October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Current conditions are cloudy w temps at 60F and there is some rain to my west arriving soon. Its going to be a wet afternoon here. Flying in to Boston early today and coming back home later tanite for a business trip and I tell ya, the weather there is not much better. Looking like a bumpy ride going and coming ugh!

[Niko]

Another 0.35" overnight. Event total 1.67" so far. Maybe a bit more today.

Whats your average high and low for October

[East Dubzz]

Man, how many times have you posted something like this over the last few months?  Your parents hit the jackpot this summer/fall.

 

Seems that way. It's been crazy. Luckily they're in an area that doesn't really see flooding or anything.

[Iowawx]

I got 2.65” of rain last night. That is much more than I was expecting. Looks like we will get some more rain later today.

 

Part of my backyard is still underwater. Photos are from 8:00am.

[CentralNebWeather]

We opened up the windows last night to air out the house.  Went to bed without shutting them,  woke up to a 55 degree house.  That is a little shock to the system.  Did not turn the heat on.   I wait as long as humanly possible to do that.

[bud2380]

I got 2.65” of rain last night. That is much more than I was expecting. Looks like we will get some more rain later today.

 

Part of my backyard is still underwater. Photos are from 8:00am.

Wow, looks like you could canoe through that.  Ha ha.  

[St Paul Storm]

Another day, another massive rain shield headed in. Let’s save some this for Nov/Dec.

 

52F with a chill of 48F currently. I’m lighting the pilot on my fireplace tonight. I can’t turn the furnace on yet though.

[Minny_Weather]

The Southern end of the rain shield has actually shifted South and now the cutoff is right over my apartment. Great preview for snow season I guess.

[Iowawx]

Another round of rain is on the way later today as a trailing disturbance moves through the region.  It should be light up here, but there could be a band of heavier rain to the south.

Looking at radar now, there is a big area of moderate rain south of Des Moines that is moving northeast. Looks like Cedar Rapids could get some decent rains today with the band moving in. 

[jaster220]

Though my location only recieved 1.75" of rain- the DSM airport just 15 miles or so E received 3.59" for OCT 1st.  That is amazing as it doubled the daily record. 

Yearly precip stands at 42.91". Over 13" above the norm to date. And in 10th place yearly with nearly 3 months left.

Interestingly - since 1879- the  top 7 wettest years at DSM have occurred in the past 16 years. Call it what you want but I believe not so much in  AGW - but in water vapor increase due to ocean heat content. Before you critic- you should know that 2 of the top 5 wettest years ever occurred  in 1881 (TOP at 56.81" and 1882 5th at 47.60).  something seriously was going on in 1881 and 1882 with the climate and sure wasn't C02-- but maybe water vapor from warm oceans? -- certainly not Krakatoa as it erupted in 1883. 

 

I wasn't aware..thx Grizz

[jaster220]

Another day, another massive rain shield headed in. Let’s save some this for Nov/Dec.

 

52F with a chill of 48F currently. I’m lighting the pilot on my fireplace tonight. I can’t turn the furnace on yet though.

 

How 'bout DJFM - final answer! 

[jaster220]

The Southern end of the rain shield has actually shifted South and now the cutoff is right over my apartment. Great preview for snow season I guess.

 

This was one of those mornings when a couple counties N or S would make a huge difference. That stuff drives me nuts!

[jaster220]

While mby sits at +300% departure for the past 7 days, the 94 corridor was actually split N and S by much heavier drenching storms. 

 

 

All things have to balance in nature, so hopefully we do that when it matters most (snow season)

[james1976]

Still sitting at 57. Looks a large area of rain moving in. Might not even hit 60 today!

[Minny_Weather]

Still feels like an armpit outside. The front is taking its sweet time. We were supposed to hit our daily high at 11:00 and it's 13:00 right now. 78.8*F, DP 68*F.

[CentralNebWeather]

We sit at 49 degrees with a heavy mist at 12:15 PM.  No wind which is odd here.  

[Minny_Weather]

Temp is now slowly dropping. And I mean SLOWLY. 77.2*F. Rain has started

[BrianJK]

Another day, another massive rain shield headed in. Let’s save some this for Nov/Dec.

 

52F with a chill of 48F currently. I’m lighting the pilot on my fireplace tonight. I can’t turn the furnace on yet though.

Thought the same about saving some for winter. Things have a way of evening out and you wonder if after all this, things end up drying out this winter

[Stormy]

Raining heavily right now.

[Beltrami Island]

I could really go for a ridge centered over Montana/Saskatchewan and trough centered over Ohio leaving me in the middle with dry weather and dry air and hi/lows of about  65/30 until about November 10.  It is  not going to happen but I can dream right?

[jaster220]

Thought the same about saving some for winter. Things have a way of evening out and you wonder if after all this, things end up drying out this winter

 

How was your 02-03 winter precip-wise?

[jaster220]

Going to end up with ~0.5" from today's frontal wave. Not bad considering. I do believe it out-performed my NWS grid-cast. Temps much more autumn like as well with 61F. Yesterday at this time it was 85F.

 

[Andie]

All those zeros south......rub it in !

[Tom]

Changes are brewing and beginning to show up in the models over the next 2 weeks, esp today's 12z EPS which is suggesting re-surging shots of cold air out of Canada post system (s).  My gut feeling all along has been steadfast, using analogs alone for this month was probably not a wise idea, given the fact that there are many conflicting signals in the oceans, atmosphere, strat, etc.  Models continue to miss the blocking in all the places that support cold, not warmth.  Today's 12z EPS is a prime example in the 6-10 day and how much colder it has trended over the past couple days.

