May 2019 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

First picture is the coupling over them. Family lives in Norris and Canton. Second and third is the hail and the hail damage to the front of my parents house.

That was quite a storm!

[Stormhunter87]

That was quite a storm!

Oh for sure. You guys have been getting slammed as well. I was following what was happening in Webber Falls. Nuts the Sheriff telling people to mark their arms if they don't evacuate.

[Stormhunter87]

Upgraded to a moderate risk again over the Texas panhandle.

[Tom]

That is one scary and ominous looking twister near Golden City, MO last night...woah...

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Ok Euro, let's not crash the summer time Vortex into the GL's next week...take it easy, would ya???

 

[Stormhunter87]

Ok Euro, let's not crash the summer time Vortex into the GL's next week...take it easy, would ya???

 

Wow that's some cold air.

[East Dubzz]

Rain tomorrow morning is looking less and less impressive on each HRRR run. Wonder if that trend will continue.

[East Dubzz]

What the 06z NAM had for tomorrow morning: 

 

 

 

Now, what the 18z NAM for tomorrow morning:

 

[Money]

SPC mentioning severe weather probs might need to be increased tomorrow for IL/IA etc if the morning convection clears in time

 

Mentioned all severe weather modes including tornadoes

[Niko]

It is gorgeous outside. Temp currently at 79F w windy conditions. RH is at 33%, so, very dry air in place. Not a cloud to be seen.

[Niko]

First picture is the coupling over them. Family lives in Norris and Canton. Second and third is the hail and the hail damage to the front of my parents house.

wow

[Stormhunter87]

SPC mentioning severe weather probs might need to be increased tomorrow for IL/IA etc if the morning convection clears in time

 

Mentioned all severe weather modes including tornadoes

Yuck already having my mom leave early so she doesn't get caught in the storms.

[East Dubzz]

I work in the basement at work, and today is a day where I am torn on whether or not it's a good or bad thing that I am down here.

 

On one hand, I don't get to see how great the weather is and enjoy the look of it. On the other hand, since I don't see it, it doesn't serve as a distraction and make me wish I was outside the whole time.

[Stormhunter87]

wow

Yeah I don't have a good picture of the coupling over my parents. Where they are at in MO is between St. Louis and KC so the radar image is harder to get.

[St Paul Storm]

Ok Euro, let's not crash the summer time Vortex into the GL's next week...take it easy, would ya???

 

I say bring it. I haven’t turned off my furnace yet. Why stop now? If I leave it on into June that will be 9 consecutive months it’s been on.

[Tom]

I say bring it. I haven’t turned off my furnace yet. Why stop now? If I leave it on into June that will be 9 consecutive months it’s been on.

My goodness have you had it bad this year. Holy smokes. I thought last May was nasty during the 1st half but this month has been relentlessly bad up north. Might as well set some new...record? This year could very well be an extremely short growing season.

[Niko]

Absolutely stunning right now outside. Gorgeous Thursday late afternoon w strong breezes and temps in the 70s.

[OKwx2k4]

Oh for sure. You guys have been getting slammed as well. I was following what was happening in Webber Falls. Nuts the Sheriff telling people to mark their arms if they don't evacuate.

Yeah. Isn't that crazy. Their funeral though. He's basically saying that there's zero ways to guarantee that something bad isnt going to happen. Need the rain to stop, but have saw no reason to say it would.

[Tom]

My brother and his family left for the "Lake of the Ozarks" early this morning, towing their boat along with 2 other boating friends with cigarette boats.  On their way through MO they passed up Jefferson City and I saw a lot of damage along the hwy.  The footage coming out from the region is devastating.

[Andie]

Big change from yesterday.

Temps at 85 but humidity is 57%. Not great but better than the 90% yesterday

Dewpoint 71*.

Feels almost human out there.

 

 

The NE Tx Panhandle is dealing with strong storms. Haven't heard anything critical as yet.

Tomorrow will bring us a 30% chance of isolated storms. Could happen, but I won't hold my breath.

I could use a week of dry weather frankly!

[St Paul Storm]

My goodness have you had it bad this year. Holy smokes. I thought last May was nasty during the 1st half but this month has been relentlessly bad up north. Might as well set some new...record? This year could very well be an extremely short growing season.

Here’s a dirty snow pile that still lives at the end of the runway at MSP International. Might be there til July. Lol.

[Stormhunter87]

Got some regular thunderstorms rolling in. Alot of lightning with these. Fingers crossed the baby stays asleep.

[Money]

HRRR looks really good for WI/IL tomorrow with the warm front in play

[Hawkeye]

We should get into some showers and storms late tonight.  Tomorrow evening it'll be a close call for Cedar Rapids.  Storms will fire along a sw-ne line somewhere around here or just southeast.

[East Dubzz]

Going to be a close call on whether or not we get some rain around here in the morning.

 

Based on how this spring has been, my guess is it’ll go north.

 

Sorry, angry Bucks fan here!

