SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Only 45 right now. Will probably be a cold night in the upper 20s if it clears out. Can't believe Oklahoma lost to K-State. lol Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Does anyone have ENSO 3.4 anomaly data in numeric table format prior to 1950? The site I used messed everything up and I can only find a pretty much worthless graph. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Windy! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 4 highly skilled and talented meteorologists including Mark Nelsen and Cliff Mass. You want to rebuke them?Who are the other two? And just because I’ve reached a different conclusion scientifically does not mean I’m “rebuking” them. It’s called a prediction..hypothesis testing. That’s what science is all about. If we were all in lockstep, that would be a bad sign. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Niño 3.4 has warmed ~ 1C since September on CDAS. Again, I think this is a borderline case. Not a healthy niño by any means if it becomes one. Whether this ends up warm neutral or weak niño is probably irrelevant. But there is no denying the +ENSO lean to things, IMO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Does anyone have ENSO 3.4 anomaly data in numeric table format prior to 1950? The site I used messed everything up and I can only find a pretty much worthless graph.Eric Webb (posts here as WebberWeather) has a website with all of this and more. Second link might be what you’re looking for. https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/inter-dataset_sst_standard_deviation__1851-2019_.xlsx 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 The 1850-1900 period was loaded with those warm neutral/weak niño type winters, many of which produced bigly in the PNW. Proxies (both sediment-based and tree-ring based across the Pacific from the Indo Pacific to to the West Coast) actually suggest weak-amplitude, multiyear +ENSO was the dominant background state throughout the LIA period..which makes sense given Hadley/Walker dynamics. Very wet in the SW US, frequent -NAO and the corresponding SW-Canada cold pool bleeding into the PNW. Inverse of the warm climate tendency towards the broad Hadley/ITCZ/4CH and +NAO/strong+poleward NPAC jet observed now and during the MWP. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 So there is a case to be made that the “true” system response to low solar under current orbital/continental boundary conditions is weaker, more-frequent +ENSO with the Pacific ITCZ/Hadley cell contracted/intensified (from a multidecadal standpoint) and a drawn down IPWP. And you could argue that, in the long run, this type of system state could produce more regularly in the PNW irrespective of ENSO than a high solar/warm climate type regime with the broadened ITCZ/HC and the more +NAM/poleward-consolidated jet, which would become more ENSO-reliant. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 A warm West and cold East scenario one week from today per the 12Z ECMWF. We can always count on you Tim. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 51 and partly cloudy at 2pm. Chilly north breeze. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 We can always count on you Tim. I am not that interested in cold... sort of boring to me. Need to track something. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 We can always count on you Tim. He is our reality check move along folks nothing to see here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I am not that interested in cold... sort of boring to me. Need to track something. I love the current trend but yes....would love some action in the form of some active storms this fall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 51 and partly cloudy at 2pm. Chilly north breeze.Up to 19 mph!51 here as well...we finally match! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 18z NAM continues the trend. The arctic trough is now centered in Idaho. The trend continues with the trough to slide west and the block to hold stronger. 18z GFS in 4 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Another snowfall in Spokane this morning - 3rd one by Oct. 26th. Has to be some kind of record. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 The cold shot into Montana looks pretty ridiculous on Tues-Weds. Lots of monthly records will be in jeopardy, for low maximums and for minimums. Places like Butte may see their first October maximums in 0's on record. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Beautiful in Woodinville today... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Also will need to watch for monthly state record low in Oregon with this one. Getting a real Halloween 2002 vibe. The current state record is -11 for the month, set at Seneca and Fort Rock in the 2002 cold wave. Might get close. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Another snowfall in Spokane this morning - 3rd one by Oct. 26th. Has to be some kind of record. Historic? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Historic?Historic would be snow on the Puyallup valley floor in early November. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Up to 19 mph!51 here as well...we finally match! North breeze has kicked up this afternoon a bit. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Another snowfall in Spokane this morning - 3rd one by Oct. 26th. Has to be some kind of record. They have almost similar winters and transition seasons as I do and I am still waiting for my first measurable snow in Klamath Falls right now. It was either their last one or first, sections of Spokane measured a half foot of snow. That is unbelievable for there I imagine. