October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

I'm going to make a guess for PDX on Tuesday.

 

Daytime high = 38 (will be interesting to see if the midnight temp is below 40 or not)

 

Low = 30 (with wind)

 

Winds gusting to 45 - 50

 

I could be wrong, but this looks insane for that area.

38 under clear skies in October would have to be some type of record I assume!

[Blizzard777]

I spent 4 days at my cabin adding a 10x10 addition on the back and I have never done anything like this before but it turned out pretty good. I'm used to working with tools to work on cars not wood working. It was enjoyable to do something different with my hands that is not greasy and dirty! Still need to trim the corners and do flooring.

Nice work Snowmizer! 

I can smell the fresh wood

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I'm used to working with tools to work on cars not wood working.

 

Evidently some of those skills mapped over. Doubt I could do as well on my first try.

[Blizzard777]

I'm going to make a guess for PDX on Tuesday.

 

Daytime high = 38 (will be interesting to see if the midnight temp is below 40 or not)

 

Low = 30 (with wind)

 

Winds gusting to 45 - 50

 

I could be wrong, but this looks insane for that area.

46/35 but a cold windchill! 

Used to love watching the windchill on my Davis weather machine during the higher east wind events there in Troutdale.  

Should be in the 20s during this event or perhaps some upper teens

Anyhow it’s some action to watch during this nice sunny period 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Evidently some of those skills mapped over. Doubt I could do as well on my first try.

Like with anything the proper tools make the difference. The only advise I got from a friend was make everything straight and level from the first step to the last.

[Blizzard777]

Finally moved into our new house!

 

It was quite cold this morning. A station down the street shows it got down to 28. I'll be finding a spot to get my station back up and running today after the Hawks game. We are in a semi-protected area with trees and other houses surrounding us so it'll be tricky to get a spot not affected by those things.

Jesse is skilled in this sort of environment.....invite him up

Add high powered fans to add to the experience

[snow_wizard]

46/35 but a cold windchill! 

Used to love watching the windchill on my Davis weather machine during the higher east wind events there in Troutdale.  

Should be in the 20s during this event or perhaps some upper teens

Anyhow it’s some action to watch during this nice sunny period 

 

 

 

The reason I'm going so low for PDX is because the a cold air mass makes it's western most push right around there.  It evolves very explosively so it's going to be interesting to see.  Not hard to imagine this coming in colder than the NWS projections.  The WRF is probably too cold, but it might be onto something.

[FroYoBro]

Looks like PDX had a low of 33 last night. It was below freezing at my house. A breeze is starting to pickup now.

[snow_wizard]

Finally moved into our new house!

 

It was quite cold this morning. A station down the street shows it got down to 28. I'll be finding a spot to get my station back up and running today after the Hawks game. We are in a semi-protected area with trees and other houses surrounding us so it'll be tricky to get a spot not affected by those things.

 

Are you living in Carnation or in Maple Valley.  You have mentioned both.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like PDX had a low of 33 last night. It was below freezing at my house. A breeze is starting to pickup now.

 

SEA was pretty lame this time.  Only dropped to 39.

[FroYoBro]

The reason I'm going so low for PDX is because the a cold air mass makes it's western most push right around there. It evolves very explosively so it's going to be interesting to see. Not hard to imagine this coming in colder than the NWS projections. The WRF is probably too cold, but it might be onto something.

 

No way PDX will stay in the 30’s during the day. This is October, not December.

 

BUT the dry offshore push should be fairly impressive and enjoyable!

[snow_wizard]

Possible red alert on the ECMWF!  Looks VERY interesting at day 8.

[TT-SEA]

I live in the very SW corner of Maple Valley now.

Almost due to east of Jim then.

[snow_wizard]

No way PDX will stay in the 30’s during the day. This is October, not December.

 

BUT the dry offshore push should be fairly impressive and enjoyable!

 

It happened in 1935.

[snow_wizard]

I live in the very SW corner of Maple Valley now.

 

Pretty close to me.  Every tiny bit north of me helps a lot in some situations for snowfall.  Are you as far north as the National Cemetery?  That was the big dividing line with the final snow event last February.

 

This area can do exceedingly well for cold in a number of cases.  Much depends on the east winds up here.

[snow_wizard]

Day 9 Euro = Holy sheit!

 

The surface pressure graient through BC is insane.

[snow_wizard]

Could we actually see ANOTHER major Canadian cold front in early November.  We have already arrived at nearly unprecedented for season to date for those.

[snow_wizard]

On the ECMWF we get a cold shot at day 9 and then a reload on the way at day 10.  Crazy azz blocking.

