October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Nah, you are honest.

He's wrong, though. It's seated, not seeded.

 

Google it

[stuffradio]

Do some research. You know Cliff Mass and Steve Pierce dont you?

 

They were on the same stage.

I don't know Steve Pierce.

[Guest CulverJosh]

He's wrong, though. It's seated, not seeded.

 

Google it

You are correct sir. I stand corrected on that.

[GHweatherChris]

[ShawniganLake]

Do some research. You know Cliff Mass and Steve Pierce dont you?

 

They were on the same stage.

Perhaps you could give a summary of what was discussed at the meeting you went to where these people spoke. That would be useful, or is it available somewhere?

[TacomaWaWx]

Wouldn’t be surprised if the Nws put a wind advisory up for the areas near the cascade foothills Monday night-Tuesday morning. Nws disc. Says forecasted winds are expected to be just at or below advisory criteria.

[TacomaWaWx]

Probably doesn’t bode well for temps getting terribly cold Tuesday morning here at my house either. Probably will be breezy here, maybe better luck Wednesday morning.

[Phil]

Nah, you are honest.

It’s fun watching you chase your own shadow.

 

Let me guess..9-11 was an inside job, HAARP is responsible for the blob, and Trump is a shape shifting lizard. Am I close? Do you see dead people too?

[GHweatherChris]

It’s fun watching you chase your own shadow.

 

Let me guess..9-11 was an inside job, HAARP is responsible for the blob, and Trump is a shape shifting lizard. Am I close? Do you see dead people too?

Oh phil, you are so silly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z ensembles was a HUGE step back. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Noticed the record high today in Eugene is from 1925.

[Deweydog]

Nice evening!

[snow_wizard]

52 degrees at 2:30pm. Excellent visibility today can see clear all the way to Mt.Baker from my house!

 

Today was absolutely perfect.  Crystal clear and as crisp as a freshly picked apple.  The average min this week is going to be very impressive for some.

[snow_wizard]

18z ensembles was a HUGE step back. 

 

Still huge uncertainty.  The SEA ensemble had 4 members drop to -11 or lower and a few more below -5.  The situation is one of great potential, but also one that will give the models fits.

[snow_wizard]

Probably doesn’t bode well for temps getting terribly cold Tuesday morning here at my house either. Probably will be breezy here, maybe better luck Wednesday morning.

 

Nobody is going to be decoupled Tuesday morning.  The WRF still shows it below freezing though.  My guess is probably mid 30s for many.  It's becoming increasingly likely Tuesday night will calm down when the really cold air is still in place.

[snow_wizard]

And, weather related.

 

Kyle Dittmer, among others. Forecasted that this winter will behave much more like a La Nina due to the low solar.

 

It is becoming more widely accepted solar is an important aspect.  Glad to see it.

[snow_wizard]

Wouldn’t be surprised if the Nws put a wind advisory up for the areas near the cascade foothills Monday night-Tuesday morning. Nws disc. Says forecasted winds are expected to be just at or below advisory criteria.

 

I think it will hit advisory levels, but probably not high wind warning criteria.  The gradient looks pretty impressive at the peak of the CAA.

[joelgombiner]

It is becoming more widely accepted solar is an important aspect. Glad to see it.

What is the physics of how solar fluctuations influence circulation? Small radiative anomalies compared to aerosols

[Jesse]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

57/32 for Springfield.

[High Desert Mat?]

You seem like you have anger issues.

He does. He blew up on me and and my brother in law today for him thinking that we think like liberals. It was really weird lol.

[snow_wizard]

What is the physics of how solar fluctuations influence circulation? Small radiative anomalies compared to aerosols

 

The theory is it slows down the atmosphere and allows more amplification.  For some reason it appears to favor oceanic ridges over continental ones.  That is demonstrated by the fact Alaska was actually warmer during the little ice age than it is now, while the PNW and NW Europe were colder.  There is still much to be learned about the exact mechanisms that cause low solar to equate to more amplification.  There is also a theory that increased cosmic rays during solar minimum cause more extensive and heavier cloud cover on a global average.

[snow_wizard]

57/32 for Springfield.

 

I ended up with 53 - 30 here.  Tomorrow should be more like 51 - 28 or so.

[High Desert Mat?]

I ended up with 53 - 30 here. Tomorrow should be more like 51 - 28 or so.

Score!!

[snow_wizard]

SEA has certainly decoupled.  A 7 degree drop in an hour there.  You don't see that very often there.

[Guest CulverJosh]

What is the physics of how solar fluctuations influence circulation? Small radiative anomalies compared to aerosols

I dont think they honestly know the physics. They ran 100 year models taking into account solar mins and maxes and the results were provocative.

