August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF still showing Friday being warm too with much less marine layer... it shows virtually no low clouds even along the coast or out over the ocean by Friday afternoon.

 

Seems to be trending farther south and west with the ULL coming in Saturday as well.  

[jakeinthevalley]

Temp dropped from nearly 90 to about 60 in an hour. But with the warm airmass it didn't even drop any further that night once it cleared out. 

Was at Lake Billy Chinook many years ago when a Tstorm came over around 4pm. Temp went from mid 90's to around 70 quickly. Enough heating left in the day for temps to rebound back into the 80's after the storm passed.

 

Those are my favorites

[TT-SEA]

I never said fires were going to change(?), I just reported what I was seeing out my window. I doubt it's the marine push in this case, since it is just as hazy now as it has been since Saturday afternoon. 

 

 

I don't think visibility has been bad though.    Its August and there has been humidity in the air... its not going to be crystal clear.   Yesterday was quite good in fact.

 

I often check the Rattlesnake Ledge facebook page since people post pics there all the time and its a good way to gauge visibility in our area.    This was taken yesterday afternoon... pretty good for late summer.

 

[TT-SEA]

Saturday update for Hawkstwelve... 12Z ECMWF is not as good as previous runs which is likely due to slower timing.

 

A small band of rain rotates up from the south on Saturday morning and instead of being up in the north Cascades by afternoon (00Z run) it is still lingering over King County.   Temps are 3-4 degrees cooler than previous runs as a result.   Its just matter of a bad timing for the Seattle area since it shows the air mass being a little warmer than previous runs.

[Front Ranger]

I couldn't see Mt. Hood yesterday...

[Jesse]

I couldn't see Mt. Hood yesterday...

Yeah, Hood was totally obscured from the Glenn Jackson bridge. Couldn’t even see St. Helens from Salmon Creek, which is relatively close to it.

 

Definitely been a very hazy last few days with poor visibility. The price we pay for this warm weather.

[TT-SEA]

I couldn't see Mt. Hood yesterday...

 

 

Mt. Rainier was not visible yesterday either... but that is fairly common when its a little humid in the summer.  

 

This looks like fairly normal late summer visibility though...

 

[Jesse]

Those trees aren't nearly as yellowish as the ones in your yard.

I see a lot of dead/dying trees on the slope facing the lake. Must be a south facing slope.

[TT-SEA]

I see a lot of dead/dying trees on the slope facing the lake. Must be a south facing slope.

 

That faces west... or even WNW.

 

And just like people... trees die.    There are many reasons it can happen.    Nature replaces them very quickly around here.  

[Omegaraptor]

 

12z precip total for the upcoming event. Pretty good precip for Jackson and Siskiyou counties, and Deschutes/Klamath counties get soaked. Looks like visitors to Crater Lake this weekend are in for a surprise. BC interior and Montana get drenched.

[TacomaWaWx]

Left Silverdale about 30 minutes ago and was totally sunny there. Just crossing the bridge back into Tacoma and it’s still cloudy here with the marine layer starting to burn off a bit to the north.

[TT-SEA]

If that was from this weekend, then you're right, that's not too bad. I typically use the series of mountains along the middle fork as my qualitative visibility gauge and they've been difficult to see the last few days. The haze came in (Saturday morning) around when I was seeing reports that we should expect mildly smoky skies (https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1157663417018269696 and https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1158023849172189185 ).

 

Air quality isn't too affected, just visibility it seems. https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/triple-whammy-seattle-seeing-smoke-from-wildfires-in-siberia-alaska-e-washington

 

That pic was from yesterday afternoon.

 

And that haze on Saturday morning came in during the night right after our decent rain event on Friday.    I was surprised to see that considering we had a cool air mass in place.

[Jesse]

Thanks Tim. Here's to hoping for continued improvement.

 

Indeed. Maybe it will trend a little cooler and wetter in the home stretch.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows lingering marine layer through most of Sunday but breaking up during the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

 

Then either side of 80 for Monday - Wednesday... goldilocks weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One of the interesting things about traveling around Oregon this summer is seeing the aftermath of the first that have occurred over the past few years. It is pretty incredible how much has burned. 

[Kayla]

Euro is a thing of beauty in the long range. Brings me back to February. 

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny and close to 80 here at noon.

[MossMan]

This years “smoke” has been nothing like the last two years...This pic was not a marine push, but a smoke push! August 16th of last year.

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and close to 80 here at noon.

 

 

Beautiful day here too... and some cumulus forming over the Cascades now which add to the summery feel.  

[Jesse]

Sunny and close to 80 here at noon.

 

You must still have offshore flow or at least flat gradients up there. Further south definitely more marine layery.

 

Although I was only expecting a south valley (Eugene) marine intrusion this morning. Was surprised to wake up to thick clouds in Portland.

[TT-SEA]

Euro is a thing of beauty in the long range. Brings me back to February. 

 

Looks like lots of 80-degree weather here with plenty of sun.

[TT-SEA]

You must still have offshore flow or at least flat gradients up there. Further south definitely more marine layery.

 

Although I was only expecting a south valley (Eugene) marine intrusion this morning. Was surprised to wake up to thick clouds in Portland.

 

 

00Z ECMWF last night did really well with the marine layer coverage this morning...

