpf remaining with temps under freezing....

 

yikes. This is turning out to be a good one after all. 

 

About 1" down here, maybe a bit more. 

[gosaints]

yikes. This is turning out to be a good one after all.

 

About 1" down here, maybe a bit more.

it won't be much snow here but lots of sleet and zr

[CentralNebWeather]

Was 59 degrees at noon here, right now at 3:30 PM it is 41 degrees with a sustained wind at 30 MPH out of the north.  Waiting for the action later tonight and tomorrow.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

Eppley airport here had a 48 mph wind gust last hour

[Stormgeek]

it won't be much snow here but lots of sleet and zr

hmmmm, I am quite curious to see how long we can stay with snow as the main precip here on the northern side of the cities.

[St Paul Storm]

hmmmm, I am quite curious to see how long we can stay with snow as the main precip here on the northern side of the cities.

  

We're going to stay snow all night, into tomorrow. You're golden up there.  

[james1976]

Ice Storm Warning SW MN

[St Paul Storm]

I guess the question now is.....will we meet blizzard criteria in the metro.  Gusts up to 45mph expected tonight with the heavy band that is expected to develop. I'm not even going to make a guess as I'm 0 for 5 so far with my storm predictions. 

[Stormhunter87]

Suns out again might be enough to fire some storms.

[St Paul Storm]

4” down with the first band according to an observer about 4 mi south of me. Still snowing.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm home from work so I can now comment more deeply on the severe threat here.

 

What works in our favor: Simulated VIL values look good for some hail here (barf). PWATs in the 1.25" range mean we SHOULD see rain. MUCAPE looks to be in the 1400 J/kg range which means we could see some stronger storms. Lift looks to be good too which is what I believe brings us our hail threat.

 

What works against us: Literally every other layer besides the MUCAPE layer is bad. Basically no sfc or MLCAPE up here. Also no shear. DP looks okay at the surface but looks to possibly split apart on HRRR/RAP @ the 850mb area which brings capping concerns. 

 

My take on this is I think this is overhyped by SPC, MAYBE a slight risk at best, the enhanced risk should be to the South or West of here. I think we walk out this with either strong or marginally severe storms in this area.

 

3km NAM sounding:

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

My understanding in these type of setups(elevated hail producers), is the MUCAPE is the CAPE that the storms would be using anyway. The storms are going to be way above the surface or near surface layer, so you don't need surface based CAPE. From the sounding can see the storms should form at just above 850mb. The MUCAPE is showing a LFC of 1184 which is at the top of the stable layer, so any storm should use that CAPE. As far as shear goes, especially when it's an elevated storms/CAPE combo, you really want to look at the effective inflow layer shear number, and that is still near 30 kts, which is decent. Would be nice if it was closer to 40 or above, but still not horrible.

 

I'm home from work so I can now comment more deeply on the severe threat here.

 

What works in our favor: Simulated VIL values look good for some hail here (barf). PWATs in the 1.25" range mean we SHOULD see rain. MUCAPE looks to be in the 1400 J/kg range which means we could see some stronger storms. Lift looks to be good too which is what I believe brings us our hail threat.

 

What works against us: Literally every other layer besides the MUCAPE layer is bad. Basically no sfc or MLCAPE up here. Also no shear. DP looks okay at the surface but looks to possibly split apart on HRRR/RAP @ the 850mb area which brings capping concerns. 

 

My take on this is I think this is overhyped by SPC, MAYBE a slight risk at best, the enhanced risk should be to the South or West of here. I think we walk out this with either strong or marginally severe storms in this area.

 

3km NAM sounding:

 

[Stormhunter87]

Temps are starting to drop and sun is gone again.

[gosaints]

4” down with the first band according to an observer about 4 mi south of me. Still snowing.

4 inches here as well. Doubt we get much more snow but am excited to see what develops after dark

[OmahaSnowFan]

Severe tstorm watch issued until 1am

[CentralNebWeather]

I am now in a severe thunderstorm watch at the same time as being in a blizzard warning. Wild stuff for sure.

[Minny_Weather]

 

 

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

Southwest Iowa

Northern Kansas

South-central and Eastern Nebraska

 

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 635 PM

until 100 AM CDT.