[Guest CulverJosh]

He does. He blew up on me and and my brother in law today for him thinking that we think like liberals. It was really weird lol.

I was done getting personal on here but now I have to.

 

Between you and I, only one of us has been arrested for assault, and it wasnt me. You figure it out.

 

I am pretty sure I helped you out too, even though you stole money from me at the time. Lets be real here.

 

And to those observing. This was 25 years ago. I just dont want to hear the personal crap on her from my brother. Cheers.

[TacomaWaWx]

I ended up with 53 - 30 here. Tomorrow should be more like 51 - 28 or so.

Yeah I’m expecting it to get a couple degrees cooler tonight than last night here as well.

[snow_wizard]

I dont think they honestly know the physics. They ran 100 year models taking into account solar mins and maxes and the results were provocative.

 

I'm thinking of doing a post showing the results for two lowest winters of each solar cycle.  You have to go way back to find a cycle were either of the two winters ended up warmer than normal.

[The Swamp]

Wow.

[joelgombiner]

The theory is it slows down the atmosphere and allows more amplification. For some reason it appears to favor oceanic ridges over continental ones. That is demonstrated by the fact Alaska was actually warmer during the little ice age than it is now, while the PNW and NW Europe were colder. There is still much to be learned about the exact mechanisms that cause low solar to equate to more amplification. There is also a theory that increased cosmic rays during solar minimum cause more extensive and heavier cloud cover on a global average.

Fascinating. It sounds like the link to amplification is mostly a correlation that people have noticed, without a mechanism yet identified. cosmic ray flux in the atmosphere is also modulated by variations in earths magnetic field, so if that's important for clouds (which seems unlikely based on the much higher abundances of cloud particles vs. cosmic ray particles) then it would be more complicated than a simple correspondence to solar.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah I’m expecting it to get a couple degrees cooler tonight than last night here as well.

 

The WRF insists the highs tomorrow will be a bit lower as well.  Probably some inversion aspect creeping in.  Tuesday should be the day for pretty low max temps though.

[TacomaWaWx]

I think it will hit advisory levels, but probably not high wind warning criteria. The gradient looks pretty impressive at the peak of the CAA.

usually gets pretty breezy here in offshore wind set ups were pretty wind exposed from the East. Kind of messes up our overnight lows sometimes but the view of the sound is worth it.

[snow_wizard]

Fascinating. It sounds like the link to amplification is mostly a correlation that people have noticed, without a mechanism yet identified. cosmic ray flux in the atmosphere is also modulated by variations in earths magnetic field, so if that's important for clouds (which seems unlikely based on the much higher abundances of cloud particles vs. cosmic ray particles) then it would be more complicated than a simple correspondence to solar.

 

It has something to do with the cosmic rays actually splitting the molecules.  Pretty crazy stuff.

[joelgombiner]

It has something to do with the cosmic rays actually splitting the molecules. Pretty crazy stuff.

Cosmic rays (actually particles) can split *atoms* apart. Spallation reactions. The cosmic ray flux is just pretty low so I would be surprised if it's important for weather.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Fyi. It is pretty clear tonight. Get away from the city and we could see some northern lights. Here in Culver could be good. I may partake.

[snow_wizard]

The NWS is pretty much on board with the cold air intrusion.  They are forecasting high mostly in the 40s for the East Puget Sound Lowlands on Tuesday.  Sunny days with highs below 50 this early are pretty stinking rare.  They are forecasting some pretty solid low temps too.

[Phil]

What is the physics of how solar fluctuations influence circulation? Small radiative anomalies compared to aerosols

Complicated, to say the least. Multiple physical pathways, on multiple timescales, communicated via a multitude of internal system dynamics, in a highly nonlinear manner.

 

Not completely understood, but no way to fit it all in one post, haha.

[Phil]

I was done getting personal on here but now I have to.

 

Between you and I, only one of us has been arrested for assault, and it wasnt me. You figure it out.

 

I am pretty sure I helped you out too, even though you stole money from me at the time. Lets be real here.

 

And to those observing. This was 25 years ago. I just dont want to hear the personal crap on her from my brother. Cheers.

Oh ffs. Go to hell.

[High Desert Mat?]

 

I was done getting personal on here but now I have to.

 

Between you and I, only one of us has been arrested for assault, and it wasnt me. You figure it out.

 

I am pretty sure I helped you out too, even though you stole money from me at the time. Lets be real here.

 

And to those observing. This was 25 years ago. I just dont want to hear the personal crap on her from my brother. Cheers.[/quot

 

e]

 

Weird domebuster. Get kicked off again. I’m sure you will soon.