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 20 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Historic would be snow on the Puyallup valley floor in early November. It could happen in the swamp this year. I've been paying attention. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 The cold shot into Montana looks pretty ridiculous on Tues-Weds. Lots of monthly records will be in jeopardy, for low maximums and for minimums. Places like Butte may see their first October maximums in 0's on record. And Bozeman MSU. Record earliest is Oct 30th from 1935 which looks to be in jeopardy. Should be at least 10+ inches of snow on the ground here aiding in maximum airmass potential. 4 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Beautiful in Woodinville today... Going to see Andy? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 And Bozeman MSU. Record earliest is Oct 30th from 1935 which looks to be in jeopardy. Should be at least 10+ inches of snow on the ground here aiding in maximum airmass potential. I think Great Falls beat their earliest 0 record by a couple weeks on Oct 10th. Plus with some of the late September snow, Montana has had one hell of a Fall entrance I imagine. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 20 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 They have almost similar winters and transition seasons as I do and I am still waiting for my first measurable snow in Klamath Falls right now. It was either their last one or first, sections of Spokane measured a half foot of snow. That is unbelievable for there I imagine.My oldest brother will be there working after next summer for at least a couple years. Any words of wisdom for him? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Going to see Andy?Yes Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Latest Euro and Gfs runs. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I think Great Falls beat their earliest 0 record by a couple weeks on Oct 10th. Plus with some of the late September snow, Montana has had one hell of a Fall entrance I imagine. That's correct. We're talking highs in the 0's though this go-around, the Great Falls record was a low. If only we could get some clearing Tuesday night then we'd likely see lows drop into the -10's but it looks to stay pretty cloudy at this point. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 My oldest brother will be there working after next summer for at least a couple years. Any words of wisdom for him? Usually things are mild before Halloween (don't use 2019 as a normal). There is about a 5 month window for wintery weather, probably until mid March. Think they can still hit freezing lows in April but their weather is quite tolerable around 6-7 months out of the year. Since I am higher in elevation I believe Spokane can get a few degrees hotter for highs in July and slightly cooler lows in Dec. Despite what many locals have said here, it doesn't just go from summer to winter in a week. They don't know what they are talking about. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 20 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Gfs still has most of the cold too far East, but it’s a step in the right direction some of it gets into western WA. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Yeah druncle sliding east. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 It was very interesting driving back from Portland after the meeting today. It got down to 37 or so over Government camp...got up to 42 around Blue Box...then the temp rose to 44 or so the next 10 miles and it started to snow/graupel/hail almost all the way to Warm Springs. Looks like we have some convection firing up near me here in Culver so maybe I get a surprise dusting....who knows? Definitely fun for late Oct. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Siberian snow cover running higher than 2018 at this time. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 They have almost similar winters and transition seasons as I do and I am still waiting for my first measurable snow in Klamath Falls right now. It was either their last one or first, sections of Spokane measured a half foot of snow. That is unbelievable for there I imagine. Yeah, their snowstorms on Sept 28-29 (3.3") and Oct 8-9 (3.6") were their two biggest snowfalls on record for so early in the season. Kind of unreal on a whole new level. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Now 222 spotless days so far in 2019, surpassing last year’s total of 221. There were 268 in 2008. We have a chance to surpass that in December, needing just 47 additional spotless days with 65 days remaining in 2019. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Yeah, their snowstorms on Sept 28-29 (3.3") and Oct 8-9 (3.6") were their two biggest snowfalls on record for so early in the season. Kind of unreal on a whole new level. Most winters my first measurable ones are mid-November, and my earliest 1" was 10/21/2017. Never had more than one inch before Halloween. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 20 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Most of the west coast is free of any precipitation into the middle of November on the 18z GFS. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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