October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Which system do you think is #1? Its awesome all models are showing snow. What a complete flip in the pattern!

The current system entering the PAC NW which will track out of the N Rockies into the Upper MW this weekend...

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

I’d consider taking a short road trip if this were likely to verify. Wow.

[Stormhunter87]

I’d consider taking a short road trip if this were likely to verify. Wow.

Yeah no kidding that's nuts.

[OKwx2k4]

And the whole group said, "aaahhh"....

 

You can almost feel the excitement just from reading this morning.

Sighs of relief are good to hear.

[Niko]

Its gorgeous outside, w deep blue skies and a chilly temp of 48F.

[westMJim]

September 2019 was very warm across the area and most of Michigan.  It was not a much above average the more north one went. Here is the September 2019 mean and the ranking across the major reporting locations. Grand Rapids 66.4° 8^th warmest. Muskegon 66.4° 5^th warmest.  Kalamazoo 68.7° 2^nd warmest. Lansing too much missing data.  Detroit 68.6° 8^th warmest. Flint 66.6° 5^th warmest. Saginaw 65.4° 12^th warmest. Alpena 60.2° 18^th warmest. Sault Ste Marie 29.4° 17^th warmest.  And Marquette 57.4° but there it was just the 63^rd warmest on record.

[westMJim]

Finally, clear blue skies here.  The low here at my house was 44 and the official low was 47 at the airport. That official low of 47 is the coldest low so far this fall and the coldest low since May 21^st   Yesterday the H/L was 65/51 with 0.68” of rain fall.  So far the total at GRR this month is 2.45” For today the average H/L is now down to 65/46. The record high is 87 set in 1951.  The record low is 30 set in 1965. The warmest minimum is 65 set in 2013 and the record coldest maximum is 42 set in 1935. Last year the H/L was 80/44.

[Niko]

September 2019 was very warm across the area and most of Michigan.  It was not a much above average the more north one went. Here is the September 2019 mean and the ranking across the major reporting locations. Grand Rapids 66.4° 8^th warmest. Muskegon 66.4° 5^th warmest.  Kalamazoo 68.7° 2^nd warmest. Lansing too much missing data.  Detroit 68.6° 8^th warmest. Flint 66.6° 5^th warmest. Saginaw 65.4° 12^th warmest. Alpena 60.2° 18^th warmest. Sault Ste Marie 29.4° 17^th warmest.  And Marquette 57.4° but there it was just the 63^rd warmest on record.

Yes, for my area, it was the warmest September as well (5th pl).

[Niko]

Attm, its still at 49F w a blend of clouds and sun. A little breezy as well. Colors are exploding on all trees also.

[Niko]

Jaster- Got a bonfire going this weekend. Conditions will be excellent for that. Woohoooooooo!!!

[james1976]

Jaster- Got a bonfire going this weekend. Conditions will be excellent for that. Woohoooooooo!!!

I had one last night. It was awesome.

Currently just 46° and low stratus!

[Beltrami Island]

I can support westmjim's point. The September warmth for the region was definitely a bigger departure from normal the for areas south. My location definitely had some warm days mid month,but overall the warmth wasn't that memorable. The perpetual cloudy skies, unseasonably high relative humidity, and rain are what sticks out for September 2019 around northern Minnesota.

I have had my furnace running half the time since late August due to the cool damp air.

[St Paul Storm]

Another 1”+ of rain expected overnight into tomorrow. Getting the lawn aerated tomorrow afternoon, and throwing down some fertilizer and overseed. Pulled my cucumber, green onion and tomato plants out this morning. Fall cleanup may be fast and furious.

[Northland09]

Guess what I'm seeing for our area next week?!  Granted, it's a week out and may just be flurries...but still!  It's exciting to see the possibility of snow in the forecast again! Going to be working hard around the yard and in the garden this weekend.  Get all hoses blown out and put away, stack firewood, pick and pull veggies/apples. Really wish it wouldn't be raining again tomorrow. Oh well, it will be a good time for canning....

 

 

[jaster220]

This should really kick color change into gear across the Northland. Hoping to get up there within the next 10 days.

 

[Niko]

Current conditions are mostly cloudy and quite chilly w temps at 53F.

[Andie]

Low Sunday night - 64*. Light rain pm

High Monday - 77*.

Low - 56*.

 

Talk about stoked.........LOL

[OKwx2k4]

Low Sunday night - 64*. Light rain pm

High Monday - 77*.

Low - 56*.

 

Talk about stoked.........LOL

I'm happy for you! You've been baking down there since June! Congrats friend.

[St Paul Storm]

Regarding the potential system late next Week:

 

a change over to light snow is likely once the system begins to tap the colder air by late

in the week. This system will need to be monitor as it has the potential of a significant freeze as far south as the central

Plains.

[WeatherFanOMA]

OMA mentions the possibility of snow again

 

LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)

Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019

 

Dry conditions continue into mid-week with the main focus in the

long-term centered around a large approaching trough with quite a

bit of cold air along with it. An associated surface cold front

is forecast to move through the area on Thursday with rain and

possible snow showers along with it as it quickly slides through

the region.

[Niko]

Its a very chilly night here in downtown Detroit. I was by the Detroit riverfront having dinner at a nearby restaurant and I gotta tell ya, the wind was biting. I must say that as I was walking to the parking garage, the air smelled like snow. Fun times ahead. Anyways, temp currently at 45F w mostly cloudy skies. Heading down in the upper 30s tanite. Brrr.