 

Yesterday's Day 6-10...

 

 

 

Today's Day 5-9...and look where it's targeting the colder look...interesting pattern.  I heard last Thursday's Euro Weeklies were supposed to be blow torch for this target period.  I doubt it's going to verify.  Even the GEFS are trending colder and wetter across our Sub.  I like the developments in the model world and esp a time when the new LRC is developing.

 

 

12z GEFS Day 6-10...

 

 

 

 

I've shown my reasoning why I believed there will be more cold in our pattern than warmth given the locations of where 10mb/30mb strat warming pools are growing and also what the GEFS 10mb forecasts have been showing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now, check this out, and this is by far the most intriguing Long Range clue that the CFSv2 is showing way out in Lala Land.  It is my opinion, that the models can forecast the higher levels of the atmosphere a lot better than the mid & lower(surface) levels.  Is it because there is less weight higher up in the atmosphere/stratosphere???  I'm not sure, but I've provided many examples over the years how this can be useful.  In any case, check out the displaced Polar Vortex in the month of November (mind you, I'm forecasting a warm November)....I mean, this is a Big deal if that happens as it would verify an early major SSW event which looks to happen the following month in December if the model is right....

 

 

November...

 

 

 

 

 

December...text book displaced Polar Vortex and in a prime location to seed the "Siberian Express" into N.A.  Is Low Solar contributing into the model data???  Very interesting set of circumstances over the next several weeks and months.  

 

 

[BrianJK]

How was your 02-03 winter precip-wise?

Tom might be better off answering this if you are referring to mine/his current location. I was not living in the Chicago area during that time.

[Stormy]

Rained around 0.70” so far today with a little more just south. Looking like more to come. Would’ve rather had last evenings type of rain.

[East Dubzz]

Another 0.18" of rain on my parents' rain gauge today. 

[Andie]

Currently 95*.

 

Yeah, I know.

[james1976]

Loving the looks of that Tom! Thanks for the posts. Man what a flip. September was very summer like and just like that, it's very fall like. Today the temp didn't budge. Mid to upper 50s all day with low clouds and rain moved in all afternoon. Picked up another 0.40" this afternoon. I wish this frontal system was the beginning of the new LRC!

[jaster220]

Looks like @CentralNeb is the first member in our Sub that is placed under a Frost Advisory for later tonight....

 

Won't be too much longer and someone in here will be reading this too 

 

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

300 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

 

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054-030200-

Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-Western Walsh County-

Including the cities of Cando, Langdon, Fort Totten, Maddock,

Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville,

Aneta, Tolna, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin

300 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

 

...First Snowfall of the Season...

 

Rain is expected to mix or turnover to snow tonight across the

Devils Lake basin. Grassy surfaces may see some light

accumulations by morning. Travel impacts are not expected with

this event.

[Minny_Weather]

The temp gradient is pretty insane. I'm the cold spot at 60°F, Dayton, just 2 hours South of me, is at 89°F.

[Iowawx]

An additional 0.35" of rain so far today has brought my total up to 3.00" since 8:00pm yesterday. We are getting a nice steady rain now so we are still adding on to that total. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like @CentralNeb is the first member in our Sub that is placed under a Frost Advisory for later tonight....

NWS Hastings not overly impressed now. Will leave advisory up but say low stratus may hang on too long. May just be patchy frost. Better chances up towards Broken Bow to North Platte.

[East Dubzz]

Well.. shocker here... moderate rainfall again.

[Hawkeye]

I received a solid 0.46" today.

 

The locations just north of Cedar Rapids that received 3-4+" last night received another 1.0-1.4" today.

[East Dubzz]

I received a solid 0.46" today.

 

The locations just north of Cedar Rapids that received 3-4+" last night received another 1.0-1.4" today.

Parents rain gauge got 0.95” today. Crazy.

[Tom]

I was awaken last night by the rain pouring down.  There was a Flash Flood warning that was issued for the north side of town.  Plenty of flood viaducts and underpasses in the city where some spots picked up over 2" of rain.  I picked up another 1.23" of additional rain.  Crazy how much it's been raining around here.

[Tom]

I am preparing several LR posts this morning but I'd like to share with you how we literally snap out of the "old" LRC into the "new" LRC starting late this weekend.  Look at the animation below and notice the pattern in the SE and SW U.S.  The resilient SER that has dominated the wx pattern for months on end literally shifts from east to west in a matter of 1-2 days starting today,  retrograding west into the desert SW right when Day 1 of the LRC likely begins!  Pretty incredible.

 

Not to mention, our 1st storm coming out of the N Rockies is on schedule but there isn't the amount of blocking I was hoping for which allows this storm to track across the northern tier of our Sub and explode into a strong Hudson Bay storm.  However, the next big ticket storm (10th-13th) is on deck and there are some Major colder changes overnight and verify what I've been leaning towards.  The Bearing Sea Rule is going to shine once again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

As mentioned above, the models have significantly trended Much colder as we progress through the next 2 weeks.  Confidence is growing that the nearly all of our Sub will be effected by a significant Autumn CF early next week.  #Frost/FreezeAlert  #PumpkinSpiceLatteSeason

 

The way the pattern is setting up is raising my confidence that it will deliver a very cold early season airmass down the heart of the Central CONUS.  Just like last year, right about the same time, many folks across the Plains/MW/GL's will have their first Frost/Freeze's of the season.  Check out this animation below and it looks like our seasons first "blue norther" is coming into fruition.  For our southern members, your patience is finally going to be rewarded.  Autumn is coming....

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

What a raw morning outside currently at 51F w rain.