August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

I'd be okay with that. Got a big windstorm in December and also a pineapple express in Feberuary. I'd want a little more cold and lowland snow though.

2016-17 was basically a poor man’s 1995-96 as far as rainfall goes. Also, mountain snow was excellent that year (much better than 95-96 I think) and of course Portland got that big 1/10/17 event. The December event wasn’t bad, either. I would absolutely love a 2016-17 repeat especially if the 1/10 event hit the entire region.

[Timmy Supercell]

#August2008

 

Summer did end roughly 08/18/2008. And that turned out to be a good winter. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Summer did end roughly 08/18/2008. And that turned out to be a good winter. 

 

Yup, pretty much nowhere was untouched all the way to SW Oregon at some point with a few inches and in most cases, a helluva lot more.

[Timmy Supercell]

Yup, pretty much nowhere was untouched all the way to SW Oregon at some point with a few inches and in most cases, a helluva lot more.

 

NW Oregon had the strongest case of snow that year, stations down here didn't perform as well. At least in terms of averages.

[MossMan]

I'd be okay with that. Got a big windstorm in December and also a pineapple express in Feberuary. I'd want a little more cold and lowland snow though.

January of 96 had a great shot of snow...up here anyway. About a foot if I remember correctly.

[ShawniganLake]

Things are actually lining up very well for winter. Solar is finally bottoming out (think 2008-09, 1995-96, and 1985-86!), El Niño is dying and is estimated to be neutral by winter, there’s the winter carryover effect that someone here mentioned, the Baffin Island vortex is finally gone which is conducive to arctic blasts, and this summer isn’t torching like we’ve seen far too often this decade.

 

Pretty much an anecdote, but here’s an observation about the last one: Coolest summers of the 2013-date period were 2013 and 2016. We all know what happened in the winters following those two summers. Even more interestingly, they’re three years apart, and now we’re three years from 2016.

 

I’m thinking cold and snowy for this upcoming winter, but to what extent I am unsure. Does anyone know what the most similar analog is to what we have now?

Not sure if there is much connection between summer torching or not with cold and snow in the winter. We’ve had some hot summers and not too bad winters this decade already.

[Requiem]

I prefer my cold with snow, thank you very much. 13-14 sounds terrific.

 

Portland got snow in January. I just want the December windstorm tbh

[Requiem]

The January 1996 snow event was an East Portland special. The downtown station got 1.0” that month and Washington County probably got little to no snow as well.

 

1/10/17 was huge in Washington County, and the snow event in early December actually favored my area I think. I remember the snow being pretty deep with that event.

 

What does 1/10/17 have to do with 1995-1996?  That event was actually quite widespread around the metro area with most areas getting 7+ inches.

[BLI snowman]

The January 1996 snow event was an East Portland special. The downtown station got 1.0” that month and Washington County probably got little to no snow as well.

 

1/10/17 was huge in Washington County, and the snow event in early December actually favored my area I think. I remember the snow being pretty deep with that event.

 

No, the 1/27/96 event was widespread throughout the metro. Most spots had 5-7" with that storm, including Washington County. The snow remained on the ground for about 9 days. I don't believe the downtown measurement is accurate, I recall them being around 4" , although the accumulations were definitely a little sloppier there. I had over 7" in Clark County.

[Requiem]

No, the 1/27/96 event was widespread throughout the metro. Most spots had 5-7" with that storm, including Washington County. The snow remained on the ground for about 9 days. I don't believe the downtown measurement is accurate, recall them being around 4" , although the accumulations were definitely a little sloppier there.

 

Yes, and I believe both the snowcover and the eventual deep freeze contributed partially to the flood situation in early February.

[Omegaraptor]

No, the 1/27/96 event was widespread throughout the metro. Most spots had 5-7" with that storm, including Washington County. The snow remained on the ground for about 9 days. I don't believe the downtown measurement is accurate, I recall them being around 4" , although the accumulations were definitely a little sloppier there. I had over 7" in Clark County.

Thank you for correcting me. I have no idea why the downtown Portland station says there was only 1” of snow that month. The Arctic Blast definitely helped the snow stick around.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Thank you for correcting me. I have no idea why the downtown Portland station says there was only 1” of snow that month.

Guarantee you Gladstone/Milwaukie/OC had less. Happens every time.

[BLI snowman]

Yes, and I believe both the snowcover and the eventual deep freeze contributed partially to the flood situation in early February.

 

Definitely, mid January 1996 onwards was extremely -PNA with a very suppressed storm track. The foothills went from a huge snowpack to 55 degree rain pretty quickly.

[MossMan]

Portland got snow in January. I just want the December windstorm tbh

Didn’t we have two large windstorms that December?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Didn’t we have two large windstorms that December?

There was certainly one that impacted EUG-PDX in a big way. Not sure we have seen a stronger one since.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

#August2008

Summer did end roughly 08/18/2008. And that turned out to be a good winter.

Yup, pretty much nowhere was untouched all the way to SW Oregon at some point with a few inches and in most cases, a helluva lot more.

