October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Looks like next weeks cool batch might be even cooler than the one coming this week. Lows could be potentially in the 30s IMBY Friday morning and if not this week, then, next week stands a better chance as the airmass looks to be slightly colder.

[Andie]

[Tom]

After analyzing today's JMA weeklies, as well as the recent trends off the CFSv2 weeklies, I'm not gonna lie, I really like what I'm seeing. First off, both models are seeing a classic -NAO signal Week 2 in a prime location for our Sub Forum that will allow storm systems to dig into beasts. Let's see if the 2nd storm later next week evolves into something more significant.

 

Meantime, there are some very fascinating developments in the LR pattern off the models. Firstly, the JMA is seeing convection in the GOM/Caribbean fade abruptly into Week 2 which will likely shut down any tropical threats for the remainder of this season. Moving along, the central/northern PAC will come alive and this is a BIG clue down the road. This has important implications of the potential for late season re-curving Typhoons and that will set up an interesting wx pattern for November. Not to get to far ahead of myself, but I think we are heading for a wild ride over the next 4-6 weeks as the new LRC sets up.

 

Week 2...

 

 

 

Week 2 temps...

 

 

 

Week 3-4 temps....notice the tongue of "normal", (which will prob turn colder next run) anomalies coming down from western Canada into the heartland. This is exactly what I've envisioned for this season and where we would see our source region of cold to build early and often in Canada. Massive blocking is forecast to develop over the Arctic regions. Of note, the trough-like pattern farther off the west coast NW of Hawaii and near the Aleutian Islands paints a cold/stormy pattern for the eastern CONUS during the second half of the month. Finally, the suppressed pattern around Australia suggests the MJO to remain steady which is another LR clue that when this cycles in the winter....fun times ahead!

 

 

 

 

[Stormy]

The showers yesterday didn't appear that heavy on radar, but with high PWATS the rain was heavy at times with rates briefly over 2"/hr. at least three times here. Ended up with 1.42".

 

The next rain on Saturday doesn't look nearly as robust for my area now on WPC. Should be able to dry off next week. No real cold temps likely yet.

 

Yesterday at this time in 2003 it dropped down into the low 20°s already while northern Iowa fell into the teens!

[westMJim]

Here at my house I recorded 0.63” of rain from 7AM Yesterday to 7AM today in the last two day the total here is 2.72” and in the last 7 days 5.10” of rain had fallen here at my house. So far there has not been any flooding here but that is a lot of rain. At this time light rain is still falling and the current temperature is at 51°

 

Yesterdays H/L was 70 (reached just after midnight) and the low was 51. The official rain fall at GRR (midnight to midnight) was 1.10” and for the month of October so far the total at GRR is 1.76”   For today the average H/L is 66/46 the record high is 85 set in 1953. The record low is 23 set in 1974. The warmest minimum is 68 set in 2005 and the coldest maximum is 46 set in 1995.  Last year the H/L was a very warm 83/56.

 

Latest fall color report

https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/current-season-midwest-us/129-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-current-season/885-mw-foliage-report-7-2019

Last year at about the same time

https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/midwest-us-2018-reports/175-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive-2018/826-mw-foliage-report-8-2018

and for a comparison 2013

https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/midwest-us-2013-reports/134-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive-2013/476-mw-foliage-report-1-2019

Here just NW of Grand Rapids there is some color (more yellow then red) and some leaf drop.

[CentralNebWeather]

Dropped to 38 degrees so no where near frost.  NWS Hastings was correct, the stratus hung on too long and then about 7 AM the fog rolled in.  Visibility has dropped to near 0, but it is very localized.  Right now you can barely see across the street here.

[OKwx2k4]

Tom, you covered all the bases, I believe. I wrote a few days back that with the progression I have followed since September 1, the typical way out of it is for the pattern to literally, not transition, but it literally "snaps" as you echoed this morning. 4 days or so later, the models have exactly that. A major snap out of the old pattern and into the new.

 

I knew I'd seen this before and the links I used pretty well proved it. 8-10 days from today won't even look like the same month for most of us. "Snap"...instant autumn.

[Tom]

Winter has arrived in the Northwoods of N MN....Ash Lake had their first snows of the season...

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

ORD with another heavy rain event last evening....sheesh, no wonder I have standing water in my back yard...everything is so damp and soupy...really looking forward to some drier days ahead.