 

[ShawniganLake]

You must still have offshore flow or at least flat gradients up there. Further south definitely more marine layery.

 

Although I was only expecting a south valley (Eugene) marine intrusion this morning. Was surprised to wake up to thick clouds in Portland.

Still a north wind here. Marine air is sneaking in along the ocean beaches here. It’s in the low 60s along the water on the Saanich Peninsula. If we see the wind turn westerly late this afternoon we may see temps jump back up to similar levels as the past few days. Maybe upper 80s.

[TT-SEA]

This viewpoint is so common and simplistic, and completely misses the complexities of what is actually occurring. This entire area was clear-cut in the early 1900s. The following photo is facing the same direction as your Rattlesnake Ledge photograph above. It's an incredible photograph, considering that area is Seattle's water source. Many spots have been clear-cut again since then. 

 

44225843_10156629069708745_188983452991750144_o.jpg

 

The trees that were re-established following clear-cutting were of little diversity in both type and age. This has several negative consequences. One of these consequences is occurring now, which is that there is a tree disease that is spreading. Tree diseases are fairly typical, but the problem is that because we lack the diversity of tree-type, this disease has the potential to affect a large percentage of the trees in the area. You can see it already, there are plenty of affected trees in the area. The diseases causes the trees to die, which among other things, leaves a decent quantity of dried dead trees ready to catch and spread fires quickly. Tree roots also provide important slope stabilization. 

 

I don't blame the loggers for doing what they did, it was one of the major industries that jump-started this whole region! I just find it incredible that it will be hundreds of years before the ecosystem we destroyed in a decade will return to its balanced state. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have seen similar photos... as well as some of Mt. Si from the early last century that are really sad.   They were so careless in their logging practices when Europeans first arrived here.    Trees are obviously a renewable resource when managed properly.

 

I remember when we first came out here in 2002 and bought our land and there was still piles of slash on our property from when they logged this area in 1986. 

 

I also remember noticing numerous dead or dying trees around here back then.   I am sure part of that is a symptom of what you are describing.    I also know we have native trees all over our property that have grown immensely since then and are thriving.  

[Jesse]

Still a north wind here. Marine air is sneaking in along the ocean beaches here. It’s in the low 60s along the water on the Saanich Peninsula. If we see the wind turn westerly late this afternoon we may see temps jump back up to similar levels as the past few days. Maybe upper 80s.

 

You would like to break that 90 barrier at some point.

[Jesse]

PDX running -5 compared to yesterday at this time. Will be interesting to see if they make a run at 90 later today.

 

If not we may have to wait until late August or September for our first "official" heatwave of the summer.

[jcmcgaffey]

PDX running -5 compared to yesterday at this time. Will be interesting to see if they make a run at 90 later today.

 

If not we may have to wait until late August or September for our first "official" heatwave of the summer.

. Definitely running cooler here compared to yesterday when I was expecting it to be hotter. I was pleasantly surprised to walk outside feeling comfortable as we are running about 10 deg cooler than this time yesterday here.

[Omegaraptor]

 

CFS December prediction. #pleaseverify

[Jesse]

3F29DE51-CFC5-4682-9C5B-EB7515D87839.png

 

CFS December prediction. #pleaseverify

 

Looks like a lot of cold, nasty, lip-chapping east wind. Or do you like that now? I can't keep track.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The official heatwave criteria is silly. I guess half of the country is in a perpetual heatwave every summer?

I believe it originated on the East Coast. It's the official criteria that the NWS uses. I agree though that it's too broad of a term. It also depends on the anomalies a location gets.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00Z ECMWF last night did really well with the marine layer coverage this morning...

 

Yeah, it did a great job. When I left for work this morning it was cloudy but as soon as I got to the west side it was perfectly sunny.

[Jesse]

Nice day.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like a lot of cold, nasty, lip-chapping east wind. Or do you like that now? I can't keep track.

It is what the majority of the forum wants, and it would probably deliver lowland snow as well as plenty of mountain snow. It’s in December too. East winds are a small price to pay.

 

Also CFS is now predicting average temps for October but wetter than normal.

[Requiem]

Looks like a lot of cold, nasty, lip-chapping east wind. Or do you like that now? I can't keep track.

 

I love east wind, ya know? So invigorating, stepping out and immediately freezing to death. 

 

(In all seriousness I actually do love east winds, my area gets pretty wild when we get a strong event.)

[Jesse]

I love east wind, ya know? So invigorating, stepping out and immediately freezing to death.

 

(In all seriousness I actually do love east winds, my area gets pretty wild when we get a strong event.)

I love the cold east wind. We live in a great spot for it out in east county too.

[TT-SEA]

It is what the majority of the forum wants, and it would probably deliver lowland snow as well as plenty of mountain snow. It’s in December too. East winds are a small price to pay.

 

Also CFS is now predicting average temps for October but wetter than normal.

 

I would absolutely love a cold December too... but the CFS is about as good as a coin flip.   

[Requiem]

I love the cold east wind. We live in a great spot for it out in east county too.

 

The only problem I feel it would pose is downsloping during major snow events.

[Jesse]

The only problem I feel it would pose is downsloping during major snow events.

Depends if it’s a gap wind or not.

[MossMan]

Nice day.

Nice day!!

[ShawniganLake]

You would like to break that 90 barrier at some point.

Hopefully. Might not happen this summer