TT-SEA Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Maybe Tim could look up the verification scores, I’m pretty sure weatherbell has them. Last I saw, the euro was still ahead on large scale medium range 500mb patterns.I don't know which model is leading the way overall. But I know for sure that for the last 3 months... the model showing the least amount of ridging in the PNW is the one that will end up more right. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Rainy and windy here this morning, this is a day straight out of November; I can hear the rain pelting against the windows. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Rainy and breezy down south as well. 0.12” so far and 54 degrees. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 ECMWF seasonal forecast. Decent out here but not so great for you guys. Looks like best shot is Dec/Jan but focused up in the Puget Sound lowlands. November December January February 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 I don't know which model is leading the way overall. But I know for sure that for the last 3 months... the model showing the least amount of ridging in the PNW is the one that will end up more right.Yea I read a few of the posts regarding this conclusion yesterday. Thought maybe we could add some actual data to the discussion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 I don't know which model is leading the way overall. But I know for sure that for the last 3 months... the model showing the least amount of ridging in the PNW is the one that will end up more right. Right now they're pretty similar for days 6-10. Not extremely ridgy or troughy overall. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Cliff Mass post on the record number of warm nights this summer and the blob that is responsible... https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/09/why-have-our-low-temperatures-been-so.html Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 The 0z Euro was less troughy. GFS was less ridgy. Hard to say which one is "leading the way" at this point.Easy there. It’s Sep 15th, not Nov 15th. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 ECMWF seasonal forecast. Decent out here but not so great for you guys. Looks like best shot is Dec/Jan but focused up in the Puget Sound lowlands. November December January FebruaryI’ve never seen those maps verify at this range. They had the same prediction for the PNW this time last year. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Easy there. It’s Sep 15th, not Nov 15th. ...It's Sept 17th. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 I’ve never seen those maps verify at this range. They had the same prediction for the PNW this time last year. Did they? I would be curious to see last years if you have them. Obviously not a great predictor, but they can still be good to see possible large scale seasonal patterns and where the mean trough positions might set up. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 ...It's Sept 17th.Thank you. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted September 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 ECMWF seasonal forecast. Decent out here but not so great for you guys. Looks like best shot is Dec/Jan but focused up in the Puget Sound lowlands. November December January February I certainly won't be happy if the region has the same snowfall disparity as last year in terms of Puget Sound getting snow. But these maps aren't too accurate this far out anyways, so... Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Similar to flash floods in the SW and cold in N-Texas. Doesn’t happen often, but when it does, it can be extreme and people aren’t acclimated.Yeah, I was thinking not many people probably have AC out there. I know those areas can get big heatwaves too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Cliff Mass post on the record number of warm nights this summer and the blob that is responsible... https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/09/why-have-our-low-temperatures-been-so.htmlInteresting take by Cliff. He makes some good points though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Nice day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Had a slight break in the action as I drove to work. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Everything is on fire up here... raging infernos all around us. This front is saving us! Whew. Guess it ended a few weeks ago. Usually it takes a few decent storms in Southern California to end their fire season. A storm with 0.25" rainfall totals will not do the job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 ECMWF seasonal forecast. Decent out here but not so great for you guys. Looks like best shot is Dec/Jan but focused up in the Puget Sound lowlands. November December January FebruaryThe December and January maps have tons of potential. Always good to see a cold and snow covered Columbia River Basin. Based on the maps alone, it's probably thinking a backdoor Arctic Blast(s). I feel we might see an ice storm or two here this winter. Won't take much of a shift for everyone west of the Cascades to get high snow anomalies. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 More strong but DRY Arctic fronts... Ugh. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 ...It's Sept 17th.Haha. My brain is completely fried. Not sure I’ll make it the next two months without stroking out. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Did they? I would be curious to see last years if you have them. Obviously not a great predictor, but they can still be good to see possible large scale seasonal patterns and where the mean trough positions might set up.Possibly, but that assumes the model is correct. Last September, the model was forecasting a warm west/cold east winter, and the opposite verified. Perhaps it was on track until the SSW. Same with the previous winter. But intraseasonal variability is an aspect of every winter..so there’s always going to be something. