October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

The late-week/weekend upper midwest storm is really slowing down on the models as they try to cut off the energy more.  A few runs ago the GFS had low 30s here by Friday morning.  Tonight's Euro has 70s across eastern Iowa midday Friday.  The Euro never even gets freezing air into my area.  It gets cold Saturday/Sunday, but strong wind, and I assume some clouds, keeps the air above freezing.  That would be nice.

[Tom]

In terms of the track of the late week potentially historic (2nd in the span of 2 weeks) October snowfall, blocking across SE Canada and the feature just off the EC are growing stronger which aids in a "road block" allowing for the storm system to track farther NW, slow down dramatically and occlude. Nonetheless, this is quite a storm system that we will be tracking this week.  First Storm Thread of the season???  I think so.

 

Overnight 00z Euro is now suggesting a Dakota's special....GFS is a bit farther east and still hits parts of MN...should be a fun week tracking this beast.  One thing is for certain, blocking is becoming a big part of this new LRC which I believe will wreck havoc in the modeling.  I personally believe it will be one of those seasons of big shifts in storm track from the models.  This system should be a good early "test" to see which model performs better.

 

00z GFS...

 

 

06z...

 

[westMJim]

Here at my house I recorded 0.15” of rain, it looks like the official rain fall at GRR will come in at 0.9”. With clear skies the current temperature here at my house is 54°  The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 58/41. For today the average H/L is now down to 64/45. The record high is 87 set in 2007 and the record low is 28 set in 2003. The warmest minimum is 68 set in 2007 and the record coldest maximum is 43 set in 1964. Last year the H/L was 71/55.

[Northland09]

In terms of the track of the late week potentially historic (2nd in the span of 2 weeks) October snowfall, blocking across SE Canada and the feature just off the EC are growing stronger which aids in a "road block" allowing for the storm system to track farther NW, slow down dramatically and occlude. Nonetheless, this is quite a storm system that we will be tracking this week.  First Storm Thread of the season???  I think so.

 

Overnight 00z Euro is now suggesting a Dakota's special....GFS is a bit farther east and still hits parts of MN...should be a fun week tracking this beast.  One thing is for certain, blocking is becoming a big part of this new LRC which I believe will wreck havoc in the modeling.  I personally believe it will be one of those seasons of big shifts in storm track from the models.  This system should be a good early "test" to see which model performs better.

 

 

06z...

 

 

Holy tamoly!!!  Planning on going up to the cabin this coming weekend, and if this pans out like it shows on the model, I'll be seeing the 9.2 inches or there abouts!  Even around home it'll still be around the 5-6 inch mark!    We can only wait and see...but until then, as much as I didn't quite want to yet, maybe I should take my shovels out as a just in case...

[MinnyLakes]

0z GFS and 0z Euro were fairly close to one another, although 0z Euro had a much sharper snow line cutoff, with the Red River Valley only receiving about 4-6" of snow (except for extreme northern), but west of there receiving 20+". We'll see what today's updates look like.

[Niko]

Currently at 61F under mostly cloudy skies.

[Niko]

Looks like the cold has modified somewhat for late next week.

[Niko]

I ended up with 0.59" of rain today. Actually wasn't expecting more than about two tenths after seeing the radar this morning, but storms kept developing on the south end and I thought it was interesting watching the radar. The best cells just missed as usual with a narrow band of 1"> totals a few miles to the northwest.

My rainfall last night dissipating as it was approaching my area. They were calling for heavier rainfall previously, but it ended up being nothing more than a few showers as time approaached.

[Tom]

Fired up the season's 1st storm thread...nice way to open up storm tracking season, ay???

 

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2107-109-1013-plainsupper-mw-powerful-winter-storm/

[Minny_Weather]

Colors are popping up around Central Michigan too. Went up to Cadillac this weekend, I took this picture near there.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Colors are popping up around Central Michigan too. Went up to Cadillac this weekend, I took this picture near there.

Wow! I love the train! That's awesome. What a picture.

 

I'm secretly a train engine nut. Lol. Working and living near railroads all your life has that effect on a guy. What can I say?

[westMJim]

It is a great sunny day with a mild temperature of 68 here at my house. I am sure this is later then usual but I am doing some yard work and now have put the cover on the ac unit so it is now shut down until late next spring. Well this short break is now over and it is now time to cut the grass as with all the rain it has really gown it the last few days.

[Minny_Weather]

Wow! I love the train! That's awesome. What a picture.

 

I'm secretly a train engine nut. Lol. Working and living near railroads all your life has that effect on a guy. What can I say?

I'm a railfan! Taking pictures of trains is my main hobby. Weather is just a side hobby.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm a railfan! Taking pictures of trains is my main hobby. Weather is just a side hobby.

Well, heck yeah! That's awesome! If I had a great camera, I'd have been doing that for the last 15 years.

