October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

One more pic from yesterday... from my parent's neighborhood in Bellingham. That is my daughter staring down a buck. She thought it was a lawn decoration... but it was very real.

 

[Blizzard777]

00z GEM Day 8 looks like a Goldfish Cracker. I dunno what it means!

 

 

 

Big time set back on the 00Z GFS ensembles. Don’t look unless you’re near a toilet

 

Was it the fish? 

[Timmy]

One more pic from yesterday... from my parent's neighborhood in Bellingham. That is my daughter staring down a buck. She thought it was a lawn decoration... but it was very real.

 

Careful they will be in the rut in the next couple weeks.

[Blizzard777]

29.6

decimal added for dramatics 

[TacomaWaWx]

29.6

decimal added for dramatics

 

32 over here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX is just pathetic. Winds go calm and they sit at 34 degrees for over 2 hours. lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EUG hits 27, SLE hits 28.

 

27 here too. My brother down in Coos County hit 27 in the small town of Coquille, located in the heart of Oregon's banana belt. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene is going to end October with 9 freezes...

[Blizzard777]

It’s official

29.5 = 29* currently 

 

3rd official freeze for me this month 

[Jesse]

PDX is just pathetic. Winds go calm and they sit at 34 degrees for over 2 hours. lol

Pretty impressive they will even approach a top 5 cold October all things considered.

[Jesse]

30 and frosty here currently.

[GHweatherChris]

28 and frosty.

[BLI snowman]

26 here. I see OLM hit 25 again and Meadow Glade just to my east hit 24.

[FroYoBro]

PDX is just pathetic. Winds go calm and they sit at 34 degrees for over 2 hours. lol

Yeah, I’m surprised it didn’t get lower during that time, especially since it hit 33 yesterday.

[Jesse]

Yeah, I’m surprised it didn’t get lower during that time, especially since it hit 33 yesterday.

 

40 years ago (before UHI was as much of an issue) they probably would have been good for 29-31 this morning.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Was it the fish?

 

It was altered by a Sharpie.

[Jesse]

It was altered by a Sharpie.

Nice work!

[MossMan]

33 for a low. Currently 35.

[Jesse]

Bumped down to 29 here a little after sunrise.

[ShawniganLake]

31F this morning. 30-32 looks like the range for outlying areas up this way this morning.

[Blizzard777]

It was altered by a Sharpie.

My kind of silliness!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS a bit colder than 6z, 00z.

 

[ShawniganLake]

On this day in 1991, it was 34/25 here with 3” of snow falling during the afternoon.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z WRF no changes. BIG east winds coming for areas east of I-205 and Foothills! It's really just incredible to see all models showing the arctic air blasting quickly into the Columbia Basin Monday evening with arctic air piling up against the Washington Cascades. The sudden increase in winds is nuts. I can't remember the last time we saw a true "blast" like this.

 

 

 

Going to be fun!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If the NWS forecast for Salem verifies through the end of the month they will end the month with a 49..5 monthly mean, which would be good for the 4th coldest in the 1892-present period of record 

 

They would only be behind 1893, 1919, 1949.  Currently only those 3 October's and 1969 have ever recorded an October mean below 50 at that location in 127 years of record keeping. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z WRF believe it or not is even a bit more aggressive with the arctic blast than 00z was last night. I wasn't expecting that wow. Perhaps picking up on what I've been noticing on IR Loop. Maybe.

Model comparison. 11 PM Tonight

12z

 

 

and 00z last night

[SilverFallsAndrew]

40 years ago (before UHI was as much of an issue) they probably would have been good for 29-31 this morning.

 

They did bump down to at least 33 it appears. 

 

Speaking of UHI, SLE seems to have forgotten its UHI this month. It has been kind of bizarre seeing them keeping pace and occasionally beating out EUG this month.

 

12z NAM guidance has PDX setting the all-time October low Wednesday night. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z WRF 8 AM Tuesday

IMPRESSIVE!

 

[Blizzard777]

12z WRF shows east wind gusts up to 51 mph near Enumclaw overnight tonight.

I’ve noticed over the years everyone can get slammed in the foothills east of me with east winds with trees down everywhere. Meanwhile in Federal Way so quiet you can hear a pin drop.  Good luck to all those worthy of the mighty east winds!  

I will be a spectator during this event

[TacomaWaWx]

I’ve noticed over the years everyone can get slammed in the foothills east of me with east winds with trees down everywhere. Meanwhile in Federal Way so quiet you can hear a pin drop. Good luck to all those worthy of the mighty east winds!

I will be a spectator during this event

Probably going to be atleast a light breeze all the way over here as well but not 45mph like the foothills. Sometimes in East wind events there’s no wind here then other times it can be really windy like February and early March.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

One more pic from yesterday... from my parent's neighborhood in Bellingham. That is my daughter staring down a buck. She thought it was a lawn decoration... but it was very real.

 

Kinda looks like it. You captured the moment at the right time.

[Deweydog]

It *may* never rain again.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM a touch colder Gorge/east.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs seems like it wants to bring in a still cool but wetter pattern around day 10.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gfs seems like it wants to bring in a still cool but wetter pattern around day 10.

 

Seems like it shows a warmer than normal solution to me but maybe it's a north/south situation.

[wx_statman]

Meanwhile in South Dakota, -4F this morning in Edgemont. Denver has been sitting in the 10's with snow falling since yesterday evening. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like it shows a warmer than normal solution to me but maybe it's a north/south situation.

 

Yeah that is a pretty mild pattern.

[TacomaWaWx]

Seems like it shows a warmer than normal solution to me but maybe it's a north/south situation.

Looking at it closer it actually shows slightly above normal even here, my mistake. Needed to wait for the rest of the run to load up to get a better picture.

[ShawniganLake]

Seems like it shows a warmer than normal solution to me but maybe it's a north/south situation.

Yeah, the SWerlies break through and it turns wet and mild with an AR pointed at BC and Washington. A plausible evolution.

 

Wouldn’t be good for Phil’s dry Fall