August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Dorian is just starting to develop an eye.

 

Just going to intensify further.

 

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits

 

The GFS forecasts nearly uniform flow with height in #Dorian's environment Monday evening, indicating a highly favorable environment for strengthening as the storm approaches the northern Bahamas. Dangerous situation unfolding

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167462758281043968

[Phil]

Week-2 EPS looks pro-Tim/anti-Phil/anti-Jesse. FWIW.

 

[Phil]

Just going to intensify further.

 

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits

 

The GFS forecasts nearly uniform flow with height in #Dorian's environment Monday evening, indicating a highly favorable environment for strengthening as the storm approaches the northern Bahamas. Dangerous situation unfolding

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167462758281043968

Yeah, I don’t like this at all. Furthermore, there’s a ULL/PV anomaly oriented perfectly upstream (tonight) relative to the track axis to ventilate the storm’s outflow. Many of the most notorious Atlantic storms in history have had similar features present.

 

I think the diurnal maximum tonight could see this thing make a run at high-end cat4 status.

[Phil]

And keep in mind Dorian is still a relatively small storm (in terms of the radius of the primary/int circulation) at this point, so it can wrap up/intensify more quickly than a larger/wider storm.

 

Think of Wilma (in the Caribbean) in 2005, or the infamous Labor Day hurricane in 1935.

[Timmy]

12z GFS shows a bit more of a northerly track.

for our nw later summer weather?

[TT-SEA]

Partly sunny and 66 here now... looks like we picked up .15 overnight.

[Blizzard777]

00Z ECMWF manages to hit the entire SE US coastline with Dorian...

 

GFS agrees with same track!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is still offshore with Dorian on Tuesday morning...

 

[TT-SEA]

And the 12Z ECMWF shows it staying just offshore as it moves northward by Wednesday...

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows Dorian missing the entire FL and GA coastline... SC and NC would be more vulnerable with this track as the storm maintains strength on its northward trek and those states are far enough east to get in its path.

 

[El_Nina]

Picked up 0.06" here from the monsoons.

[Deweydog]

Definitely a touch of fall in the air leaving the house this morning!

[Omegaraptor]

 

Here’s a picture of Mt Shasta taken by me on August 24. Clear blue skies in a region where wildfires are notoriously frequent.

 

Remember all the hysteria about how this was going to be a horrible fire season?

[TT-SEA]

5F746ACC-4957-4FE2-934B-1EFA01930C8B.jpeg

 

Here’s a picture of Mt Shasta taken by me on August 24. Clear blue skies in a region where wildfires are notoriously frequent.

 

Remember all the hysteria about how this was going to be a horrible fire season?

I remember all the hysteria.

 

Turns out that July and August weather can mitigate dry spring weather and completely nullify a fire season. As I suspected.

[TT-SEA]

Amazingly... the 12Z ECMWF misses the entire East Coast.

 

Dorian never makes landfall on this run.

 

[Deweydog]

CNN, TWC and Fox News vote NO on that solution.

[Jesse]

Definitely a touch of fall in the air leaving the house this morning!

This recent turn of events has really helped alleviate some of my pent up rage toward the f*ggots making those observations last week!

[MossMan]

Amazingly... the 12Z ECMWF misses the entire East Coast.

 

Dorian never makes landfall on this run.

 

Non event.

Forks.

[Blizzard777]

5F746ACC-4957-4FE2-934B-1EFA01930C8B.jpeg

Here’s a picture of Mt Shasta taken by me on August 24. Clear blue skies in a region where wildfires are notoriously frequent.

Remember all the hysteria about how this was going to be a horrible fire season?

And Shasta Lake is full according to that shot !!! So many trips down south over the past 30 years and watching this Lake slowly dry up! So glad Mother Nature has balanced things out once again. Absolutely beautiful area to explore and have fun. Fun note: my buddy and I buried a treasure chest down there long long ago and it included a playboy magazine. We dug it up 10 years later and playboy book was gone (deteriorated) but plastic things remain. We buried the chest again and haven’t tried to relocate since. Castle Craig’s was a great day hike as well with beautiful views!

[Front Ranger]

Lol

 

Beatdown!

[Front Ranger]

Here’s a picture of Mt Shasta taken by me on August 24. Clear blue skies in a region where wildfires are notoriously frequent.

 

Remember all the hysteria about how this was going to be a horrible fire season?

 

No. I do remember concerns about drought, because it was happening after another very dry late spring.

[GHweatherChris]

Beatdown!

