September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF shows more precip down south on Sunday afternoon and drier weather in the Seattle area.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF shows more precip down south on Sunday afternoon and drier weather in the Seattle area.

 

 

I even have a chance of more t'storms Sunday, possibly even during frontal passage. 

[MossMan]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF shows more precip down south on Sunday afternoon and drier weather in the Seattle area.

 

Is Saturday dry? I really need to mow badly when we get home in the afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

Is Saturday dry? I really need to mow badly when we get home in the afternoon.

 

 

Should be.  

[seattleweatherguy]

Is Saturday dry? I really need to mow badly when we get home in the afternoon.

Mowing needed here too wow grass is long

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks like the last couple of runs... it will be interesting to see if the more progressive GFS leads the way.

[Front Ranger]

That could have been just in WA, or my little pocket in Hillsboro didn't get anything white in the same season a windstorm happened. I remember the Dec 2006 wind quite well, that was right after the start of my winter break from school. But between then and March 2008 and I can't remember any snow falling.

 

The 2 years between March 2006 and March 2008 I'm pretty sure Hillsboro went snowless.

No snow in Jan 2007?

[Front Ranger]

Overall, strong and consistent support from all models for the coldest September event in quite awhile.

[Jesse]

What a majestic Euro run. What I wouldn’t give to see that pattern repeat in December or January.

[TacomaWaWx]

Overall, strong and consistent support from all models for the coldest September event in quite awhile.

Hoping it verifies so I can head up and see some snow up at sunrise on Mt.Rainier soon! Overall it’s been a pretty interesting month already. One of the biggest thunderstorm outbreaks of the last 20 years, then another good thunderstorm band 5 days later. It’s also rained 12 out of the last 14 days and we’re likely to get a bit more before the months over.

[Jesse]

Mowing needed here too wow grass is long

My grass is currently at 74%

[Phil]

What other years had SH SSW and similar tropical forcing in the past?

2009, 2004, and 1982 (though only 2004 and 2002 match in terms of QBO).

 

2007 is debatable.

[TacomaWaWx]

No snow in Jan 2007?

We definitely had snow here as well in January 2007 wasn’t just a north interior event.

[Front Ranger]

2009, 2004, and 1982 (though only 2004 and 2002 match in terms of QBO).

 

2007 is debatable.

2009, 2002, and 1982 were all moderate to strong Ninos, though. 2009 was the only solar min one.

[Front Ranger]

We definitely had snow here as well in January 2007 wasn’t just a north interior event.

Portland had snow in Jan 2007. That's why I was dubious to hear Hillsboro didn't.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phil, you keep referencing 2002, but so far this fall is playing out completely different than that one did...

[Timmy Supercell]

No snow in Jan 2007?

 

I do vaguely recall a couple mornings I rode the school bus with maybe a quarter-half inch on the ground. Maybe because we didn't get days off of school that month it was a lot less memorable for me.

 

Looking at KHIO records they do show a few snows in Jan '07. The ones that actually result in school delays/closures stick with me more. Which happens most of the time it snows west of the cascades. lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There was a pretty widespread snow event in January 2007... I was living in Oklahoma, but I know my Dad in Silverton and brother in Eugene both got a few inches, I am sure Hillsboro did too...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z ensembles were the coldest yet. 

[Timmy Supercell]

There was a pretty widespread snow event in January 2007... I was living in Oklahoma, but I know my Dad in Silverton and brother in Eugene both got a few inches, I am sure Hillsboro did too...

 

A few inches surely would have closed my Beaverton School District. It was probably a slushy 1/2" in parts of the west side, buses picked up students on time during that one so it wasn't very memorable.

[Deweydog]

What a majestic Euro run. What I wouldn’t give to see that pattern repeat in December or January.

What exactly would you give for generally 1,000 foot snow levels?

[High Desert Mat?]

I love Marks last blog update. The ensemble charts he put up look amazing. 75 days from now they’d look even more amazing. Block in the perfect spot, trough perfect as well, it doesn’t get better than in the winter here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What exactly would you give for generally 1,000 foot snow levels?

 

Everything.

[Timmy Supercell]

Everything.

 

Okay then, your entire wine cellar is mine 

[Front Ranger]

What exactly would you give for generally 1,000 foot snow levels?

 

570 line past Anchorage...

