Tom Posted October 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 Which system do you think is #1? Its awesome all models are showing snow. What a complete flip in the pattern!The current system entering the PAC NW which will track out of the N Rockies into the Upper MW this weekend... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 I’d consider taking a short road trip if this were likely to verify. Wow. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 I’d consider taking a short road trip if this were likely to verify. Wow.Yeah no kidding that's nuts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 And the whole group said, "aaahhh".... You can almost feel the excitement just from reading this morning.Sighs of relief are good to hear. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 Its gorgeous outside, w deep blue skies and a chilly temp of 48F. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 September 2019 was very warm across the area and most of Michigan. It was not a much above average the more north one went. Here is the September 2019 mean and the ranking across the major reporting locations. Grand Rapids 66.4° 8th warmest. Muskegon 66.4° 5th warmest. Kalamazoo 68.7° 2nd warmest. Lansing too much missing data. Detroit 68.6° 8th warmest. Flint 66.6° 5th warmest. Saginaw 65.4° 12th warmest. Alpena 60.2° 18th warmest. Sault Ste Marie 29.4° 17th warmest. And Marquette 57.4° but there it was just the 63rd warmest on record. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 Finally, clear blue skies here. The low here at my house was 44 and the official low was 47 at the airport. That official low of 47 is the coldest low so far this fall and the coldest low since May 21st Yesterday the H/L was 65/51 with 0.68” of rain fall. So far the total at GRR this month is 2.45” For today the average H/L is now down to 65/46. The record high is 87 set in 1951. The record low is 30 set in 1965. The warmest minimum is 65 set in 2013 and the record coldest maximum is 42 set in 1935. Last year the H/L was 80/44. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 September 2019 was very warm across the area and most of Michigan. It was not a much above average the more north one went. Here is the September 2019 mean and the ranking across the major reporting locations. Grand Rapids 66.4° 8th warmest. Muskegon 66.4° 5th warmest. Kalamazoo 68.7° 2nd warmest. Lansing too much missing data. Detroit 68.6° 8th warmest. Flint 66.6° 5th warmest. Saginaw 65.4° 12th warmest. Alpena 60.2° 18th warmest. Sault Ste Marie 29.4° 17th warmest. And Marquette 57.4° but there it was just the 63rd warmest on record.Yes, for my area, it was the warmest September as well (5th pl). Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 Attm, its still at 49F w a blend of clouds and sun. A little breezy as well. Colors are exploding on all trees also. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 Jaster- Got a bonfire going this weekend. Conditions will be excellent for that. Woohoooooooo!!! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 Jaster- Got a bonfire going this weekend. Conditions will be excellent for that. Woohoooooooo!!!I had one last night. It was awesome. Currently just 46° and low stratus! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 I can support westmjim's point. The September warmth for the region was definitely a bigger departure from normal the for areas south. My location definitely had some warm days mid month,but overall the warmth wasn't that memorable. The perpetual cloudy skies, unseasonably high relative humidity, and rain are what sticks out for September 2019 around northern Minnesota.I have had my furnace running half the time since late August due to the cool damp air. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 Another 1”+ of rain expected overnight into tomorrow. Getting the lawn aerated tomorrow afternoon, and throwing down some fertilizer and overseed. Pulled my cucumber, green onion and tomato plants out this morning. Fall cleanup may be fast and furious. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northland09 Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 Guess what I'm seeing for our area next week?! Granted, it's a week out and may just be flurries...but still! It's exciting to see the possibility of snow in the forecast again! Going to be working hard around the yard and in the garden this weekend. Get all hoses blown out and put away, stack firewood, pick and pull veggies/apples. Really wish it wouldn't be raining again tomorrow. Oh well, it will be a good time for canning.... 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 This should really kick color change into gear across the Northland. Hoping to get up there within the next 10 days. 6 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 Current conditions are mostly cloudy and quite chilly w temps at 53F. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 Low Sunday night - 64*. Light rain pmHigh Monday - 77*. Low - 56*. Talk about stoked.........LOL 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 Low Sunday night - 64*. Light rain pmHigh Monday - 77*. Low - 56*. Talk about stoked.........LOLI'm happy for you! You've been baking down there since June! Congrats friend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 Regarding the potential system late next Week: a change over to light snow is likely once the system begins to tap the colder air by latein the week. This system will need to be monitor as it has the potential of a significant freeze as far south as the centralPlains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFanOMA Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 OMA mentions the possibility of snow again LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Dry conditions continue into mid-week with the main focus in thelong-term centered around a large approaching trough with quite abit of cold air along with it. An associated surface cold frontis forecast to move through the area on Thursday with rain andpossible snow showers along with it as it quickly slides throughthe region. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 Its a very chilly night here in downtown Detroit. I was by the Detroit riverfront having dinner at a nearby restaurant and I gotta tell ya, the wind was biting. I must say that as I was walking to the parking garage, the air smelled like snow. Fun times ahead. Anyways, temp currently at 45F w mostly cloudy skies. Heading down in the upper 30s tanite. Brrr. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 Looking at a low of 40F by morning. Will exceed prior cold morning by 9 or 10 degs. I went from mowing my lawn a week ago wearing shorts and sweating to cutting with jeans and jacket this evening. Nice to be able to work outside without the sweating up. To show how strange this year's been, my lawn was dormant soooo long I now have dandelions popping out! It's like a 2nd spring the grass is so lush and thick again. Noticing more and more trees this evening easing into autumn shades. We don't get the brilliant bursting out like NMI. It's much more muted and yellows and various shades of brown dominate downstate along my route. You can see better colors if you find a true forested region such as in Allegan Cnty along the Kalamazoo river. Some of the most colorful trees are actually here in town, not out in the farmlands. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 Notice the footage of the storm in Chicago area. That's how storms used to be around SMI. 2011 since we had stuff like that around these parts. Also, amazing how far technology and storm tracking online has come since back then. Footnote - I was already living up in Traverse by then and don't remember this severe outbreak tbh. https://youtu.be/YYT1y0ojr-Q 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 How’s everyone doing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 How’s everyone doing? Ready to track snowstorms...in MI. How are you? Already below freezing an hour before midnight in several places. NMI just knows how cold is done! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 How’s everyone doing?I'm in Ohio. Can I complain now? 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 Currently at 42F under partly cloudy skies. Mid to upper 30s tanite for nighttime lows. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 I'm in Ohio. Can I complain now? Post of 2019 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 Next weeks chilly airmass might be even colder. Have to see how that plays, but as of now, its looking darn chilly next weekend. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 Currently at 42F under partly cloudy skies. Mid to upper 30s tanite for nighttime lows. Surprise frost on your pumpkins? (if you got 'em) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 Surprise frost on your pumpkins? (if you got 'em)No pumpkins yet. Also, temps could get near that frost level. No wind at all outside, under partly cloudy skies. Skies tanite should become completely clear , which will allow temps to plummet. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 TOL_Weather- are ya dipping into the 30s tanite? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 TOL_Weather- are ya dipping into the 30s tanite?I'm actually in Saginaw, MI for the next 2 nights on business. 30s look likely here. I think Toledo will stay in the low 40s. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 I'm actually in Saginaw, MI for the next 2 nights on business. 30s look likely here. I think Toledo will stay in the low 40s.Awesome.....Yup, Saginaw is a coldspot. Its probably about 3 hour drive or so right, maybe 4. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 NOAA: Thursday an upper level trough moves out of the Rockies and into thecentral Plains with a new surface low developing as a result.Current model runs have the system moving northeast into Ontariowith the cold front moving across the CWA sometime in the lateFriday into early Saturday morning range. Exact timing is stilluncertain with how far out this is. The best rain window iscurrently looking to be between 12Z Friday to 12Z Saturday with somehints at some heavy rain possible. Regardless of the how quickly thesystem moves, the air behind the front will be quite cold with someof the coldest temperatures so far this fall. Dare I say 40s for high temps next weekend??!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 I'm in Ohio. Can I complain now?Who r u 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 I know it sounds stupid, but after the last 3 months, I keep waiting for this to disappear. You know what? It just keeps getting stronger! This is going to be awesome. October "blue norther" of 2019 has a nice ring to it 'eh, my friends?Happy guy here. This is pure beauty in weather modeling. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 I know it sounds stupid, but after the last 3 months, I keep waiting for this to disappear. You know what? It just keeps getting stronger! This is going to be awesome.gfs_T2m_us_27.pnggfs_T2m_us_28.pnggfs_T2ma_us_28.png October "blue norther" of 2019 has a nice ring to it 'eh, my friends?Happy guy here. This is pure beauty in weather modeling.I've been thinking of you and Andie about this and how its coming together. I can only imagine what it's going to look like in the next 2-4 LRC cycles, esp during the heart of Winter. I mean, this trough penetrates all the way down into the GOM in the middle of October! I bet in future cycles N MX will see snow during the Winter. Something really crazy will happen this cold season. Just got the feeling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 Alright, alright, alright...it's finally that time of year where I begin taking notes of this new LRC pattern and how all of this is unfolding. It's an exciting time of year for me trying to study and figure out this wx pattern and share it with you all. Who's ready for tracking storms??? I think many of you who have gardens and that have farms will be in a frenzy this week trying to harvest what crop you have remaining. Looks like the growing season will be coming to an end by next weekend. As short as it was due to late planting, did the warm Sept help out? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 DMX reluctantly mentions the "S" word for late in the week..... Thursday into Friday...A deep trough and associated cold frontmove through the region during this time frame. The GFS is a bitfaster with the fropa and it has it clear the state by 00z Fridaywhile the ECMWF lags the front through by Friday morning. A niceshot of cold air behind of the front along with decent CAA eitherThursday night or throughout the day Friday depending on whichsolution plays out. The precipitation associated with the frontlooks mainly showery along and ahead of the front. The timing ofthe cold air and the deep moisture barely overlap and have lowconfidence with any "S" attm (too early in the season to mention).Even so, something to monitor as the week goes on how modelsevolve this system`s timing and location of precipitation and thusthe type of precipitation. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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