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 12z GFS is pretty dry and ridge-like days 6-10. #autofail Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Possibly, but that assumes the model is correct. Last September, the model was forecasting a warm west/cold east winter, and the opposite verified. Perhaps it was on track until the SSW. Same with the previous winter. But intraseasonal variability is an aspect of every winter..so there’s always going to be something. The above maps are snowfall anomalies though, not temps. The ECMWF seasonal is predicting a lot of NPAC blocking leading to below average temps in the NW while being rather dry which is not surprising given the blocking it's predicting. At this point, I feel like it's a decent forecast for the NW. Below average temps with below average precip. Of course in the PNW lowlands it only takes a couple storms to turn a cold, dry winter into a great, snowy one. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 I can definitely see this being one of those winters where snow pack could be practically non-existent in the metro area going into spring. Warm ups and cool downs... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Snowfall anomaly maps seem particularly useless for the PNW lowlands. 1 hard hitting overrunning event could get a lot of places to average on the season in 1 6-12 hour event. It could be followed by a quick warm up and 12 hours later the snow would be all gone. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 The above maps are snowfall anomalies though, not temps. The ECMWF seasonal is predicting a lot of NPAC blocking leading to below average temps in the NW while being rather dry which is not surprising given the blocking it's predicting. At this point, I feel like it's a decent forecast for the NW. Below average temps with below average precip. Of course in the PNW it only takes a couple storms to turn a cold, dry winter into a great, snowy one.Well I’m saying the forecast last winter was warm/dry. The problem is the resolution of those maps is low/smoothed over by this vendor, and it’s an large ensemble. A cold/dry winter could easily feature above normal snowfall in the lowlands but a crappy snowpack in the mountains, and the latter is what the ensemble would be picking up on because it would be the stronger/more consistent signal throughout the ensemble mean, which is then smoothed over by this vendor (rather inappropriately in some places, I might add). 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Little break in the activity currently. 0.17” so far since 6:30am, 55 outside. Up to 1.56” for the month which is officially the wettest September since 2014, when we had 2.41”. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 0.37” here this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Well I’m saying the forecast last winter was warm/dry. The problem is the resolution of those maps is low/smoothed over by this vendor, and it’s an large ensemble. A cold/dry winter could easily feature above normal snowfall in the lowlands but a crappy snowpack in the mountains, and the latter is what the ensemble would be picking up on because it would be the stronger/more consistent signal throughout the ensemble mean, which is then smoothed over by this vendor (rather inappropriately in some places, I might add). Then it did a pretty good job overall IMO. That SSW event was the only thing that "saved" the PNW lowlands with its late Feb heroics. I agree with you on the rest of this and the smoothing factor. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 PDX record highest average low in September is 56.7°F set in 2013. So far, this month is at 60.4°F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Well I’m saying the forecast last winter was warm/dry. The problem is the resolution of those maps is low/smoothed over by this vendor, and it’s an large ensemble. A cold/dry winter could easily feature above normal snowfall in the lowlands but a crappy snowpack in the mountains, and the latter is what the ensemble would be picking up on because it would be the stronger/more consistent signal throughout the ensemble mean, which is then smoothed over by this vendor (rather inappropriately in some places, I might add).. Our winter was overall warm and dry outside of February but pretty close to normal. I think the long range maps were fairly accurate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Snowfall anomaly maps seem particularly useless for the PNW lowlands. 1 hard hitting overrunning event could get a lot of places to average on the season in 1 6-12 hour event. It could be followed by a quick warm up and 12 hours later the snow would be all gone.Yeah, was thinking the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Uh, yeah...that’s a lot of subsidence over the Indo-Pacific. It’s an intraseasonal state (or the amplification of a background state by such) but this might be enough to put the kibosh on any -ENSO attempt in the long run, even with future propagation. Should see westerlies cranking over much of the tropical Pacific for the next 2 weeks at least, following the first WWB last week/weekend. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Looks like a stained glass window at some church. Jesus likes snow. Has to be a good sign! 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 PDX record highest average low in September is 56.7°F set in 2013. So far, this month is at 60.4°F. Well it led to good things later on. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 This front/rainfall has been extremely underwhelming today. Just around 0.10" most places in NW Oregon. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Today’s front seems a lot less organized than Sunday’s, so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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