October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully the upcoming trip to Spokane will prove to be soothing.

 

That will be during Nervous November. 

[Jesse]

That will be during Nervous November. 

 

I'm already all geared up for Dreading the potential destruction of the monopoly that white men have on power in our society December!

[Omegaraptor]

56 and cloudy here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm already all geared up for Dreading the potential destruction of the monopoly that white men have on power in our society December!

 

Don't pile on the most oppressed minority in our country.

 

We just got done with Self-loathing September.

[Front Ranger]

I post pictures of my dogs on social media! Sometimes playing, sometimes sleeping, sometimes trail hiking... I block everyone that posts political crap!

 

I post pictures of my dogs dressed up like an elephant and a donkey, fighting each other.

[Jesse]

I post pictures of my dogs dressed up like an elephant and a donkey, fighting each other.

 

Dog fighting is illegal in the state of Colorado. 

[Front Ranger]

Dog fighting is illegal in the state of Colorado. 

 

Used to be, but they snuck it in the marijuana legalization bill a few years ago.

[Jesse]

Used to be, but they snuck it in the marijuana legalization bill a few years ago.

 

I think the catch is they have to be on edibles, though.

[Front Ranger]

I think the catch is they have to be on edibles, though.

 

Exactly. Can't do much damage that way.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Next you will cite the Southern Poverty Law Center. 

 

Niskanen is a center-right think tank. It takes its name after one of president Reagan's advisors.

[Jesse]

Niskanen is a center-right think tank. It takes its name after one of president Reagan's advisors.

 

It goes against the narrative I'm comfortable with though, so it must be wrong.

[ShawniganLake]

Last year when?

Late September early October. In many cases The first snows of the season for the passes were before mid September last year. And it culminated with the early October trough. Deep snow and single digit lows in the south Cariboo

 

https://www.myprincegeorgenow.com/85178/winter-storm-warning-in-south-cariboo-as-power-outages-plague-100-mile-house/

[Deweydog]

Cliff Mass is on Lars! Tune in!

 

His voice is super annoying.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 61F in town, mostly cloudy and damp.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just today, it struck me how many trees have started to turn here in Bellingham. It didn't take long for the recent cool spell to have an effect on them.

 

Like ShawniganLake, I'm hoping to get a frost out of the coming event. Never got colder than 37°F here the past week.

[Jesse]

Cliff Mass is on Lars! Tune in!

 

His voice is super annoying.

 

I'm listening online!

 

It is. Especially in contrast to the smooth, poor man's John Tesh that is Lars.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Cliff Mass is on Lars!

 

Why am I not surprised?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Didn't Lars used to be on KATU?

 

Edit: No he was at KEZI and KVAL for a time here in EUG.

[Jesse]

Lars sounds significantly more full of sh*t than Cliff. But I think Cliff is letting him off a little easy with some of his statements.

[Phil]

Fair points. But it's also fair to point out that most of the ancient origin stories have about as much factual basis as the current popular scientific theories of origin. Where we, and everything else, originally came from is still a huge question mark that science is not able to answer. And many would argue it's the greatest question of all.

Hmmm...that depends what you’re talking about. If you’re looking for the origin of all existence and reality (IE the universe et al), well, you have to stop thinking of “time” as some linear, forward-flowing medium within which we exist...in which case yes, the question is unanswerable/infinite.

 

But as for why we/life exists on Earth..well that can be explained via the laws of chemistry and physics alone.

[Front Ranger]

Cliff Mass is on Lars! Tune in!

 

His voice is super annoying.

 

Probably the real reason he's being suppressed. 

[Deweydog]

Didn't Lars used to be on KATU?

 

Edit: No he was at KEZI and KVAL for a time here in EUG.

He was on KPTV back in the day.

[Deweydog]

Poor Cliff.

[Phil]

But I like rain...

 

Then again, the lowland western PNW gets little in the way of interesting weather. Rain (particularly ARs) is about the closest we can get that happens on a consistent basis. That might explain why I like it so much. Even that has been lacking since May 2017, of course.

In that case, wouldn’t you be rooting for something that *doesn’t* happen every other day? If it’s so common how is it “interesting”?

[Jesse]

In that case, wouldn’t you be rooting for something that *doesn’t* happen every other day? If it’s so common how is it “interesting”?

