October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Just came back from the gym and man, you just don't wanna go inside. Absolutely gorgeous. Sunny skies and a temp of 63F.

[james1976]

Already 66. Gonna end up well into the 70s

[jaster220]

Whoa! Bottom dropping out tonight. Call is for 34F and Jack Frost to pay a visit. Glad I put my pumpkins out this evening. 

 

Good luck! Hope you score some frost tanite amigo!

 

Frost mission FAIL (at least for mby). Wasn't even below 40F when I headed out, then the airport dropped to 37F but after sunrise so not likely that there was even a frost out there.  As said tho, plenty of time to get cold. I would like to see the bugs knocked down a bit. 

[Niko]

Frost mission FAIL (at least for mby). Wasn't even below 40F when I headed out, then the airport dropped to 37F but after sunrise so not likely that there was even a frost out there.  As said tho, plenty of time to get cold. I would like to see the bugs knocked down a bit. 

Exactly...no need to rush things here. I don't even wanna see a flake until end of November.

[jaster220]

Last time I recall seeing something like this was the winter 09-10 I think....I lived in Pennsylvania at that time and I remember in February we got about 30-40" of snow from two storms in a week. Only 3 big storms that year but I think it was a top 5 winter for snow...But yes, if this verifies, it should be consistently cold. Not sure what implications this will have for precip. though. Depends more on what happens with the SER...If the SER continues to weaken as it looks here, then maybe lots of smaller snow events (at least for western part of Midwest), but too early to say yet really. Could potentially be really good for those of you in the eastern part of the forum I think, depending on other patterns.

 

I think your right about ‘09-‘10 bc I remember that year having temps in the 20’s for long stretches and the Hudson Bay ridge was dominant that season. I think we’ll see exhibits of this during the cold season. Maybe plenty chances of Miller B storm tracks? I find it a very plausible storm track given the fact that the SW ridge will pop frequently and the placement of the HP near or just N of the GL’s should create a favorable storm track through the MW/OHV.

 

Uggh @ 09-10 analogs. Not the worst winter for my locale, but just like 02-03 it featured a primary track that took the bigger storms "just" SE of me. I'm not sure which is more frustrating, be missed just NW like last winter, or just SE like 09-10. Both are a serious tease. I'm keeping my torch lit for a better outcome (track further north) than those two seasons, even if other facets turn out to be similar. I've seen 09-10 showing up in some analog lists based on summer rainfall, etc.  2004-05 was somewhat similar with a couple good hits mixed in with a lot of near misses. 

[Niko]

https://foxsanantonio.com/news/local/finally-cold-front-to-bring-cooler-weather-to-south-texas-next-week

 

[Clinton]

The 21st time frame continues to show quite the system, maybe a little late season severe outbreak.  Can't wait for the winter version!

[Niko]

This is not going to help the flooding situation in the Missouri River basin...  

 

 

Wow..4ft+ in spots...lotta water, for sure.

[Andie]

North Texas is enjoying 75* at Noon. Just awesome. Clear blue skies.

They're forecasting a high of 82* but I'm not buying that.

Low tonight should be near 60*.

 

Tomorrow it's back on our heads....High of 90*.

But were getting there. Slow but sure.

[Tom]

It's a stupendously, marvelous day out there today (70F/42F)  Not a cloud in the sky and it feels so comfortable to just sit outside and soak in that Vitamin D.  You don't often get back-to-back 100% sunny days in the Autumn, at least this year that is.  Our region is certainly getting spoiled by mother nature, but she's going to rear her ugly side this weekend!  The first time this season the Wind Chill factor is going to be heard and felt.  We have the Chicago marathon Sunday morning and it'll be a bit breezy and chilly for those folks.  I'm sure they would rather have the cooler weather than the heat we have seen in recent years.

[Tom]

The 21st time frame continues to show quite the system, maybe a little late season severe outbreak.  Can't wait for the winter version!

 

Mark my words, there will be monster winter storms this season my friend.  Hopefully we all can enjoy at least 1 or several (to make up for the last few seasons) this cold season!

[jaster220]

Mark my words, there will be monster winter storms this season!

Mark my words, there will be monster winter storms this season!

Mark my words, there will be monster winter storms this season!

Mark my words, there will be monster winter storms this season!

Mark my words, there will be monster winter storms this season!

 

     

 

 

[jaster220]

Mark my words, there will be monster winter storms this season!

Mark my words, there will be monster winter storms this season!

Mark my words, there will be monster winter storms this season!

Mark my words, there will be monster winter storms this season!

Mark my words, there will be monster winter storms this season!

 

     

 

Don't know about anyone else, but I'm ready to see more OBS like these! (even better if it's during the day)

 

[Niko]

Don't know about anyone else, but I'm ready to see more OBS like these! (even better if it's during the day)

 

20190125 KRMY Obs.PNG

I'm ready also

[Niko]

Currently at 58F under crystal clear skies

[Andie]

At 8:30 pm it's 66*. Awesome. Let's all sleep outside.

Low of 55* tonight

[Andie]

2 days at 91-92* then back down to 62* and a chance of rain.

 

It's that roller coaster period we get. It'll level out.

[Niko]

Temp attm is 53F and will drop into the 40s tanite, under moonlit skies.

