September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Blizzard777]

Thanks for sharing your initial ideas.

The hammer dropping in January sounds more frigid than a Nov/Dec cold shot. So I'll go with your first scenario. ❄

It’s time for January to get with the program!

[seattleweatherguy]

One year Jan will be cold again

[Timmy Supercell]

One year Jan will be cold again

 

Maybe in the 2020's Dec/Jan/Feb are all one happy family!

 

There's still the issue with November though... 1950's Nov is long gone.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Maybe in the 2020's Dec/Jan/Feb are all one happy family!

 

There's still the issue with November though... 1950's Nov is long gone.

1985 Nov could make a resounding return.

[Timmy Supercell]

1985 Nov could make a resounding return.

 

That one and 2010 were very promising ones. I swear though decades ago there were more November snowstorms than February snowstorms here in this town with one of our stations to prove this. It probably averaged 10 inches in 1950, now it's 4 inches.

[Kayla]

Nice to see big-time blocking returning in the models again.

 

Guess it's time to get the snow tires back on...

[Requiem]

Um...so, quick question. I'm not annoying anymore, am I? I know I rattled some people when I first joined about a year ago, so I hope that I'm a bit more...tempered, now. And I hope to keep that up through this winter even if Seattle or Eugene or freaking Redding get the lion's share.

[Timmy Supercell]

Um...so, quick question. I'm not annoying anymore, am I? I know I rattled some people when I first joined about a year ago, so I hope that I'm a bit more...tempered, now. And I hope to keep that up through this winter even if Seattle or Eugene or freaking Redding get the lion's share.

 

Nah you're good. Unless you want to be annoying 

[GHweatherChris]

Um...so, quick question. I'm not annoying anymore, am I? I know I rattled some people when I first joined about a year ago, so I hope that I'm a bit more...tempered, now. And I hope to keep that up through this winter even if Seattle or Eugene or freaking Redding get the lion's share.

Asking if you are not annoying anymore, is kinda annoying.

[Phil]

Maybe in the 2020's Dec/Jan/Feb are all one happy family!

 

There's still the issue with November though... 1950's Nov is long gone.

November 2010?

[Phil]

Um...so, quick question. I'm not annoying anymore, am I? I know I rattled some people when I first joined about a year ago, so I hope that I'm a bit more...tempered, now. And I hope to keep that up through this winter even if Seattle or Eugene or freaking Redding get the lion's share.

Huh? You’re fine. Just be yourself and have a blast. No need to fake an above the fray attitude if that’s not you. We already have Dewey for that.

[Front Ranger]

[Timmy Supercell]

November 2010?

 

Yeah I mentioned that one a few comments above. Lowlands had a tiny bit of snow, I think Hillsboro scored more than Portland did in that one (I recall a wet 2" before the arctic blast). Most of the snow was in the high elevations. We were about to move to K-Falls on the 30th, this place had around 15-18" which is massively impressive for this area before Turkey Day.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

November 2010?

Meh

[MossMan]

Chilly 55 degrees in Chelan currently.

[Omegaraptor]

00z GFS shows a pretty decent GoA ridge / western trough in the D8-D10 range. Similar to yesterday's 00z but not quite as strong on the trough. Also seems to slide more inland with not as much impact west of the Cascades.

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe in the 2020's Dec/Jan/Feb are all one happy family!

 

There's still the issue with November though... 1950's Nov is long gone.

Nov 28th, 2006 had a high of 23F here. That’s as cold as anything we’ve seen here since 1990 in any month.

[Omegaraptor]

As far as fall cold goes, Halloween of 2002 was a pretty impressive cold snap for southern OR. Unfortunately, that was probably better in terms of cold than anything the region saw that "winter". Here's some records from that day:

 

17ºF at Eugene

21ºF at Roseburg (really good climate lol)

19ºF at Medford

13ºF at Ashland

12ºF at Yreka

0ºF at Bend

-8ºF at Sunriver - coldest in the region?

-3ºF at Chemult

8ºF at Klamath Falls

 

Can't imagine it was very fun for kids trick-or-treating. Would be cool if this kind of stuff happened more often in fall though.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like a reload on the 0Z

[Kayla]

[Requiem]

Looks really cold on the GFS end of this month. Whoa.

[MossMan]

We have had several epicly cold and snowy November’s in my lifetime...Hopefully we will have another great one coming up!

[ShawniganLake]

[snow_wizard]

Long range GFS is ridiculously cold for late Sept/early Oct.

 

Looking really interesting.  Classic progression after the abnormal wetness we have seen recently.  I'm really liking our chances for this winter the way things are shaping up.

[ShawniganLake]

I see weatherbell went with their standard winter forecast, warm west and cold snowy east. The +1 to +3 anomalies over the PNW are pretty cool by their standards.

[Jesse]

Best ensemble support yet for the end of the month cool snap on the 00z GEFS.

[Jesse]

Cleared off nicely this evening, coolest of the fall so far. Already down to 53 after a high of 66.

[TT-SEA]

Looking really interesting. Classic progression after the abnormal wetness we have seen recently. I'm really liking our chances for this winter the way things are shaping up.

Starting to look like a good call with the progression.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Good stuff. Nice smoke on the deck. Cool and damp. 55F.

[TacomaWaWx]

49 in Tacoma, 51 currently here in silverdale. Encountered some fog on the drive up here. Getting ready to go into have some metal screws and plates removed from my leg this morning, should be fun.

[Timmy Supercell]

There was about another 1/4" rain yesterday at KLMT. Wunderground month to date precip is up to 1.67", 315% of normal September rainfall.

[Omegaraptor]

HIO got to 47. Coolest of the month.

[Timmy Supercell]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1985 Nov could make a resounding return.

That one and 2010 were very promising ones. I swear though decades ago there were more November snowstorms than February snowstorms here in this town with one of our stations to prove this. It probably averaged 10 inches in 1950, now it's 4 inches.

I'd rather get an Arctic Blast and snowstorm in November than in February. One thing I want to experience once in my lifetime is a White Thanksgiving.

[Omegaraptor]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I see weatherbell went with their standard winter forecast, warm west and cold snowy east. The +1 to +3 anomalies over the PNW are pretty cool by their standards.

That's fine. Last couple of times we got a cold and snowy winter they had the same forecast. I would be more afraid if they had us cold.

[Omegaraptor]

Cliff Mass is going warmer than average thanks to the Blob and greenhouse gas emissions.

[ShawniganLake]

That's fine. Last couple of times we got a cold and snowy winter they had the same forecast. I would be more afraid if they had us cold.

Yea. It was more a comment in the fact that JB has a habit of making eastern US click bait forecasts.

[MossMan]

Cliff Mass is going warmer than average thanks to the Blob and greenhouse gas emissions.

It was over before it even began.