August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Been a little drizzle at times this morning. 59 and still socked in by clouds.

Totally sunny here now.

[MossMan]

Totally sunny here now.

Attempting to break up a bit here now. Especially as I look north.

[ShawniganLake]

Clear and 72 here. Definitely a sea breeze today.

[High Desert Mat?]

Clear and 85 here already. I’m ready for Fall. Seems to be a couple days down in the 70’s this weekend then bounces back to mid to upper 80’s again. Yawn

[TT-SEA]

Nice improvement on the 12Z ECMWF for next week... at least for those who want summer weather in the summer.

[TT-SEA]

For hawkstwelve... nice improvement on the 12Z ECMWF for Saturday as well compared to the last couple runs.    Its back to showing mid to upper 70s that afternoon.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TT-SEA]

The 12z EURO looks great in the long range. Very cold air for this time of year starts making it's way down BC. If this was Winter, we'd be talking Arctic Blast. ❄

 

 

 

Gross.

 

Might be what Bastardi was talking about.

 

Hopefully it changes... but that blocking over Alaska keeps coming back.

[TacomaWaWx]

About this time yesterday it had cleared out already but not today. Probably won’t be too much longer.

[MossMan]

Clear and 85 here already. I’m ready for Fall. Seems to be a couple days down in the 70’s this weekend then bounces back to mid to upper 80’s again. Yawn

Have you made your move to Arizona yet?

[TacomaWaWx]

Wondering what the weather this weekend is going to be like. With SE flow off the cascades, maybe, possibly there could be some thunderstorms associated with the rain.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Gross.

 

Might be what Bastardi was talking about.

 

Hopefully it changes... but that blocking over Alaska keeps coming back.

Yeah, hopefully the blocking up in Alaska is a recurrent theme later this fall into winter.

[ShawniganLake]

#August2008

[High Desert Mat?]

Have you made your move to Arizona yet?

It looks like Arizona when I look outside. Dry dry dry. Wish it would rain and stay in the 70’s until October then boom, snow in November.

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and 73 now... beautiful day.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just saw the Joe Bastardi tweet TT-SEA mentioned. He sounds really confident.

 

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi

 

August into Sept going to be ugly cold for western and Central canada summer was short, Conversely the northeast once past the cool 10 days should be quite warm into September.. stretching back SW to Texas Central US, as usual may be where the cold holds in the means

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1158884351309963265

[Front Ranger]

Breaking out in Lincoln City.

[Front Ranger]

Could someone please post that Joe Bastardi tweet one more time?

[Kayla]

Looks like the 12z EPS and control run agree with the operational.

 

The control run goes August 1992 on days 11-15.

 

[El_Nina]

Still cloudy here and just 67.

[Jesse]

The 12z ensemble is more to your liking

Quite favourable.

[Jesse]

Dont know what he is basing this on, but . .

 

 

Joe Bastardi

@BigJoeBastardi

August into Sept going to be ugly cold for western and Central canada summer was short, Conversely the northeast once past the cool 10 days should be quite warm into September.. stretching back SW to Texas Central US, as usual may be where the cold holds in the means

Good news if true.

[TacomaWaWx]

66 and mostly sunny now.

[TacomaWaWx]

Good news if true.

could be an interesting fall/winter coming up.

[Jesse]

EPS doesn’t show the low cutting off offshore as much as the operational did for the middle of next week. Which fortunately would mean cooler and cloudier of it verifies. We need a break from this summery weather.

[Deweydog]

Ugh.

 

Day five of this unrelenting seven-plus-day domebusting f*ckfest of a heatwave. F*ck.

[Jesse]

Well at least that triggered someone.

[Jesse]

Ugh.

 

Day five of this unrelenting seven-plus-day domebusting f*ckfest of a heatwave. F*ck.

I wonder if you’d be mocking someone for complaining about a minor cool spell in a slightly cooler than average summer to date if we’d just gone through six consecutive very cool and cloudy summers in a row. I think I already know the answer.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the 12z EPS and control run agree with the operational.

 

The control run goes August 1992 on days 11-15.

 

 

 

August 1992 was quite lovely here.

[Omegaraptor]

Things are actually lining up very well for winter. Solar is finally bottoming out (think 2008-09, 1995-96, and 1985-86!), El Niño is dying and is estimated to be neutral by winter, there’s the winter carryover effect that someone here mentioned, the Baffin Island vortex is finally gone which is conducive to arctic blasts, and this summer isn’t torching like we’ve seen far too often this decade.

 

Pretty much an anecdote, but here’s an observation about the last one: Coolest summers of the 2013-date period were 2013 and 2016. We all know what happened in the winters following those two summers. Even more interestingly, they’re three years apart, and now we’re three years from 2016.

 

I’m thinking cold and snowy for this upcoming winter, but to what extent I am unsure. Does anyone know what the most similar analog is to what we have now?

[TT-SEA]

I wonder if you’d be mocking someone for complaining about a minor cool spell if we’d just gone through six consecutive very cool and cloud summers in a row. I think I already know the answer.

 

 

Triggered.  

[Jesse]

Fwiw I realize it has cooled off nicely back in town but up here on the mountain it’s still HOTT.

[Deweydog]

I wonder if you’d be mocking someone for complaining about a minor cool spell in a slightly cooler than average summer to date if we’d just gone through six consecutive very cool and cloudy summers in a row. I think I already know the answer.

Then why did you waste your time typing this?

 

Settle. Go out and enjoy the day. It’s quite refreshing.

[Requiem]

Things are actually lining up very well for winter. Solar is finally bottoming out (think 2008-09, 1995-96, and 1985-86!), El Niño is dying and is estimated to be neutral by winter, there’s the winter carryover effect that someone here mentioned, the Baffin Island vortex is finally gone which is conducive to arctic blasts, and this summer isn’t torching like we’ve seen far too often this decade.

 

Pretty much an anecdote, but here’s an observation about the last one: Coolest summers of the 2013-date period were 2013 and 2016. We all know what happened in the winters following those two summers. Even more interestingly, they’re three years apart, and now we’re three years from 2016.

 

I’m thinking cold and snowy for this upcoming winter, but to what extent I am unsure. Does anyone know what the most similar analog is to what we have now?

Just give me a 1995-1996 repeat and I’ll be happy.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Could someone please post that Joe Bastardi tweet one more time?

Missed Brian's post. I will admit, I just skim past some post.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just give me a 1995-1996 repeat and I’ll be happy.

 

I prefer my cold with snow, thank you very much. 13-14 sounds terrific.

[Jesse]

Then why did you waste your time typing this?

 

Settle. Go out and enjoy the day. It’s quite refreshing.

Lunch break and we are at a site with good reception today. It’s hot and dusty up here. Waiting for those upper levels to cool!

 

At least the thunderstorm threat looks to be confined mostly to the east of the crest the next few days. Maybe I won’t dye.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just give me a 1995-1996 repeat and I’ll be happy.

I'd be okay with that. Got a big windstorm in December and also a pineapple express in Feberuary. I'd want a little more cold and lowland snow though.

[Deweydog]

Lunch break and we are at a site with good reception today. It’s hot and dusty up here. Waiting for those upper levels to cool!

 

At least the thunderstorm threat looks to be confined mostly to the east of the crest the next few days. Maybe I won’t dye.

Typing on a mountain equals typing in Hawaii.

 

More Timilarities!!!

[Jesse]

Typing on a mountain equals typing in Hawaii.

More Timilarities!!!

Get back to me in 500 posts.