My comment got more attention than I thought it would, pretty funny actually!!

[Requiem]

My comment got more attention than I thought it would, pretty funny actually!!

Do you have any proof that you were the one who made that comment?

[Omegaraptor]

And Shasta Lake is full according to that shot !!! So many trips down south over the past 30 years and watching this Lake slowly dry up! So glad Mother Nature has balanced things out once again. Absolutely beautiful area to explore and have fun. Fun note: my buddy and I buried a treasure chest down there long long ago and it included a playboy magazine. We dug it up 10 years later and playboy book was gone (deteriorated) but plastic things remain. We buried the chest again and haven’t tried to relocate since. Castle Craig’s was a great day hike as well with beautiful views!

That’s Lake Siskiyou, not Shasta Lake.

 

Although I do believe Shasta Lake is full. And yeah, great area to explore and hike. Unfortunately didn’t go to Castle Crags but I did go to Burney Falls, McCloud Falls, and Mossbrae Falls. Didn’t go to Lassen NP either but I hear it’s beautiful.

[GHweatherChris]

Do you have any proof that you were the one who made that comment?

7:29 AM

[Requiem]

7:29 AM

Still see no evidence. I need ID, passport, credit card information, psychological background, and a stool test. Ty

[GHweatherChris]

Still see no evidence. I need ID, passport, credit card information, psychological background, and a stool test. Ty

I can overnight the stool sample.

[Requiem]

I can overnight the stool sample.

 

Awesome, we got a lab back in North Bend that can get that done ASAP. Your cooperation is appreciated!

[Phil]

CNN, TWC and Fox News vote NO on that solution.

Ha, I’ll bet Jeff Zucker and Anderson Cooper are dressed in black robes performing ancient chants and throwing hexed objects into a fire as we speak. Anything to avoid such a “disastrous” outcome.

[Front Ranger]

August has been on quite the warm streak. 2019 makes 8 in a row that have had widespread warmer than normal anomalies for the PNW.

 

Leading up to that, 2006-2011 were all cool or about normal for the western lowlands.

[Deweydog]

August has been on quite the warm streak. 2019 makes 8 in a row that have had widespread warmer than normal anomalies for the PNW.

 

Leading up to that, 2006-2011 were all cool or about normal for the western lowlands.

Nice month.

 

It rained, it summered, it thundered...

[Omegaraptor]

Nice day.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

College football about to start up again tonight. Clouds burned off. 77F in downtown Springfield. Good day.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS shows Dorian moving right along the entire SE US coastline.    It literally follows the coastline perfectly from Palm Beach to Virginia Beach.   

 

That would be a disaster scenario... and very expensive.  

[Phil]

Scary first set of recon obs...the pressure has plummeted down to 950mb, which is a drop of 20/6hrs..yikes. Winds up to 111kts in the SE eyewall..with stronger winds likely to be measured in the NE eyewall shortly.

 

Should reach cat4 status tonight.

[jcmcgaffey]

August has been on quite the warm streak. 2019 makes 8 in a row that have had widespread warmer than normal anomalies for the PNW.

 

Leading up to that, 2006-2011 were all cool or about normal for the western lowlands.

. How does Olympia look? Also is there a reliable station up north with a long history and not affected much by UHI?

 

Last question where do you go to look up this stuff. I have a few places I go to but it’s hard to look up on my phone quickly.

[TT-SEA]

Low clouds are thickening up in the middle of the afternoon... instead of burning off.

[Blizzard777]

18Z GFS shows Dorian moving right along the entire SE US coastline.    It literally follows the coastline perfectly from Palm Beach to Virginia Beach.   

 

That would be a disaster scenario... and very expensive.

 

 

Frying Pan Cam time!

We won’t hope for that scenario. I’m good with it hanging off the coast a ways

[Blizzard777]

High 75* low 63*

[BLI snowman]

. How does Olympia look? Also is there a reliable station up north with a long history and not affected much by UHI?

 

Last question where do you go to look up this stuff. I have a few places I go to but it’s hard to look up on my phone quickly.

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/summary/Climsmwa.html

 

Olympia may see their coolest August since 2012. Which isn't saying anything, really. Still almost two degrees over their long term average.

 

If by up north you mean closer to the border, Clearbrook is a good rural station with a long, uninterrupted record in Whatcom County. A little further south you have Sedro Woolley and then closer to the Seattle metro you have Snoqualmie Falls and Monroe with long histories and fairly minimal UHI.