 

I've gotten to load/unload countless tankers, hopper cars, gondolas and boxcars over the years. Standing 2 feet from an engine when it powers up and shakes the ground is truly awesome. The rails and railmen carry America and have for over 160 years.

 

I've gotten to see KCS 1 a few times. She's a beautiful old streamliner.

 

I'd imagine you have some beautiful pictures.

[CentralNebWeather]

My area had been placed in a Frost Advisory overnight. Lows could get close to 32. Hard freeze looks likely later this week.

[OKwx2k4]

Its fall now.

[Andie]

So glad for you.

 

It's on my doorstep right now. Thunderstorms to my NW. I may not see rain, but they have a nice outflow boundary and will blow in in an hour or less. Isolated strong rain cells. And temps....temps! Will dip tonight to 59*. Am I dreaming?

 

Temps tomorrow 79* with a low of 54*. Too good to be true.

[Niko]

Colors are popping up around Central Michigan too. Went up to Cadillac this weekend, I took this picture near there.

 

I'm a railfan! Taking pictures of trains is my main hobby. Weather is just a side hobby.

Great colors!

 

I like trains as well, especially going on trips.

[Niko]

Currently at 61F under mostly clear skies. Its beautiful outside.

[jaster220]

Nice to see those poor drought-stricken areas getting some much needed rains this evening - finally!

 

[Andie]

The rain was hit or miss here in North Texas. I was a miss, but it was nice to hear thunder and enjoy the cooler breeze.

On our way down to 72* tonight. A low of 54* tommorow night after anhigh of 79*.

 

Sounds like heaven.

[Minny_Weather]

The rain was hit or miss here in North Texas. I was a miss, but it was nice to hear thunder and enjoy the cooler breeze.

On our way down to 72* tonight. A low of 54* tommorow night after anhigh of 79*.

 

Sounds like heaven.

Congrats on finally crossing the finish line down there!

[Niko]

Nice to see those poor drought-stricken areas getting some much needed rains this evening - finally!

 

20191006 9 pm Surf Map.jpg

If it were late November or December, I would be very excited about the position of that low.

[jaster220]

JB..

 

WPAC typhoon looks like a classic, but like Dorian for the US, may be off its peak and may not make landfall on the main island of Japan as it recurves, Big ticket event tho, as recurving typhoons show Pacific pattern that sets up troughs progressing to the east many times

[Niko]

Looks like a dry week coming up and fairly pleasant temps, until next weekend when a CF will arrive and provide some wet weather, followed by much colder air.

[Tom]

Yesterday was a picture perfect early October day and today will be a "Marvelous Monday" with sunny skies, calm winds, temps in the upper 60's!  You can't ask for a better stretch of weather for this upcoming week and we'll finally be able to dry out.

 

 

 

[Tom]

If your as stoked as I am about this developing wx pattern across N.A, when you take a step back and analyze the broader look at the entire Northern Hemisphere, you have to appreciate what is coming together for what I foresee to be a phenomenal ride this month.  IMHO, this new LRC pattern may rival what last year's produced for our Sub Forum based on the data I'm seeing at this stage.  I'd like to start off this work week and focus on storm target dates for the remainder of this month. 

 

Once we get passed this weeks likely historic October winter storm across the Upper MW, our attn will turn towards our southern members as there is a slight signal at this range for a trailing piece of energy coming out of the 4 corners along the trailing CF around the 13th/14th.  This should effect our southern members and if it holds together it may track up the OHV. 

 

Following this system, a more important storm is due between the 18th-21st by using the EAR (re-curving Typhoon).  My early thoughts on this storm potential is for a S Plains/MW "cutter" storm track.  Possible 2nd Winter Storm???  I see a cold component with this system along with some early indication of strong blocking in all the right locations once again.  This may be another highlight storm system of this new developing pattern.  It does not end here as some models are indicating another favorable pattern for a re-curving tropical W PAC system and a storm due here between the (24th-27th).  Finally, what could be the one that puts the "icing on the cake" for a wild October ride, one that ushers in a major trough over the eastern CONUS is due around Halloween or a few days just after.  The forthcoming several weeks have the central CONUS in the spotlight.  I'm both excited and anxious to see how this all unfolds.  Remember, the CFSv2 and most other climate models painted a very "wet" pattern across our Sub Forum, therefore the path to which these forecasted storm systems I am predicting to take, will make sense in the end if they end up coming into fruition.

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

Remember when the Euro weeklies showed a blow torch for October? Haha

[james1976]

DMX mentions a killing freeze possible Friday night and possible snow showers Friday pm/evening ☺

[Grizzcoat]

Remember when the Euro weeklies showed a blow torch for October? Haha

i do think there will be Indian Summer for many though around the 3rd week of OCT

[Minny_Weather]

i do think there will be Indian Summer for many though around the 3rd week of OCT

There should be, especially East of the Mississippi as a ridge pokes back up. It won't be permanent. 