 

 

 

 

[Jaycee]

ORD with another heavy rain event last evening....sheesh, no wonder I have standing water in my back yard...everything is so damp and soupy...really looking forward to some drier days ahead.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was right in the bullseye of this last night. It was actually a pretty intense storm with a lot of lightning, definitely caught me off guard. We've had so much rain it feels like, it's honestly pretty unreal. Hope winter is like this also, i LOVE the temperature outside! It finally feels like fall, it's amazing. Fall in Chicago is so much better than fall in Nebraska!

[Tom]

I was right in the bullseye of this last night. It was actually a pretty intense storm with a lot of lightning, definitely caught me off guard. We've had so much rain it feels like, it's honestly pretty unreal. Hope winter is like this also, i LOVE the temperature outside! It finally feels like fall, it's amazing. Fall in Chicago is so much better than fall in Nebraska!

Glad to hear!  Yup, hoodie season is back...tomorrow morning should feel cool and crisp!

[james1976]

My event total for the past couple days was 2.17"

It's currently only 50° and a low stratus deck rolled in right when the sun came up. Love it

[Niko]

Currently at a chilly 52F w drizzle. Very raw day indeed.

[Tom]

First 12z GFS run of the season spitting out snow for the Plains/MW/GL's!

 

Edit: This is the storm that could have big potential if the blocking is rocking...

 

[Niko]

Man, its going to get darn right chilly late next week. Highs potentially in the upper 40s in spots and struggling to hit 50F or low 50s at best.

[james1976]

First 12z GFS run of the season spitting out snow for the Plains/MW/GL's!

 

Edit: This is the storm that could have big potential if the blocking is rocking...

 

LOVE ITTTTT!

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z CMC.  Ok then.

[Stormhunter87]

Hold the phone gfs showing snow here in the 11th. Go home gfs your drunk.

[St Paul Storm]

First 12z GFS run of the season spitting out snow for the Plains/MW/GL's!

 

Edit: This is the storm that could have big potential if the blocking is rocking...

 

I like this. On my son’s 3rd birthday nonetheless. What a dream that would be.

[jaster220]

Man, its going to get darn right chilly late next week. Highs potentially in the upper 40s in spots and struggling to hit 50F or low 50s at best.

 

psst.. Just north of Superior they are having mid-30s for afternoon highs buddy. It's getting waaaayyy too close for comfort. Early hard crash from summer to brrrrr! 

 

Tom's posting snowfall maps while our trees are still looking mostly like summer. We're missing (losing?) an entire season "formerly known as autumn" for crying out loud. Must be due to my switching my avatar pic 

[jaster220]

Going along with Tom's posts above, It's pretty obvious that this recent "summer's last stand" across the Plains/Lakes/OHV was like the last remaining bubble of true heat at the Mitt's latitude. Ofc, some of the coldest regions across the N HEMI have night at this hour, but they've been much colder than we and for longer. 

 

Just not a lot of warmth to be found out there

 

[OKwx2k4]

"Snap". Lol. That escalated quickly.

That was a perfect word. Another may be "crash".

 

Incredible GFS run.

[Andie]

Change is on our horizon despite the 95* out there. A long range forecast I was checking earlier actually has us in high 70's two weeks out. Some rain on the horizon as well.

It looks like summer is giving us its last gasps and I'll be able to walk around my own yard without nearly fainting after 10 minutes.

I'm ready. Bring on the cool.

[Minny_Weather]

Last night's EPS run trended colder but it's still seasonably warm. 

 

I don't believe the GFS with its snow deal, especially considering this would be the warm sector of a low that is well up into Canada. Higher elevation areas of NE/WY/CO have the best shot at flakes I think. Otherwise, the snow should stay way up into Canada. 

 

Other than the ptype, Euro and GFS are agreeing on temp anoms, with the Euro a tad warmer and more progressive with imminent moderation.

[CentralNebWeather]

From Bam Weather Twitter page.  This is a nice cold shot if it verifies for late next week.

 

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1179840580181995521?s=20

[Thunder98]

NE Wisconsin has seen yet another wet year. It seems like there is never droughts up in that area. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/grb/PrecipitationWatch

 

 

[james1976]

First bonfire of met Fall! Perfect evening for it. Hit 54 today is all for a high and I'm down to 50 already with mostly cloudy skies and a slight NW breeze. Diggin it

[Niko]

Mostly cloudy skies w temps in the upper 50s.

[Iowawx]

I finished with 3.36" of rain yesterday. 1.97" of that fell on Tuesday night. 1.39" fell after midnight Wednesday. The average rainfall for the month of October in Cedar Rapids is 2.62". Looks like we should get possibly 0.5"-1" of rain on Saturday. 