[Niko]

Look at all of those places covered in Winter Alerts. Wow. Its been awhile since we had a map like this. AK is also experiencing Wintry weather.

[Andie]

2 days in the low 90's ahead. Lows in high 70's.

The usual Texas flip flop till the cool finally settles in.

 

It's been heaven though. Looking forward to next cool front.

It's comin'!

[Niko]

Current temps at 48F under sunny skies. Temps will rise to the upper 60s and possibly low 70s until Friday when the front moves in.

[Tom]

Took a nice long walk this morning around the neighborhood and it felt crisp and cool with a little bit of morning dew on the grass.  These cool and crisp nights followed by warm and sunny afternoons are really aiding in the fall colors.  I'm starting to see the maples turn bright red and orange.  Grateful for the gorgeous weather we have been having the past few days.  Get out and enjoy it!

 

On the other hand, we know what's coming and when flipping through the models, I found the temp animation below for late Thu into Fri resemble something from the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" when a wall of cold air rushes in.  I can only imagine what this is going to look like in future cycles.

[Niko]

Parts of northernmost Texas are under a Freeze Watch ( i.e., Amarillo, TX, Lubbock and also extreme northwestern parts of Oklahoma points  northward) wow. Enjoy it guys. You deserve this break from all of the hot weather you have been encountering.

[Niko]

Temps here are slowly rebounding into the low 50s w abundant sunshine. Colors are exploding as well on most trees.

[westMJim]

The overnight low at my house and GRR was 43° Yesterdays H/L at Grand Rapids was 69/44. So far this month the mean at GRR is 57.8 and that is a departure of +2.7° For today the record high is 84 set just last year and the record low is 23 set in 1989. The warmest minimum was also set last year at 66, and the record coldest maximum is 43 set in 1990.

[Andie]

Parts of northernmost Texas are under a Freeze Watch ( i.e., Amarillo, TX, Lubbock and also extreme northwestern parts of Oklahoma points northward) wow. Enjoy it guys. You deserve this break from all of the hot weather you have been encountering.

This will reach us tomorrow. Not a freeze but nice cool Fall weather.

This morning was gorgeous, cool. Afternoon may warm considerably but the front will take care of that!!

 

Everyone is panting for Fall !

[Niko]

Absolutely gorgeous outside. Temp is at 65F. Cannot ask for better weather than this.

[Andie]

We struggled our way up to 87*.

Windy. 20 mph.

[BrianJK]

Absolutely gorgeous outside. Temp is at 65F. Cannot ask for better weather than this.

Agreed. This is absolutely phenomenal. Wish there was a way to maintain this through thanksgiving. After that, bring on the cold and snow.

[Minny_Weather]

This has been a lovely stretch. I haven't closed my windows for 6 days. Likely won't close them again until Saturday. 65.8*F.

[Andie]

[Niko]

Agreed. This is absolutely phenomenal. Wish there was a way to maintain this through thanksgiving. After that, bring on the cold and snow.

I agree. That would be awesome and great timing to start the Met Winter season.

[Niko]

Currently at 55F under clear skies. Dropping into the 40s tanite.

[Niko]

This has been a lovely stretch. I haven't closed my windows for 6 days. Likely won't close them again until Saturday. 65.8*F.

As much as I would enjoy my windows open at night when sleeping, it has now gotten to the point where its a little too chilly at night to feel that crisp air, so I need to now close my windows at night and provide some needed heat from my thermostat (mind you very little at that).

[Niko]

This will reach us tomorrow. Not a freeze but nice cool Fall weather.

This morning was gorgeous, cool. Afternoon may warm considerably but the front will take care of that!!

 

Everyone is panting for Fall !

CF is coming. Get ready!

 

Btw: What is yr location

[Hawkeye]

There is now a freeze watch for my area, unfortunately.  This is the way it always works.  For days leading up to the cold, the NWS will keep lows in the mid 30s and talk about wind and maybe clouds holding the temp up, but then just before the cold arrives they lower the temps to the low 30s or even upper 20s and hoist the frost/freeze advisories.

[Clinton]

This morning is starting off with some nice thunderstorms, I may get in on some severe weather this afternoon.  Temps are suppose to crash this evening dropping from 72 to 48 in 1 hour!

[Tom]

Models are starting to pick up on the second system that rounds the base of the trough early the following week.  I've had my eyes on this one earlier this week and it looks like a classic "Miller B" storm track.  Let's see how it unfolds.  The blocking setting up is eye candy and allowing storms to track right through our Sub Forum and producing an extended period of BN temps starting this weekend into next.

 

The JMA weeklies are suggesting the SER to persist into Weeks 2-4 and I'm not sure I'm buying into it at the moment.  Given the pattern ongoing in the N PAC I'm expecting a large trough to encompass the eastern CONUS late month.  

 

Week 2 temps/precip...another temp gradient pattern looks to set up next week which is all to familiar how last year ended up.  Quite wet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Week 3-4 temp/precip...activity is suggested to pick up across the central/western PAC heading into late Oct/early Nov....

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Currently at 43F under a crystal clear morning.

[Niko]

This morning is starting off with some nice thunderstorms, I may get in on some severe weather this afternoon.  Temps are suppose to crash this evening dropping from 72 to 48 in 1 hour!

Now, that is what I call a drop!