[Andie]

A lovely, clear 54* this morning. High of 74*.

I may spend much of the day on the patio just soaking it in.

 

This weather always makes me feel alive and creative.

Makes me want to start this next book.

I'm hoping we get some rain soon now. We need it.

[jaster220]

If your as stoked as I am about this developing wx pattern across N.A, when you take a step back and analyze the broader look at the entire Northern Hemisphere, you have to appreciate what is coming together for what I foresee to be a phenomenal ride this month.  IMHO, this new LRC pattern may rival what last year's produced for our Sub Forum based on the data I'm seeing at this stage.  I'd like to start off this work week and focus on storm target dates for the remainder of this month. 

 

Once we get passed this weeks likely historic October winter storm across the Upper MW, our attn will turn towards our southern members as there is a slight signal at this range for a trailing piece of energy coming out of the 4 corners along the trailing CF around the 13th/14th.  This should effect our southern members and if it holds together it may track up the OHV. 

 

Following this system, a more important storm is due between the 18th-21st by using the EAR (re-curving Typhoon).  My early thoughts on this storm potential is for a S Plains/MW "cutter" storm track.  Possible 2nd Winter Storm???  I see a cold component with this system along with some early indication of strong blocking in all the right locations once again.  This may be another highlight storm system of this new developing pattern.  It does not end here as some models are indicating another favorable pattern for a re-curving tropical W PAC system and a storm due here between the (24th-27th).  Finally, what could be the one that puts the "icing on the cake" for a wild October ride, one that ushers in a major trough over the eastern CONUS is due around Halloween or a few days just after.  The forthcoming several weeks have the central CONUS in the spotlight.  I'm both excited and anxious to see how this all unfolds.  Remember, the CFSv2 and most other climate models painted a very "wet" pattern across our Sub Forum, therefore the path to which these forecasted storm systems I am predicting to take, will make sense in the end if they end up coming into fruition.

 

I appreciate your nice morning write-up Tom! Wrt the underlined, hopefully, after an early period of hyper-activity and snowstorms we don't get last winter's (7) week lull in the action. As for a 2nd winter that was as good as if not better than the first, 78-79 and 08-09 would be the better images in my memory around these parts. 

[Niko]

Currently mostly cloudy and 55F.

[Niko]

Yesterday was a picture perfect early October day and today will be a "Marvelous Monday" with sunny skies, calm winds, temps in the upper 60's!  You can't ask for a better stretch of weather for this upcoming week and we'll finally be able to dry out.

 

 

 

Here comes the cold by the weekend. Get those hoodies ready Tom.

[westMJim]

This morning is a good example of how on clear calm nights the temperature can depend a lot on location. I have two sensors that I use. They are both 5’ off the ground and protected from the sun as best as I can provide (that affects daytime temperatures more than night time).  Anyway I have one spot in my yard that generally reads colder then the other. (And yes I have swapped sensors to make sure that it was not the sensor reading differently). OK the official low at GRR this morning looks to be 50° but here at my yard the “warm” location had a low of 44.4° and the “cold” location had a low of 43.1° We will see how the low tomorrow morning goes.

[Tom]

I appreciate your nice morning write-up Tom! Wrt the underlined, hopefully, after an early period of hyper-activity and snowstorms we don't get last winter's (7) week lull in the action. As for a 2nd winter that was as good as if not better than the first, 78-79 and 08-09 would be the better images in my memory around these parts.

My pleasure. The storm train that’s anticipated is quite intriguing. A slight SER should keep storms from cutting to far NW mid/late month. November will be a different story I think as I’m expecting a major trough-like pattern to open up next month. Could be one of those “Polar Vortex” exhibits of the LRC.

[jaster220]

My pleasure. The storm train that’s anticipated is quite intriguing. A slight SER should keep storms from cutting to far NW mid/late month. November will be a different story I think as I’m expecting a major trough-like pattern to open up next month. Could be one of those “Polar Vortex” exhibits of the LRC.

 

Looking at the favored analog seasons (and last season for that matter) they all featured wintry Novembers. 2004 had the nice synoptic system, 2013 was more about LES in far SWMI, 2014 was the massive LES hit for west side of GR, and last year was pretty much a combo of all that. Good times!    

[Niko]

Looking at this weeks weather for mby, it looks beautiful, w tons of sunshine and milder temps. Readings will be in the 60s and even a few pockets of 70s. Wont last though as temps will plummet ova the weekend.

[jaster220]

Looking at this weeks weather for mby, it looks beautiful, w tons of sunshine and milder temps. Readings will be in the 60s and even a few pockets of 70s. Wont last though as temps will plummet ova the weekend.

 

Yep, stellar Oct wx week on tap. Great to get any chores done where decent temps are needed.