-Tim

[Front Ranger]

Hmmm...that depends what you’re talking about. If you’re looking for the origin of all existence and reality (IE the universe et al), well, you have to stop thinking of “time” as some linear, forward-flowing medium within which we exist...in which case yes, the question is unanswerable/infinite.

 

But as for why we/life exists on Earth..well that can be explained via the laws of chemistry and physics alone.

 

That's debatable. We know the ingredients, but we can only theorize how it all came together. That's part of science - if you can't replicate something through observation, experimentation, and data, you can't prove how it works. We haven't observed life organically coming into existence from non-living matter, and so far we can't synthetically make it happen in a lab either.

 

But beyond that, we still don't know where matter came from to begin with.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

But beyond that, we still don't know where matter came from to begin with.

 

The Big Bang.

[Phil]

A lot of talk from some on here about the "raging +PDO" this year, but according to NCDC's data (which is the only updated monthly data I can find), September was exactly neutral PDO, August was actually slightly negative, and overall 2019 has been very close to normal (the -.50 in February has been the biggest deviation from normal): https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

 

Per that data, the last time the PDO was raging positive was 2016...most of the 2014-16 period was quite positive.

NCDC’s PDO climatology is pretty sh*tty since they went over to ERSSTv4.

 

The JMA’s climatology and EOF for the PDO displays much more consistency of late. It’s hovering around +1 since May.

 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/decadal/pdo_month.html

[Phil]

The NCDC monthly PDO numbers vs JMA. Latter shows more consistency (especially in more recent years) than the former since the ERSST4 update.

 

[Front Ranger]

The Big Bang.

 

That's a physical theory on what caused the universe to expand. It doesn't explain what caused it or how the matter originally came into existence.

[Phil]

Downtown Portland just had its 6th wettest September in 148 years of records.

Thunderstorms and record cold to boot.

 

Still not enough, I guess.

[Phil]

That's debatable. We know the ingredients, but we can only theorize how it all came together. That's part of science - if you can't replicate something through observation, experimentation, and data, you can't prove how it works. We haven't observed life organically coming into existence from non-living matter, and so far we can't synthetically make it happen in a lab either.

 

But beyond that, we still don't know where matter came from to begin with.

Who says matter had to “come from” anywhere?

 

There doesn’t have to be a beginning.

[Phil]

The Big Bang.

The singularity through which the Big Bang occurred didn’t come from nothing. It was already everything.

 

So we’re back to attempting to answer a question that has no answer.

[Front Ranger]

NCDC’s PDO climatology is pretty sh*tty since they went over to ERSSTv4.

 

The JMA’s climatology and EOF for the PDO displays much more consistency of late. It’s hovering around +1 since May.

 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/decadal/pdo_month.html

 

I don't see more consistency, I just see a database that's been running higher since 2017.

 

Typically, in a raging +PDO historically, the north central Pacific would be running much cooler than it has been.

[Omegaraptor]

In that case, wouldn’t you be rooting for something that *doesn’t* happen every other day? If it’s so common how is it “interesting”?

Particularly referring to heavy rain here, which ARs bring. Drizzle is common and relatively uninteresting.

[Front Ranger]

Who says matter had to “come from” anywhere?

 

There doesn’t have to be a beginning.

 

Anything is possible if it's not provable. 

 

I think because we observe things with a beginning and end all of the time, the concept of a timeless universe is a very difficult one. And it still doesn't answer all the questions.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My buddy went on as a guest with Lars once and got totally destroyed. It was so bad his mom called in the next day and disowned him. It was funny because he was a huge Lars fan before that happened. It is always good to bring up for a good laugh at his expense.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Niskanen is a center-right think tank. It takes its name after one of president Reagan's advisors.

 

Next you will tell me Paul Ryan is a Republican! No seriously, maybe I will check it out and judge the validity. Would be interesting at least to see where they get their numbers from.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

The singularity through which the Big Bang occurred didn’t come from nothing. It was already everything.

 

So we’re back to attempting to answer a question that has no answer.

 

The whole "before" part renders the question probably meaningless, since a singularity comprising the entire mass (and mass that is now energy) of the universe would so dense and massive that time as we know it would not exist.

[Phil]

I don't see more consistency, I just see a database that's been running higher since 2017.

 

Typically, in a raging +PDO historically, the north central Pacific would be running much cooler than it has been.

Who said anything about a “raging” +PDO?

 

And the JMA’s data does display more interdecadal consistency. To deny that is to deny math.