[seattleweatherguy]

I love Marks last blog update. The ensemble charts he put up look amazing. 75 days from now they’d look even more amazing. Block in the perfect spot, trough perfect as well, it doesn’t get better than in the winter here.

Link would love to learn and see that

[Jesse]

What exactly would you give for generally 1,000 foot snow levels?

The general long wave pattern, snarkypants.

 

Sorry your and Tim’s belated summer isn’t working out....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

No snow in Jan 2007?

We had some very cold temps and a half inch in Eugene when I lived in the Phi Psi house in Jan that year. There was some alcohol and cannabis consumption esp in our party basement (we had a full bar) so my memory is a bit fuzzy but I’m pretty sure what the ACIS records show is that event. One of the few times there was much snow in Jan for EUG along with early Jan 2017.

[Deweydog]

[Timmy Supercell]

We had some very cold temps and a half inch in Eugene when I lived in the Phi Psi house in Jan that year. One of the few times there was much snow in Jan for EUG along with early Jan 2017.

 

From 1/2" to 3" is quite a spread of reports. So it probably isn't my bad memory interfering with Jan 2007. My area simply just may not have done well with that snow.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Front Ranger]

What exactly would you give for generally 1,000 foot snow levels?

 

 

Unfortunately it doesn’t mean quite the same thing in late September.

 

Agreed. Which is why your first post is kinda silly. That amplified of a pattern in Dec/Jan could easily deliver snow below 1000'.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Agreed. Which is why your first post is kinda silly. That amplified of a pattern in Dec/Jan could easily deliver snow below 1000'.

Yup, opportunities for numerous lows to slide down the coast.

[TacomaWaWx]

Now that the astronomical summer is wrapping up I did the math on the rain total so far for this summer. We’ve had 4.89” of rain since June 21st. This Astronomical spring we had 3.25” of rain (March 20th-June 21st). Obviously most of us weather weenies go by the meteorological calendar but I still found this quite interesting. The grass is much greener here at the end of the September than it was at the end of June, something you normally don’t see.

[Deweydog]

Agreed. Which is why your first post is kinda silly. That amplified of a pattern in Dec/Jan could easily deliver snow below 1000'.

It could with some help, but generally that type of broad circulation is not an effective way to tap into continental air. Still a nice pattern, though.

[BLI snowman]

A few inches surely would have closed my Beaverton School District. It was probably a slushy 1/2" in parts of the west side, buses picked up students on time during that one so it wasn't very memorable.

 

Basically everyone got 3-4" in the Portland area on 1/16/07. It hit everyone.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2007/01/16/

 

The snow on the 10th was very spotty around Portland, some places had up to 3-4" but most got an inch or less.

[Deweydog]

18z is running!

[Timmy Supercell]

Basically everyone got 3-4" in the Portland area on 1/16/07. It hit everyone.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2007/01/16/

 

The snow on the 10th was very spotty around Portland, some places had up to 3-4" but most got an inch or less.

 

I'm not doubting there was that much in places. There were a couple times my place had less than others. Some folks in the Dec 2008 event had 12-15" depths but my apartments near Tanasbourne had about 9" on the ground, roughly the same as Jan 2004 depth I got in Bethany. It's not unheard to have an inconsistent amount of snow in the metro. Anything over a couple inches is an easy snow day off of school for kids at BSD, that happens a lot in snow events.

[BLI snowman]

I'm not doubting there was that much in places. There were a couple times my place had less than others. Some folks in the Dec 2008 event had 12-15" depths but my apartments near Tanasbourne had about 9" on the ground, roughly the same as Jan 2004 depth I got in Bethany. It's not unheard to have an inconsistent amount of snow in the metro. Anything over a couple inches is an easy snow day off of school for kids at BSD, that happens a lot in snow events.

 

I'm sure they would have closed schools there. Looks like people in Beaverton reported the same amounts that day as the rest of the metro area, 3-4".

 

I think you're probably confusing 2006-07 with 2007-08, a winter where there wasn't any real widespread ground covering event in the Portland area.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm sure they would have closed schools there. Looks like people in Beaverton reported the same amounts that day as the rest of the metro area, 3-4".

 

I think you're probably confusing 2006-07 with 2007-08, a winter where there wasn't any real widespread ground covering event in the Portland area.

 

It didn't start snowing until Spring Break in 2008, that's pretty hard to confuse the two seasons. I remember '07-'08 was the same season as the Gale storm that slapped the coast pretty hard with one of their better wind events in recent years.