[jaster220]

Looking at a low of 40F by morning. Will exceed prior cold morning by 9 or 10 degs. I went from mowing my lawn a week ago wearing shorts and sweating to cutting with jeans and jacket this evening. Nice to be able to work outside without the sweating up. To show how strange this year's been, my lawn was dormant soooo long I now have dandelions popping out! It's like a 2nd spring the grass is so lush and thick again. Noticing more and more trees this evening easing into autumn shades. We don't get the brilliant bursting out like NMI. It's much more muted and yellows and various shades of brown dominate downstate along my route. You can see better colors if you find a true forested region such as in Allegan Cnty along the Kalamazoo river. Some of the most colorful trees are actually here in town, not out in the farmlands.  

[jaster220]

Notice the footage of the storm in Chicago area. That's how storms used to be around SMI. 2011 since we had stuff like that around these parts. Also, amazing how far technology and storm tracking online has come since back then. Footnote - I was already living up in Traverse by then and don't remember this severe outbreak tbh. 

 

https://youtu.be/YYT1y0ojr-Q

[Money]

How’s everyone doing?

[jaster220]

How’s everyone doing?

 

Ready to track snowstorms...in MI. How are you? 

 

Already below freezing an hour before midnight in several places. NMI just knows how cold is done!

 

[Minny_Weather]

How’s everyone doing?

I'm in Ohio. Can I complain now?

[Niko]

Currently at 42F under partly cloudy skies. Mid to upper 30s tanite for nighttime lows.

[jaster220]

I'm in Ohio. Can I complain now?

 

Post of 2019      

[Niko]

Next weeks chilly airmass might be even colder. Have to see how that plays, but as of now, its looking darn chilly next weekend.

[jaster220]

Currently at 42F under partly cloudy skies. Mid to upper 30s tanite for nighttime lows.

 

Surprise frost on your pumpkins? (if you got 'em)

[Niko]

Surprise frost on your pumpkins? (if you got 'em)

No pumpkins yet. Also, temps could get near that frost level. No wind at all outside, under partly cloudy skies. Skies tanite should become completely clear , which will allow temps to plummet.

[Niko]

TOL_Weather- are ya dipping into the 30s tanite?

[Minny_Weather]

TOL_Weather- are ya dipping into the 30s tanite?

I'm actually in Saginaw, MI for the next 2 nights on business. 30s look likely here. I think Toledo will stay in the low 40s.

[Niko]

I'm actually in Saginaw, MI for the next 2 nights on business. 30s look likely here. I think Toledo will stay in the low 40s.

Awesome.....Yup, Saginaw is a coldspot.

 

Its probably about 3 hour drive or so right, maybe 4.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Thursday an upper level trough moves out of the Rockies and into the
central Plains with a new surface low developing as a result.
Current model runs have the system moving northeast into Ontario
with the cold front moving across the CWA sometime in the late
Friday into early Saturday morning range. Exact timing is still
uncertain with how far out this is. The best rain window is
currently looking to be between 12Z Friday to 12Z Saturday with some
hints at some heavy rain possible. Regardless of the how quickly the
system moves, the air behind the front will be quite cold with some
of the coldest temperatures so far this fall.

 

Dare I say 40s for high temps next weekend??!!

[Money]

I'm in Ohio. Can I complain now?

Who r u

[OKwx2k4]

I know it sounds stupid, but after the last 3 months, I keep waiting for this to disappear. You know what? It just keeps getting stronger! This is going to be awesome.

 

October "blue norther" of 2019 has a nice ring to it 'eh, my friends?

Happy guy here. This is pure beauty in weather modeling.

[Tom]

I know it sounds stupid, but after the last 3 months, I keep waiting for this to disappear. You know what? It just keeps getting stronger! This is going to be awesome.

gfs_T2m_us_27.png

gfs_T2m_us_28.png

gfs_T2ma_us_28.png

 

October "blue norther" of 2019 has a nice ring to it 'eh, my friends?

Happy guy here. This is pure beauty in weather modeling.

I've been thinking of you and Andie about this and how its coming together.  I can only imagine what it's going to look like in the next 2-4 LRC cycles, esp during the heart of Winter.  I mean, this trough penetrates all the way down into the GOM in the middle of October!  I bet in future cycles N MX will see snow during the Winter.  Something really crazy will happen this cold season.  Just got the feeling.

[Tom]

Alright, alright, alright...it's finally that time of year where I begin taking notes of this new LRC pattern and how all of this is unfolding.  It's an exciting time of year for me trying to study and figure out this wx pattern and share it with you all.  Who's ready for tracking storms???  I think many of you who have gardens and that have farms will be in a frenzy this week trying to harvest what crop you have remaining.  Looks like the growing season will be coming to an end by next weekend.  As short as it was due to late planting, did the warm Sept help out?

[Grizzcoat]

DMX reluctantly mentions the "S" word for late in the week.....

 

 

Thursday into Friday...A deep trough and associated cold front
move through the region during this time frame. The GFS is a bit
faster with the fropa and it has it clear the state by 00z Friday
while the ECMWF lags the front through by Friday morning. A nice
shot of cold air behind of the front along with decent CAA either
Thursday night or throughout the day Friday depending on which
solution plays out. The precipitation associated with the front
looks mainly showery along and ahead of the front. The timing of
the cold air and the deep moisture barely overlap and have low
confidence with any "S" attm (too early in the season to mention).
Even so, something to monitor as the week goes on how models
evolve this system`s timing and location of precipitation and thus
the type of precipitation.