[ShawniganLake]

Could we actually see ANOTHER major Canadian cold front in early November. We have already arrived at nearly unprecedented for season to date for those.

Would like to see everything shift a bit west. Enough with these Backdoor type deals.

[snow_wizard]

No, I'm south of 516 and north of Covington Sawyer Rd.

 

East winds are what I'm most interested in learning about and experiencing here. Very, very different from Carnation which is completely sheltered from East winds.

 

Oh....if your close to 4 Corners that can do very well for snow too.  The lines can be very tight around here.  I am still learning about the intricacies of the east wind here.  I have literally seen it be the cause of the warmest temps in Western WA and the coldest in Western WA in the same day.  When it comes to snow though less is usually WAY more.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Would like to see everything shift a bit west. Enough with these Backdoor type deals.

 

Not even all that impressive of a backdoor push either.

[snow_wizard]

Would like to see everything shift a bit west. Enough with these Backdoor type deals.

 

The setup shown on the ECMWF has huge potential.  Really major stuff.

[snow_wizard]

Not even all that impressive of a backdoor push either.

 

The general theme is the big deal right now.  Anyway the hammer is about to drop just after day 10 on that run.

[GHweatherChris]

The setup shown on the ECMWF has huge potential. Really major stuff.

Only impressive if it snows!

[ShawniganLake]

The setup shown on the ECMWF has huge potential. Really major stuff.

I actually am pretty interested how things evolve in that time frame. I think there’s a better chance for BC to turn cold than with this go around

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The general theme is the big deal right now.  Anyway the hammer is about to drop just after day 10 on that run.

 

Certainly looking good PDX north.

[High Desert Mat?]

Could we actually see ANOTHER major Canadian cold front in early November. We have already arrived at nearly unprecedented for season to date for those.

Jim, this is far from unprecedented. It happens. Your earlier post of it happened in 1935 is laughable. That’s almost a century ago. You’re the king of wishcasting. I love the enthusiasm though.

[ShawniganLake]

Certainly looking good PDX north.

Eugene in the screw zone?

[wx_statman]

Amazing that this is already the 2nd event of fall to produce 33 degrees (or lower) at PDX. We went from 1992 to 2019 with no 33 degree readings as early as 10/27...

[Blizzard777]

No, I'm south of 516 and north of Covington Sawyer Rd.

 

East winds are what I'm most interested in learning about and experiencing here. Very, very different from Carnation which is completely sheltered from East winds.

You will like east winds until it vaporizes your snow! 

[The Swamp]

The setup shown on the ECMWF has huge potential.  Really major stuff.

 

Major, like snow?

 

Or major, like frost monsters?

[GHweatherChris]

Major, like snow?

 

Or major, like frost monsters?

Frost monsters are lame

[snow_wizard]

Amazing that this is already the 2nd event of fall to produce 33 degrees (or lower) at PDX. We went from 1992 to 2019 with no 33 degree readings as early as 10/27...

 

Wow!

 

I thought this happens all the time according to some.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Would like to see everything shift a bit west. Enough with these Backdoor type deals.

 

I'm going to be in Asia for most of November, hoping the backdoors will be a thing of the past when I'm back in December. It's been interesting monitoring the weather over on that side of the world for awhile, lots of dynamics at play that I'd never even considered.

[snow_wizard]

Major, like snow?

 

Or major, like frost monsters?

 

It hints at possible big time stuff.  Keep in mind the time frame in question is pretty close to when 1955 unloaded on us.

[snow_wizard]

Interesting! I'm just down the road from 4 corners. Didn't know there was such a difference in temps/snow in such short areas around here. Excited to be able to start finding out all the little details.

 

The most amazing thing is the less than two miles between 4 Corners and Ravensdale.  Every time I drove through there with east winds blowing the temps would drop 2 degrees in that zone.

[Winterdog]

28F for a low this morning. Lots of frost. 47F now looking for 25F tomorrow morning. Tried the frost monster thing but it’s just too much work trying to get it to stay together.

[snow_wizard]

Jim, this is far from unprecedented. It happens. Your earlier post of it happened in 1935 is laughable. That’s almost a century ago. You’re the king of wishcasting. I love the enthusiasm though.

 

Sorry.  This doesn't happen all the time.  Give me some credit here.  I probably know more about our weather history than just about anyone on here except possibly Statman and Justin.

 

Please point out the years we had 3 (soon to be 4) intrusions of Canadian cold air this early in the season.  As for 1935...somebody made it sound like it was impossible for Portland to have a high below 40 in October.

[snow_wizard]

The air is really drying out today.  Should be quite the chilly night coming up.

[Deweydog]

Nice day!