[Minny_Weather]

Was just at the Saltdogs game. First time I've ever had to wear cold weather attire for a Saltdogs game. Lasted until the 6th inning when the game got called due to rain in the Saltdogs favor. 3-2 win.

 

Pretty consistent moderate-heavy rain currently, along with fairly constant thunder. Wouldn't be surprised to make it over 2" by sunrise tomorrow. 57.4*F.

[james1976]

Nice MCS moving in

[james1976]

[Minny_Weather]

 

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0281
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1204 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...southwest Iowa....northeast
Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240403Z - 241003Z

Summary...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall will
spread across the outlook area. With hourly totals 1-1.5" possible
and total amounts of 2-4" possible overnight, localized flash
flooding will be possible.

Discussion...Elevated convection continues to become more
widespread across northeast Kansas and into southeast Nebraska and
western Iowa per recent cooling cloud tops seen on GOES-16 IR
imagery. Recent returns from area radars show estimated hourly
rates of 1-1.5 inches with some areas already picking up around 1
inch in the last couple of hours (mesonet observation near
Fairbury NE had 1.06").

The environment will become more favorable for heavy rainfall and
potentially flash flooding through the night. Increasing low-level
jet characterized by 850 mb winds as high as 50 kts will surge
anomalous precipitable water values as high as 1.8" in the
outlined area while MUCAPE of 1500 J/kg remains across the entire
region. At the same, a shortwave trough moving through will focus
the best forcing/lift toward the MS River through the night, which
should lead to a concentrated area of heavy rainfall through about
10z.

There is a fairly good consensus in the latest hi-res guidance
showing widespread areal averages of 1-3" in the outlook area with
several models showing isolated higher totals in the 3-4" range.

The soil conditions are relatively wet across the area with 1-hr
flash flood guidance values of 1-1.5" and 3-hr values 2-3", which
seems attainable given the environment setup and what is
advertised in the hi-res models. The National Water Model
streamflow data shows flows becoming very high and above normal
through the night, suggesting precipitation will transition as
mostly runoff and could initiate more flooding. As such, instances
of flash flooding will be possible overnight.

[Stormy]

That is one scary and ominous looking twister near Golden City, MO last night...woah...

 

 

 

 

Yeah those are amazing pictures, but I think that huge round stove pipe is actually the wall cloud with possibly a tornado somewhere underneath it, though it's not really visible. It appears as if something is reaching the ground near the right side of it, maybe condensation or debris cloud. I saw the same pics yesterday while spending to much time following storm coverage!

 

Anyway, more on/off storms began right after midnight here and it just ended. Had brief downpours & decent lightning at times. Might get another round later from that severe line now in sw. Ia. if it survives that long. I got 0.78" rain which has ended for now.

[East Dubzz]

Picked up 0.71” of rain overnight. Got to see a little lightning and thunder with it.

[Hawkeye]

This event is overperforming.  For days, models had most of the rain and storms missing nw, but the blob moved right across the area.  We had some decent lightning/thunder and finished round 1 with 0.80" of rain.  Another big line is moving in.

[East Dubzz]

This event is overperforming.  For days, models had most of the rain and storms missing nw, but the blob moved right across the area.  We had some decent lightning/thunder and finished round 1 with 0.80" of rain.  Another big line is moving in.

 

Indeed. This is a bit of a surprise. Seems as if every storm lately has under-performed in my area, so getting as much as I did last night was a bit of a shock. And should add some more to that total again here this morning. It was nice to wake up about 2:30 this morning to some lightning and thunder. Wasn't too much, but nice to see. I've been waiting for some nighttime storms, though I prefer it be more like 10pm than so early in the morning. But, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose. 

[Hawkeye]

I'm wondering if the big line this morning might push the boundary farther southeast and cause this evening's storms to miss Cedar Rapids.

[Iowawx]

This event is overperforming.  For days, models had most of the rain and storms missing nw, but the blob moved right across the area.  We had some decent lightning/thunder and finished round 1 with 0.80" of rain.  Another big line is moving in.

I got 1.03" of rain. That is more than I was expecting. That line looks very impressive and it has two warnings on it right now. 

[Iowawx]

I'm wondering if the big line this morning might push the boundary farther southeast and cause this evening's storms to miss Cedar Rapids.

HRRR has some decent looking storms around here this evening. SPC has us in a slight risk. Are you not feeling good about storm potential here later today? 

[james1976]

Picked up 1.51" overnight. Downpouring again

[East Dubzz]

So, if I am at work and a severe storm comes through... for my location, should I tell them my coordinates, my address, or what? 

[Stormy]

Thunder is rumbling once again.Love that sound! Couldn't stand being holed up in a basement like Edbuzz. Wouldn't either like to live in a western state where it rarely thunders. Talk about an active pattern!!

[Andie]

Oh Joy, late Tues-early Thurs we have another inch of rain on the horizon.

 

Temps forecast to be 86-90. Should be sauna time in Texas.

 

I'm thinking the summer NWS forecast for wetter and cooler is on the money.