PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[jcmcgaffey]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I feel pretty confident everywhere from BLI to EUG will hit 70 next week. It’s not hard to do at all at this point with even a little ridging.

Ya especially at SEA which usually tends to over-perform in those situations. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Ya especially at SEA which usually tends to over-perform in those situations. 

Yup. Often wildly.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS a little more crashy late next weekend... 00Z GEM much less so compared to its 12Z run.

[ShawniganLake]

9 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Important to remember, however, that Canada only has 15 cities.

Still in the top 2/3rds.  Not bad!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice night at the airport. Love watching the planes take off and land.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

I take my leafs off anytime I want.

I thought that was Jim in the fall.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, MossMan said:

Think I see a dead branch…I will send you my emotional support hat to borrow. 

Looool

[Phil]

Already seeing the El Niño flavor on the LR GEFS. Tight ITCZ/retracted HC, less subsidence/4CH. Been awhile!

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Already seeing the El Niño flavor on the LR GEFS. Tight ITCZ/retracted HC, less subsidence/4CH. Been awhile!

 

Beautiful.

[TT-SEA]

Awakened by rolling thunder and the sound of heavy rain on our patio.   

00Z ECMWF and EPS look nice... more stable warmth as opposed to spike and huge crash.  

[TacomaWx]

Low of 45 this morning…think that’s the warmest low so far this month! 

[TT-SEA]

57 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Low of 45 this morning…think that’s the warmest low so far this month! 

Love how the 12Z GFS is showing early morning temps close to 60 later in the week.   Tree leafing friendly weather 24 hours a day coming up.   This might be one of the fastest transformations possible given that everything is so delayed and just waiting to explode.   Just 2 or 3 warm days should do the trick.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS completely abandons the ULL scenario and brings a trough in Sunday with a big crash.    00Z EPS was not even close that idea so will need to see more consistency to believe it but it would make sense in terms of climo.    

[FroYoBro]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Love how the 12Z GFS is showing early morning temps close to 60 later in the week.   Tree leafing friendly weather 24 hours a day coming up.   This might be one of the fastest transformations possible given that everything is so delayed and just waiting to explode.

I am also getting sexually excited about tree leafing. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, FroYoBro said:

I am also getting sexually excited about tree leafing. 

Some people on here get pretty excited about leaves turning in the fall too.  Trees seems to drive lots of preferences on here. 

[ShawniganLake]

Drizzly. 0.06” this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

In terms of quick landscape transformations... this coming week is probably second only to a major snowstorm.   

[Phil]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Awakened by rolling thunder and the sound of heavy rain on our patio.   

00Z ECMWF and EPS look nice... more stable warmth as opposed to spike and huge crash.  

Vacation ruined?  

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Vacation ruined?  

It was pretty cool.   And now it's a gorgeous day again.   

[TT-SEA]

You can still see the back side of the front moving off to the NE.

[Phil]

This cloud is making lots of noise. ️ 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Loving the pattern progression on the 12z GFS

[Meatyorologist]

50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some people on here get pretty excited about leaves turning in the fall too.  Trees seems to drive lots of preferences on here. 

I just can't help it

[Cascadia_Wx]

Mostly cloudy and 51 here after a mild low of 47. One of the warmest lows of the year to date.

[Cascadia_Wx]

GEM looks fairly crashing following the ridge now too.

[Phil]

Big time spike in AAM on the EPS weeklies. Should be a much more zonal pattern once that westerly momentum gets transported poleward/off the equator next month.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Big time spike in AAM on the EPS weeklies. Should be a much more zonal pattern once that westerly momentum gets transported poleward/off the equator next month.

Interestingly the jet stream comes back into the picture and crashes the ridge party pretty early on the latest Euro run.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Really nice progression on the Euro overall. I expect more wild swings going forward though. Seems like a pretty volatile pattern that the models are having some issues handling.

The 12z Euro shows PDX hitting 80 or higher next Friday, before the crash.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Finally time to admit winter is over. Should be a lovely spring. 

Edited April 22, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Finally time to admit winter is over. Should be a lovely spring. 

 

I would buy a whole calendar full of these.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

 

I would buy a whole calendar full of these.

I think summer starts right around now on the Nelsen calendar. Runs until Columbus Day or so.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Getting mild out there. Already up to 57.

[Omegaraptor]

61 in Corvallis with a DP of 54. You can almost hear the plants singing. Really nice out.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

61 in Corvallis with a DP of 54. You can almost hear the plants singing. Really nice out.

The green fog advisory must have been extended to the central Willamette valley.

[TT-SEA]

Secondary line of storms forming to the west here.   Might get crazy after 6 or 7 p.m.   This could be fun.

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Secondary line of storms forming to the west here.   Might get crazy after 6 or 7 p.m.   This could be fun.

It was decent here. Did not meet severe criteria locally, but probably ~ 45mph winds and nice lightning.

Oh, and windblown sheets of #blessings. Badly needed.

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Secondary line of storms forming to the west here.   Might get crazy after 6 or 7 p.m.   This could be fun.

There is a sea breeze boundary evident on radar. Will be interesting to see what happens if/when those storms interact with it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very mild day. Btw the property next to me is being divided into 6 lots 5-11 acres. Go on sale in July for about $300k. Apparently the development was approved in 2005 and they are finally getting around to it. If anyone wants to live at 1600’…

[westcoastexpat]

Absolutely fantastic weather in the forecast next weekend. FINALLY!

[T-Town]

61 here with filtered sunshine. Was not expecting that.