As of right now, I'm done with summer. I'm satisfied with the warm/hot weather we've received May to July. No more heat waves in sight and below average weather the next 5 days or so. Might as well just focus all my attention to the cold season. Stick a fork in summer!

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs shows cooler temps then what we’ve seen recently coming this weekend into early next week. The weekend overall looks pretty wet on the 18z. No precipitation chances past Sunday for the rest of the run it seems. Hard to put any stock into anything past 7 days right now models being challenged a bit by the pattern.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2016-17 was basically a poor man’s 1995-96 as far as rainfall goes. Also, mountain snow was excellent that year (much better than 95-96 I think) and of course Portland got that big 1/10/17 event. The December event wasn’t bad, either. I would absolutely love a 2016-17 repeat especially if the 1/10 event hit the entire region.

I'd put 16-17 over any winter that I've experienced here. Numerous snow/ice events in Dec/Jan and the 1/10/17 event was epic. 08-09 comes in a close second though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

January of 96 had a great shot of snow...up here anyway. About a foot if I remember correctly.

It was decent down here but up there it was better.

[MossMan]

As of right now, I'm done with summer. I'm satisfied with the warm/hot weather we've received May to July. No more heat waves in sight and below average weather the next 5 days or so. Might as well just focus all my attention to the cold season. Stick a fork in summer!

It’s August 7th.

[ShawniganLake]

18z shows a horrific heat event starting next week.

[Blizzard777]

Guarantee you Gladstone/Milwaukie/OC had less. Happens every time.

Gladstone = Happy Rock....yep Banana belt.....never want to live there again!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'd put 16-17 over any winter that I've experienced here. Numerous snow/ice events in Dec/Jan and the 1/10/17 event was epic. 08-09 comes in a close second though.

 

16-17 spread the wealth up and down the valley.  EUG had a nice event on Jan 7 getting 5-6 inches in Springfield under a very cold airmass.  Jan 13, 2017 remains our most recent sub-freezing high down here.

[seattleweatherguy]

18z shows a horrific heat event starting next week.

The 18z gfs? Metro star hasn’t updated since 12 z

[Omegaraptor]

The 18z gfs? Metro star hasn’t updated since 12 z

 

Try Tropical Tidbits. 18z GFS gets to hour 240 usually by about 3:40 PM PT. 00z GFS usually around 9:40 PM PT.

[El_Nina]

Still cloudy. Dont think we're gonna break out of it here.

[Omegaraptor]

Portland's forecast high of 82 was a massive bust. Currently only 72 at PDX.

[TT-SEA]

Convective build-ups in the exact same spot as yesterday...

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It’s August 7th.

I know but what the 12z EURO/EPS shows and what Joe Bastardi said has a lot of legs. Could still see seasonal weather but the heat waves I'm looking for look to be finished. I also feel the sooner we can end summer, the better it will be for this coming winter.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

16-17 spread the wealth up and down the valley. EUG had a nice event on Jan 7 getting 5-6 inches in Springfield under a very cold airmass. Jan 13, 2017 remains our most recent sub-freezing high down here.

Yeah, you guys did well down there in the Southern Valley. Crazy to think we didn't technically even see an Arctic Blast that winter.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Portland's forecast high of 82 was a massive bust. Currently only 72 at PDX.

Yesterday underwhelmed as well.

[Requiem]

Yesterday underwhelmed as well.

 

I see your profile pic is back to what it used to be! I think that's a good sign for this upcoming winter, no?

[TT-SEA]

79 and sunny here... peaked at 80.

 

More humid today... and no wind at all so it feels really warm.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

With no nino developing to this point, I think there will be regional action at some point in Dec-Jan this time.

[TT-SEA]

Given the non-existent burn off today down south... I assume the models are too optimistic with the clearing tomorrow up here. Even the ECMWF shows it being totally sunny by early afternoon and around 80. But it also showed Portland clearing out by early afternoon today.

[Requiem]

With no nino developing to this point, I think there will be regional action at some point in Dec-Jan this time.

 

As long as us Portlanders don't miss out by 50 miles in both directions again, I'm super excited for this upcoming winter!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I see your profile pic is back to what it used to be! I think that's a good sign for this upcoming winter, no?

Yeah, no need for the blazing sun anymore. I'm in full cold mode now! I think this is the earliest I've ever switched over so we'll see what happens. This could all be a bit premature but oh well.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, no need for the blazing sun anymore. I'm in full cold mode now! I think this is the earliest I've ever switched over so we'll see what happens. This could all be a bit premature but oh well.

 

 

You might have a long wait.   I hope you do.   

 

I have a good feeling about September and October being nice.

 

Even 2008 took until the middle of December.

[Requiem]

You might have a long wait.   I hope you do.   

 

I have a good feeling about September and October being nice.

 

Even 2008 took until the middle of December.

 

Or, hopefully we don't have a long wait and get straight to the storms in late-September. That would be fun too, right?

[TT-SEA]

Or, hopefully we don't have a long wait and get straight to the storms in late-September. That would be fun too, right?

No.

 

I love a long, slow descent into fall with brilliant fall colors.   2008 had awesome fall color here.