 

Today certainly felt much more like early October. The high was 56 degrees and the forecast low for tonight is 40 degrees. Hard to believe that it was 88 degrees back on Monday. 

[jaster220]

NE Wisconsin has seen yet another wet year. It seems like there is never droughts up in that area. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/grb/PrecipitationWatch

 

record NE WI precip 2019.PNG

 

record NE WI precip 2019 2.PNG

 

Those stats and this map have WOW factor! Since nature eventually balances things out, I'd say it's got some work to do. Odds are better than average as to which area should be targeted by any serious pattern flip.. 

 

[St Paul Storm]

I had no intentions of turning the furnace on. But my wife got home first this evening and it was 62F in the house. So she turned it on herself. And now it’s going to be on until May....

[OKwx2k4]

Already passed the low temp of September tonight with dropping ongoing. 62° and falling.

[Tom]

Happy Friday!  It's the coolest morning of the season for many of us this morning.  Sadly, as warm as it has been, this is pretty much normal for this time of year (47F).  Like it or not, we have to acclimate to the cooler nights/days as we move deeper into October, esp next weeks major shot of cold knifing down the Plains/Upper MW.  I stepped outside this morning and took in a deep breath of fresh, cool, crisp air and said to myself "Autumn is here"....

 

Yesterday's heavy rain has now placed Chicago in the Top 2 spot YTD...only 0.08" away from the #1 position...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today, marks the 200th day of spotless days:

 

 

 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 1 day
2019 total: 200 days (72%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)

 

[Tom]

#BlueNortherAlert....Folks, for the second year in a row, the "Central CONUS Show" will steal the show to open up October and what a fascinating pattern we are heading into.  Nearly every model now is starting to show massive blocking in all the right places that will likely influence the pattern and the potential large storm later next week.  The GFS was the first to sniff out some snow, but now every model is showing it.  Not sure why you would discount this as a viable outcome given the amplification of the pattern that is forthcoming. 

 

Needless to say, the 00z Euro is now on board (1-2 Feet in SW MN) and with a vast amount of early season cold building up in W/SW Canada, this storm in my opinion, will prob lay down some snow for someone in the Plains/Upper MW/W GL's.  How much snow falls and where is TBD, however, this is likely Storm #2 in the new LRC pattern.  I like.

[snowstorm83]

 

 

Strong front moves in on

Thursday with rain. 00z models are now suggesting a closed upper

low develops as the trough moves across the Rockies. Certainly,

the coldest air of the season plunges into the area for Friday.

And both models, while previously dry, both the EC and GFS are

now showing some snow potential now too across the area. While

Friday is just beyond the scope of this forecast package, it`s

something we`ll be watching closely. Fall can be a season of

extreme transition.

 

OAX mentioning snow in their AFD this morning, maybe a few wet flakes by late next week 

[Andie]

Wow, Tom, you early-bird! Followed up by a close 2nd by snowstorm83 ! Everyone is excited about the coming cool weather.

I'm no exception.

 

We'll have low 90's until Sunday when a front finally lopes into way into Texas.

Sunday we'll see light showers and temps in the 80's. The week will give us a mix of high 70's and 80's and I am so stoked ! Texans are ready for a break from the heat. We even see some scattered showers.

Hello Fall!

[Minny_Weather]

OAX mentioning snow in their AFD this morning, maybe a few wet flakes by late next week 

Was surprised to see that speculation from OAX until I saw that Van DeWald wrote that. He's easily the most forward-looking NWS met I know. One of my favorites at OAX too since the Bousteads left.

[Clinton]

As the LRC is setting up I am excited about the direction of the AO and NAO towards the middle of the month.

[james1976]

#BlueNortherAlert....Folks, for the second year in a row, the "Central CONUS Show" will steal the show to open up October and what a fascinating pattern we are heading into. Nearly every model now is starting to show massive blocking in all the right places that will likely influence the pattern and the potential large storm later next week. The GFS was the first to sniff out some snow, but now every model is showing it. Not sure why you would discount this as a viable outcome given the amplification of the pattern that is forthcoming.

 

Needless to say, the 00z Euro is now on board (1-2 Feet in SW MN) and with a vast amount of early season cold building up in W/SW Canada, this storm in my opinion, will prob lay down some snow for someone in the Plains/Upper MW/W GL's. How much snow falls and where is TBD, however, this is likely Storm #2 in the new LRC pattern. I like.

Which system do you think is #1? Its awesome all models are showing snow. What a complete flip in the pattern!

[Minny_Weather]

Finally turned off the A/C for good I think. First morning where it truly feels like Fall is in the air. 50.7*F.