 

* Primary threats include...

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5

inches in diameter likely

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

A tornado or two possible

 

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to continue to intensify early this

evening initially across north-central Kansas, and a bit later into

northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska. These storms could become

near-surface-based, such that a tornado and/or damaging winds cannot

be ruled out near the surface front. However, large hail will be the

most common hazard as storms otherwise expand northeastward into

south-central/eastern Nebraska through late evening.

 

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70

statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north of Hill

City KS to 20 miles south southeast of Omaha NE. For a complete

depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update

(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

[Meichel]

Drove in and out of the northern edge of the snow band from St Paul MN to Oshkosh WI. Had a short period of mixed precip around Osseo for 30 minutes or so. Coming down pretty good here in Oshkosh, ground almost covered. Wind is ridiculous!

[Bryan1117]

My understanding in these type of setups(elevated hail producers), is the MUCAPE is the CAPE that the storms would be using anyway. The storms are going to be way above the surface or near surface layer, so you don't need surface based CAPE. From the sounding can see the storms should form at just above 850mb. The MUCAPE is showing a LFC of 1184 which is at the top of the stable layer, so any storm should use that CAPE. As far as shear goes, especially when it's an elevated storms/CAPE combo, you really want to look at the effective inflow layer shear number, and that is still near 30 kts, which is decent. Would be nice if it was closer to 40 or above, but still not horrible.

This reminds me of a setup from almost exactly 6 years ago (April 9th, 2013) when a severe and damaging thunderstorm/hailstorm hit my neighborhood and a large portion of West Omaha. Severe storms hit with golf ball plus sized hail when the air temp was around 38 - 40 degrees.

 

That storm damaged our roof and gutters so badly we needed everything replaced that summer which was a giant pain... I am personally hoping we do not see anything like that around here tonight.

[OmahaSnowFan]

This reminds me of a setup from almost exactly 6 years ago (April 9th, 2013) when a severe and damaging thunderstorm/hailstorm hit my neighborhood and a large portion of West Omaha. Severe storms hit with golf ball plus sized hail when the air temp was around 38 - 40 degrees.

 

That storm damaged our roof and gutters so badly we needed everything replaced that summer which was a giant pain... I am personally hoping we do not see anything like that around here tonight.

I was just going to post about that storm. I "only" had ping pong ball sized hail, but I believe there were some reports of up to baseball sized hail in town as well. Definitely remember it for how cold it was outside!

[Cfweather]

I was just going to post about that storm. I "only" had ping pong ball sized hail, but I believe there were some reports of up to baseball sized hail in town as well. Definitely remember it for how cold it was outside!

We had an April storm take out our roof and gutters about 5 or 6 years ago too. And an early May storm take out our roof and siding about 3 years ago. Yep- my neighborhood is unlucky.

[Stormhunter87]

This reminds me of a setup from almost exactly 6 years ago (April 9th, 2013) when a severe and damaging thunderstorm/hailstorm hit my neighborhood and a large portion of West Omaha. Severe storms hit with golf ball plus sized hail when the air temp was around 38 - 40 degrees.

 

That storm damaged our roof and gutters so badly we needed everything replaced that summer which was a giant pain... I am personally hoping we do not see anything like that around here tonight.

Yeah let's not do that. I don't have a garage for the cars.

[Minny_Weather]

 

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska

821 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

 

The National Weather Service in Omaha has issued a

 

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

Southern Lancaster County in southeastern Nebraska...

Western Johnson County in southeastern Nebraska...

Jefferson County in southeastern Nebraska...

Southwestern Otoe County in southeastern Nebraska...

Southern Saline County in southeastern Nebraska...

Gage County in southeastern Nebraska...

 

* Until 915 PM CDT.

 

* At 821 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line

extending from 7 miles west of Blue Springs to near Haddam, moving

northeast at 40 mph.

 

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

 

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail

damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect

wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

 

* Locations impacted include...

Southern Lincoln, Beatrice, Fairbury, Wilber, Hickman, Wymore,

Bennet, Firth, Palmyra, De Witt, Cortland, Sterling, Plymouth, Blue

Springs, Odell, Diller, Panama, Western, Clatonia and Hallam.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a

building.

 

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to

flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.