August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

^ is that a penis?

[TT-SEA]

I have, just haven't seen a bolt of lightning since then.

That is so strange. I have seen many just this summer alone.

 

I am pretty sure I have seen lightning every year of my life... even in San Diego.

[MossMan]

My family from Minnesota is visiting us. They grow hail big there!

[Front Ranger]

^ is that a penis?

 

Looks like Florida is getting an enlargement.

[Front Ranger]

That is so strange. I have seen many just this summer alone.

 

I am pretty sure I have seen lightning every year of my life... even in San Diego.

 

Just as clouds/rain gravitate towards certain people, lightning avoids others like the plague.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A Nov like 1985

Dec like 2013 and a better, more southern-based version of 2008

Jan like 1950 combined with 1969

Feb like the one we just had with an early Feb 2014 feel

 

Would certainly be legit! 

 

A 1992-93 redux would be great. 2016-17 was sort of that winters little brother, but the snow details didn't work out quite as well as 92-93. 

 

I think a 1948-49 redux would be fun. 

 

The one event I would love to see a repeat of is the December 1919 arctic blast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

People really want to move here. And really don't want to move to the Midwest or South: https://porch.com/resource/you-couldnt-pay-me-to-move

 

I enjoyed living in Oklahoma. I wouldn't want to live in Denver, but I could live in Colorado Springs. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, I don't think it's headed into the Gulf of Mexico. Will curve north, just a matter if it makes it's way into Florida.

 

FWIW, here is what Joe Bastardi is thinking. Would not be a good track for those living on the east coast of FL. Still possibly a hurricane as it heads into SE Georgia.

 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1167108877898436614

 

These things often curve at the last minute and miss land entirely. 

[TT-SEA]

And the 12Z ECMWF is coming in WAY south with the hurricane... and much slower.

 

Still offshore and drifting to the SW on Tuesday morning...

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF also shows a lovely weekend... partly to mostly sunny out around here all 3 days with highs in the 75-80 degree range.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Big earthquakes like this happen every few months or one a year on the subduction zone. Pretty active fault line but mostly isn’t notable just light shaking on the coast.

Well the one quake that happens every few months is out of the way now so I'd actually be more confident if I were you.

That's good to know.

[TT-SEA]

And yet... the 12Z ECMWF still shows a sharp turn northward after Tuesday morning and it rakes the entire east coast of Florida.

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

These things often curve at the last minute and miss land entirely.

Yeah, still a decent chance it never makes landfall in FL.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

And yet... the 12Z ECMWF still shows a sharp turn northward after Tuesday morning and it rakes the entire east coast of Florida.

 

 

Still a huge amount of uncertainty in the track. The slower speed is good though. Gives more time for hurricane preparedness.

[TT-SEA]

Cumulative max wind gust map from the 12Z ECMWF:

 

[Phil]

You don't have a sweeping trough that is plowing through though.

Yeah..makes it a tough call. Always seems to set up perfectly to be a forecasting nightmare for landfalls nowadays where there’s no clear steering mechanism to drive the storm..just a multitude of subtle bumps, impulses, and gateways that to lure the cyclone any which way if the variables are tweaked to an infinitesimally slight degree.

[Blizzard777]

These things often curve at the last minute and miss land entirely.

 

Thanks to ShawniganLake this can mean two different things

[El_Nina]

I have, just haven't seen a bolt of lightning since then.

God is keeping flashing lights away from you for a reason can't you see.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yeah..makes it a tough call. Always seems to set up perfectly to be a forecasting nightmare for landfalls nowadays where there’s no clear steering mechanism to drive the storm..just a multitude of subtle bumps, impulses, and gateways that to lure the cyclone any which way if the variables are tweaked to an infinitesimally slight degree.

Very true.

[TacomaWaWx]

Thunderstorms starting to build up in SW WA. Some pretty strong cells on radar it appears.

[TacomaWaWx]

70 and sunny in Tacoma. S breeze as well. We will see how these cells in SW WA develop over the next couple hours here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

81F and partly cloudy. Pleasant day.

[Timmy]

Krtx is back up

[Blizzard777]

Thunderstorms starting to build up in SW WA. Some pretty strong cells on radar it appears.

Very active

[Blizzard777]

Very active

I’m assuming south sound will just miss this one as well! Just fizzles over us then redevelops as it get to the SeaTac area.

That’s according to a futurecast radar. We shall see

[TacomaWaWx]

Very active

instability increasing now it seems with the sun being fully out for a couple hours now with the temp here at 75 now and the DP at 64 degrees.

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m assuming south sound will just miss this one as well! Just fizzles over us then redevelops as it get to the SeaTac area.

That’s according to a futurecast radar. We shall see

Yep we will have to wait and see. Wouldn’t be the first time it happened lol.

[ShawniganLake]

Very true.

Tough to say how deeply or even if Dorian will penetrate Florida at this point

[Phil]

Tough to say how deeply or even if Dorian will penetrate Florida at this point

Perhaps I’m trying to psychologically protect SE GA from surge, but I have a hunch it’ll end up being a Florida head-fake followed by a Carolina landfall or graze. Narrow mid-level ridge and beta-drifting opens the poleward gateway as the SW-Atlantic ridge weakens but there might only be a brief window for it to be kicked out to sea. Would have to thread the needle to pull that off.

[Jesse]

Krtx is back up

 

jaya

[TacomaWaWx]

Radar really lighting up now. Broad swath of showers and t-storms moving ENE into the sound right now.

[Jesse]

Looks like a band of showers is about to cross the Portland metro from SW to NE. 78 currently. Nice to have the radar back up and running a little early.

 

Had a pretty fantastic nocturnal lightning show between 3-5am this morning. Frequent lightning and thunder for a few hours. Also a couple small downpours in there. Ended up picking up about .15" in rainfall.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We have had 0.55" of precip for the month which is exactly average.

[seattleweatherguy]

So far no rain just party cloudy to now mostly sunny

[Jesse]

Getting a heavy downpour here at the moment. Temp is 74.

[TacomaWaWx]

Clouds have rolled into Tacoma, breezy right now 73 with a DP of 63. Hearing some distant rumbles getting louder.

[TT-SEA]

Totally sunny and 78 here... hopefully priming the pump right now.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Tough to say how deeply or even if Dorian will penetrate Florida at this point

NHC still going with a major category 4 hurricane making landfall in Central FL but the cone is still rather large. Could still go out to sea. Going to be a nerve-racking next few days narrowing down this track.

 

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue

 

Not much change with the 5 pm NHC update for Hurricane #Dorian Then mention the tricky forecast with storm slowing down a bit further south in the Bahamas. Bottom line: Category 4 hurricane into Florida on Labor Day

 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167178529127243776

[Omegaraptor]

18z GFS is actually showing some signs of fall after day 8.

[Blizzard777]

Nest cam shot looking west from Federal Way. You can see the storm line from Tacoma spreading west